81–90 of 215 posts
So, if people are wondering out loud (with widespread traction) if there's a bubble, there's probably not one. It may be self-fulfilling. The awareness of a potential bubble influences us to be more cautious.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've always used value-tilted indexes, and am hoping that they will suffer less when the bubble pops. With that and a healthy dose of fixed income (which I chose years ago based on an assumption that the equity portion of the portfolio could drop 50% in a downturn at any time) I'm trying to stick to the plan and not try to time the market. Even though it very much feels like the bubble is near its peak (if not just p…
What sort of fixed income that doesn't require much research? A broad bond fund? What are the implications of bond prices in this dubious interest rate environment? It seems no one knows what the Fed should or wants to do, including the Fed. And if the economy is on shaky ground, won't that be bad for bonds if companies can default?
You're not expecting it to earn much, but it should hold its value over the long term. This will reduce the expected return of the portfolio, but the goal is to get volatility to a level you can stomach, allowing you to ride out fluctuations on the equity side. Because even though we can all look at the current situation and say the stock market appears overvalued, we can't know how much higher it will go, when we've hit the top, or once it starts declining, when we've hit the bottom. Even experts do no better than luck would dictate at that game.
Webvan → Instacart, DoorDash, Amazon Fresh
Kozmo.com → Postmates, Uber Eats, Gopuff
Boo.com (fashion) → Farfetch, Net-a-Porter, ASOS
Broadcast.com → YouTube, Netflix, Twitch
The dot-com bubble didn’t prove the internet was a fad — it proved the internet was inevitable, but the valuations assumed adoption would happen in 2 years instead of 15–20. To me it feels like the AI inevitability will be much quicker.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I've always used value-tilted indexes, and am hoping that they will suffer less when the bubble pops. With that and a healthy dose of fixed income (which I chose years ago based on an assumption that the equity portion of the portfolio could drop 50% in a downturn at any time) I'm trying to stick to the plan and not try to time the market. Even though it very much feels like the bubble is near its peak (if not just p…
I would stay away from US fixed income due to low spreads, higher than usual inflation and a devaluing currency in forex. I'd say ex-US international value stocks, especially EU, are a better hedge.
I think I'm asking for the impossible here... But is anyone trying to hedge risk in their personal finances? I'm not a real "investor" (index funds only) but I am feeling more willing to forgo gains to be more risk averse just based on my own neuroses. Maybe I cash out and buy T-bills? Gold? Bullets? What's the non-crazy person equivalent?
Pets.com→Chewy Webvan → Instacart, DoorDash, Amazon Fresh Kozmo.com → Postmates, Uber Eats, Gopuff Boo.com (fashion) → Farfetch, Net-a-Porter, ASOS Broadcast.com → YouTube, Netflix, Twitch The dot-com bubble didn’t prove the internet was a fad — it proved the internet was inevitable, but the valuations assumed adoption would happen in 2 years instead of 15–20. To me it feels like the AI inevitability will be much qui…
AI is accelerating "let them eat cake" at rates never seen before in history, so I imagine the violence will follow soon after
I think I'm asking for the impossible here... But is anyone trying to hedge risk in their personal finances? I'm not a real "investor" (index funds only) but I am feeling more willing to forgo gains to be more risk averse just based on my own neuroses. Maybe I cash out and buy T-bills? Gold? Bullets? What's the non-crazy person equivalent?
Property. It is the one thing they cannot produce more of.
It’s not as if there were ten million people using and/or building on the Internet, and then this bubble popped and for some years there were only ten thousand people on the Internet.
And I think the same is true for „AI usage/adoption“.
Wow, what a sentence. It starts out bad and just gets worse.