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New Glenn Update

blueorigin.com

141–150 of 154 posts

Re: New Glenn Update

#141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In India, decades after metric, many will only understand feet and inches for height, length etc.. Think it's the same in many Asian countries, though some have moved on. But miles has gone out of fashion. Pounds too..

Science progresses one funeral at a time.

The kids need to learn a new system first for things to change. Canada understood this. The US insists on teaching future generations imperial units, so it won't change quickly.

Re: New Glenn Update

#142
post #5
post #2

Interesting that "...additional vehicle upgrades include a reusable fairing..." I wonder how they'll be implementing that since SpaceX gave up on recapturing fairings (seemingly too soon, but only from the POV of someone with no internal info).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_fairing_recovery_progra... > SpaceX performs some amount of cleaning and refurbishing before using the previously flown fairings on a subsequent flight. SpaceX has reflown fairing halves more than 300 times, with one being reflown for 34 times. They gave up on catching them in nets, because it turns out they're fine splashing directly into the water.

They actually redesigned them to be able to handle the splash down.

Re: New Glenn Update

#143
post #136
post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have no choice. It’s the largest and most profitable sector of your market. If you don’t compete in it, SpaceX can subsidize Falcon Heavy launches with their Falcon 9 launches to put you out of business. I’m honestly not sure what Starship is designed for either. Despite all the hype, it might bankrupt SpaceX. Or seems like the poster child for second system syndrome.

I strongly suspect they already have been pricing Falcon Heavy launches below cost, with the exception of national security launches. IIRC spaceX claims that falcon heavy has a lower cost per kilogram to orbit than Falcon 9. I also suspect that they are burning capital everywhere and their margins are extremely thin. The charitable assessment of that is that they are being like Amazon and they know what they are doin…

Your expectations are wrong, and we know that because being selected for HLS included letting NASA go over their books and determining the odds of success financial.

Starlink is making money hand over fist.

Re: New Glenn Update

#144
post #65

I think Blue Origin's biggest problem is they don't currently have a planned or real Falcon 9 competitor. These expected and incremental updates (to a years late system that still needs to be proven) are putting the payload capacity in the Falcon Heavy range and there's roughly 1 Falcon Heavy launch per year. There are over 100 Falcon 9 launches per year. Yes a bunch are Starlink so you can exclude those when estimat…

Starship's maximum payload doesn't matter - it's cost per launch is all that matters, and with full reuse it will be cheaper to launch a medium payload on Starship than F9. SpaceX has already stated some of their launch contracts include the option to switch the launch vehicle to Starship from F9.

Re: New Glenn Update

#145
post #65

I think Blue Origin's biggest problem is they don't currently have a planned or real Falcon 9 competitor. These expected and incremental updates (to a years late system that still needs to be proven) are putting the payload capacity in the Falcon Heavy range and there's roughly 1 Falcon Heavy launch per year. There are over 100 Falcon 9 launches per year. Yes a bunch are Starlink so you can exclude those when estimat…

I assume they'll have figured out a deployment strategy for Project Kuiper where the unit economics works; there are advantages and disadvantages to launching more satellites, less frequently. SpaceX isn't that different in creating its own demand: the launch cadence of the Falcon 9 is so frequent mainly because they have a lot of their own satellites to launch. You can make money on infrequent launches of niche stuf…

Incorrect. Starship is predicated on the idea that reusing the second stage will let them lower the cost of launch another ten times and it won’t matter if you don’t fill Starship completely, it will still be the cheapest option.

Re: New Glenn Update

#146
post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not terribly familiar with the details, but Amazon kuiper has a contract with blue origin and other providers.

Sure, but Kuiper is launching on other rockets to meet an fcc deadline for using enough of their spectrum. They even launch on falcon 9. If other providers had the capacity to launch all of them, I'm sure falcon wouldn't be in the mix there.

Falcon wasn’t in the mix until Amazon faced a shareholder lawsuit for not contracting with the cheapest provider. I’m not sure if that is true given the volume limitations of F9, but the only hope Amazon has of getting to the FCC halfway point is a lot more F9 launches. No one else can launch fast enough.

Re: New Glenn Update

#147
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In India, decades after metric, many will only understand feet and inches for height, length etc.. Think it's the same in many Asian countries, though some have moved on. But miles has gone out of fashion. Pounds too..

Some of use in India don't even grok inches, miles, pounds, pints, ares or cubits. In fact, I haven't met anyone in the professional fields (science, engineering and medicine) who is comfortable with imperial or any other non-metric systems. Not even our parents are comfortable with them. It was a nightmare when we were faced with such units in public exams. That's an arcane skill that disappeared 3 or 4 generations…

Yes in a large country it could be regional variations.

Re: New Glenn Update

#148
post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In India, decades after metric, many will only understand feet and inches for height, length etc.. Think it's the same in many Asian countries, though some have moved on. But miles has gone out of fashion. Pounds too..

Some of use in India don't even grok inches, miles, pounds, pints, ares or cubits. In fact, I haven't met anyone in the professional fields (science, engineering and medicine) who is comfortable with imperial or any other non-metric systems. Not even our parents are comfortable with them. It was a nightmare when we were faced with such units in public exams. That's an arcane skill that disappeared 3 or 4 generations…

Its not uniform across domains. For example in Singapore or Hong Kong if you ask someone's height it's CM but flat apartment area or price is psf. Ounces are unknown. I guess it's same in India.

Re: New Glenn Update

#149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume they'll have figured out a deployment strategy for Project Kuiper where the unit economics works; there are advantages and disadvantages to launching more satellites, less frequently. SpaceX isn't that different in creating its own demand: the launch cadence of the Falcon 9 is so frequent mainly because they have a lot of their own satellites to launch. You can make money on infrequent launches of niche stuf…

Incorrect. Starship is predicated on the idea that reusing the second stage will let them lower the cost of launch another ten times and it won’t matter if you don’t fill Starship completely, it will still be the cheapest option.

And the unit economics of a smaller launch vehicle with a reusable second stage would be better still, especially since rapid launch cadences are what SpaceX does best. They've built it big because they think the demand exists.

Re: New Glenn Update

#150
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I strongly suspect they already have been pricing Falcon Heavy launches below cost, with the exception of national security launches. IIRC spaceX claims that falcon heavy has a lower cost per kilogram to orbit than Falcon 9. I also suspect that they are burning capital everywhere and their margins are extremely thin. The charitable assessment of that is that they are being like Amazon and they know what they are doin…

Your expectations are wrong, and we know that because being selected for HLS included letting NASA go over their books and determining the odds of success financial. Starlink is making money hand over fist.

Chosen by an administration known for careful due diligence amirite?
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