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Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

crazystupidtech.com

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Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#91
post #81

From what I remember, in past bubbles that burst, everyone thought stocks will go up forever. So, if people are wondering out loud (with widespread traction) if there's a bubble, there's probably not one. It may be self-fulfilling. The awareness of a potential bubble influences us to be more cautious.

No, there's never been a time where everyone was saying "stocks will go up forever" then. Even in the late 90's, as momentum was accumulating towards what would eventually burst as the dot-com bubble, a Very Central Figure in the whole thing was warning about "irrational exuberance" in the market but didn't have safe tools do anything about it.

For the last most explosive bubbles -- "dot-com" (~2000) and "housing" (~2008) -- you can go back and find all sorts of warnings and critiques and fretting and skepticism in newspapers, academic and industry journals, blogs, television, personal ephemera, etc. And not too far from almost all the examples you find, you'll also find somebody blowing off the skepticism.

The tricky part is that you can more or less find similar dialog in all those sources even when there didn't turn out to be a looming collapse. There's just always people worrying about collapse or hard correction when the markets are running hot and always people blowing them off, and sometimes worriers prove right. Eventually. And sometimes they don't, and the underlying economy either catches up with the market or government policy successfully props it up for long enough that some other concern dominates or some other industry can absorb the over-allocated investment.

Basically, it turns out your heuristic for spotting a bubble faces too much noise and isn't actually all that informative at all.

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#92

I think I'm asking for the impossible here... But is anyone trying to hedge risk in their personal finances? I'm not a real "investor" (index funds only) but I am feeling more willing to forgo gains to be more risk averse just based on my own neuroses. Maybe I cash out and buy T-bills? Gold? Bullets? What's the non-crazy person equivalent?

It’s pretty unpopular, but a properly designed whole life insurance policy is a good stable, growing asset. You can borrow against it at reasonable rates, and it makes a good rainy day fund and risk buffer. You can generally annuitize them later if you wish, providing a stress reduction in retirement which is correlated with longer life, iirc, though that could simply be due to selection bias.

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#93

I think I'm asking for the impossible here... But is anyone trying to hedge risk in their personal finances? I'm not a real "investor" (index funds only) but I am feeling more willing to forgo gains to be more risk averse just based on my own neuroses. Maybe I cash out and buy T-bills? Gold? Bullets? What's the non-crazy person equivalent?

Property. It is the one thing they cannot produce more of.

That's what they said in 2007.

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of them have big revenues; not earnings.

that's not true; check the (edit: historical) PE ratios for the big names referenced in this post.

Ah. Yep. They mention NVDA, MSFT, GOOG, etc. I was thinking of the startup world and OpenAI, Grok, etc. The giant cash machines of FAMOG will probably come out well positioned when the dust settles.

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#95
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which jobs is it doing, exactly? From what I can tell at this point it's a solution looking for a problem. Incredibly impressive, not so useful

Customer service.

You cannot trust GenAI to do this job, so no, it's not doing this job

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#96
post #35

No, it doesn’t. Go and actually read the crazy story about startups like Global Crossing. Crazy amount of funding, little to no revenue, no competitive moat, no demand. Compare that to today, and you see only the crazy amount of funding part is the same.

> Crazy amount of funding, little to no revenue, no competitive moat, no demand. Doesn't this also describe Thinking Machines Lab?

What is its stock trading at?

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#97

I think I'm asking for the impossible here... But is anyone trying to hedge risk in their personal finances? I'm not a real "investor" (index funds only) but I am feeling more willing to forgo gains to be more risk averse just based on my own neuroses. Maybe I cash out and buy T-bills? Gold? Bullets? What's the non-crazy person equivalent?

During covid you probably wanted a 70/30 split so you didn't get eaten by inflation, but I think 60/40 is probably a safer bet for the average person right now. I'd consider pulling back to 50/50 over the next 6 months to a year so you can loss harvest and skip the capital gains. I'd also consider moving money you don't expect to need anytime in the next decade into real estate.

I'm not really an investor btw, this is just my intuition. I'm curious what others here are doing.

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#98
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Property. It is the one thing they cannot produce more of.

Real Estate is currently trading at the highest price to earnings ratios ever recorded.

Yeah, not sure how valuable lots of real estate is if there aren't any high-paying jobs nearby, in part due to AI.

And this isn't even about the total number of high-paying jobs. Even having too much income concentration (fewer, but higher paying jobs) will mean that there's less demand at the margin. To put it another way, if the job growth in say, silicon valley, starts to reverse because of AI, there will still be newcomers, but not enough to buy out the available housing at an ever increasing price.

If the price trend ever reverses and holds that way long enough to seem like a new normal, I suspect the price will suddenly correct downwards. Everyone holding on to real estate as an investment will have a great reason to sell once it becomes a depreciating asset. If it goes on long enough, people will be underwater on housing and start walking away.

The price trend is already somewhat flattened, which reduces FOMO. Why buy now when AI is uncertain and the price seems pretty flat?

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#99
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which jobs is it doing, exactly? From what I can tell at this point it's a solution looking for a problem. Incredibly impressive, not so useful

Customer service.

Only for the most basic of requests. I have interacted with a fair share of AI front loaded customer service chat portals and they are often misleading, sending outright incorrect info (telling us that the dev team would work on it even when they weren't going to) and I almost always just want to talk to an agent. Yes, it's a good first layer to prevent people who haven't even bothered to read any FAQ or informational pages, but it's not doing real customer service work.

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#100
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which jobs is it doing, exactly? From what I can tell at this point it's a solution looking for a problem. Incredibly impressive, not so useful

Customer service.

Is it? https://www.forbes.com/sites/quickerbettertech/2025/05/18/bu...
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