61–70 of 215 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
GPUs have massive applications such as Alphafold, CRISPR, Medical Imaging, Meteorology. The massive planetary investment is not to make more AI chats that summarize text. That's just short sighted.
That’s copium, as the kids say nowadays. The massive planetary investment is a 100% for AI chats. All those other things are taking the crumbs where they can.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The implied promise was that these things were going to “revolutionize the workplace” i.e. massively automate middle class office jobs A couple of years down the road, their useful applications still are summarizing text, transferring style to text, generating code under strict supervision, and generating images that need retouching. That’s a lot to get out of a tool, but it’s dubious that investors were pouring tril…
> thinking of automating away junior software engineers and low end design work. And it's really still very arguable imo if it's even doing this Like you said, it still needs strict supervision. In my opinion it is not a good use of your supervisory time to be babysitting an LLM versus mentoring actual juniors
Right. Because at least juniors are supposed to learn and at some point become senior and stop needing this kind of supervision. Also, interacting with people can be more rewarding (or not, depending on the people)…
To say whether it's a bubble, we need to know the value of the technology. The value of modern AI seems very high. That nobody knows how high, that they still haven't figured out applications, and that the technology and its tools are still far from refined, is normal for any new technology. If you add the value of the potential political power gained by controlling AI, then the value to the owners and investors is a…
The implied promise was that these things were going to “revolutionize the workplace” i.e. massively automate middle class office jobs A couple of years down the road, their useful applications still are summarizing text, transferring style to text, generating code under strict supervision, and generating images that need retouching. That’s a lot to get out of a tool, but it’s dubious that investors were pouring tril…
I grew up in the 90's and remember being a computer nerd BEFORE the .com bubble, and starting my career precisely after it burst. Let me tell you one difference I personally am experiencing that differentiates the two. Note, this is a pro-'we're in a bubble' stance: In the late 90's and early 2000's, businesses were SALIVATING to get online, individuals were finding new ways to benefit and profit from it, and massive…
To say whether it's a bubble, we need to know the value of the technology. The value of modern AI seems very high. That nobody knows how high, that they still haven't figured out applications, and that the technology and its tools are still far from refined, is normal for any new technology. If you add the value of the potential political power gained by controlling AI, then the value to the owners and investors is a…
Absolutely nothing in your list prevents the AI from being a bubble. The Internet is an absolute marvel of engineering that completely changed the life of the majority of people in the world, and yet it crashed 25 years ago, and crashed hard. Both can be true at the same time.
I think I'm asking for the impossible here... But is anyone trying to hedge risk in their personal finances? I'm not a real "investor" (index funds only) but I am feeling more willing to forgo gains to be more risk averse just based on my own neuroses. Maybe I cash out and buy T-bills? Gold? Bullets? What's the non-crazy person equivalent?
I think I'm asking for the impossible here... But is anyone trying to hedge risk in their personal finances? I'm not a real "investor" (index funds only) but I am feeling more willing to forgo gains to be more risk averse just based on my own neuroses. Maybe I cash out and buy T-bills? Gold? Bullets? What's the non-crazy person equivalent?
For this round I've bought (well, bought and sold, and now waiting to buy via an order) puts on a semiconductor ETF. Since I own some of the stocks, if it goes sky high still I win, if it crashes I win, and if nothing happens I'll have to sell it 30 days before it expires to avoid the theta decay, which starts to really bite in that last month.
No one knows anything - which is the environment I'm learning to operate it.
A very conservative investor, say a boglehead or a 'value investor' would tell you to buy in an index fund and not look, unless you know for sure what you are doing and have done insane research on a company and it's priced low. They would say, buy VTI or VOO if you don't need the money within 5 years, and stop looking at it. Oh, and DCA into it versus all at once.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The implied promise was that these things were going to “revolutionize the workplace” i.e. massively automate middle class office jobs A couple of years down the road, their useful applications still are summarizing text, transferring style to text, generating code under strict supervision, and generating images that need retouching. That’s a lot to get out of a tool, but it’s dubious that investors were pouring tril…
How many people graduate from a US software engineering degree each year? About 100k? If they (the 100k in the US) earn $100k each in the first year, before gaining the skills to earn more, that's $10 billion a year, every year. If you can capture that market for next 20 years, it's worth $200 billion. Except… can you capture it? A junior dev is… not exactly someone you want connecting to your business-critical datab…
that's like 5% of NVIDIA's current market cap. sounds like peanuts when you lay it out like that
I think I'm asking for the impossible here... But is anyone trying to hedge risk in their personal finances? I'm not a real "investor" (index funds only) but I am feeling more willing to forgo gains to be more risk averse just based on my own neuroses. Maybe I cash out and buy T-bills? Gold? Bullets? What's the non-crazy person equivalent?
Gold is only for very rich people if you want to have something in the case the whole economy goes to the bin.
Bullets if you are paranoid.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
The implied promise was that these things were going to “revolutionize the workplace” i.e. massively automate middle class office jobs A couple of years down the road, their useful applications still are summarizing text, transferring style to text, generating code under strict supervision, and generating images that need retouching. That’s a lot to get out of a tool, but it’s dubious that investors were pouring tril…
You forgot - cheating on job interviews, writing resumes to be repetitive, and adding an annoying flowery tone to non-native English speakers who think AI wrote something for them that isn't AI-obvious.
There’s probably a good business usecase there for companies wanting to have smoother communication with offshore teams.
Could that be a game-changer? I wouldn’t discount it, but it does sound like something that has to operate at a very low margin and that doesn’t merit a lot more investment.