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Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

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11–20 of 449 posts

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#11
post #5

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

This is part of how free markets self correct, misallocate resources and you run out of resources. You can blame irrational exuberance, bubbles, or whatnot markets are ultimately individual choices times economic power. Ai, Crypto, housing, Dotcom etc going back through history all had excess because it’s not obvious when to join and when to stop.

Usually companies run out of resources before they screw up global prices in massive markets.

If it was a couple billion dollars of memory purchasing nobody would care.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#12

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

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Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#13

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

It is a weird form of centralized planning. Except there's no election to get on to the central committee, it's like in the Soviet era where you had to run in the right circles and have sway in them. There's too much group-think in the executive class. Too much forced adoption of AI, too much bandwagon hopping. The return-to-office fad is similar, a bunch of executives following the mandates of their board, all becau…

[dead]

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#14

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

It is a weird form of centralized planning. Except there's no election to get on to the central committee, it's like in the Soviet era where you had to run in the right circles and have sway in them. There's too much group-think in the executive class. Too much forced adoption of AI, too much bandwagon hopping. The return-to-office fad is similar, a bunch of executives following the mandates of their board, all becau…

If you get paid for being rich in proportion to how rich you are -- because that's how assets work -- it turns into an exponential, runs away, and concentrates power until something breaks.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#15
post #4

If we're going to see retailers price-gouging on DDR5, maybe people will be willing to buy slightly older gear with DDR4 (and corresponding motherboard and CPU). Especially for systems for which the workloads are actually bound by GPU compute, network, or storage.

I'm still on DDR4 but I hope this price gouging will be over by the time I need to finally upgrade :( I have a Ryzen so I did upgrade to the latest AM4 generation.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#16
post #9

All I can say is, - the insane frothing hype behind AI is showing me a new kind of market failure - where resources can be massively misallocated just because some small class of individuals THINK or HOPE it will result in massive returns. Even if it squeezes out every single other sector that happens to want to use SDRAM to do things OTHER than buffer memory before it's fed into a PCIE lane for a GPU. - I'm really R…

I wonder, is there any way to avoid this kind of market failure? Even a planned economy could succumb to hype - promises that improved societal efficiency are just around the corner.

There is a way, and if anyone tells you we have to go full Hitler or Stalin to do it they are liars because last time we let inequality cook this hard FDR and the New Deal figured out how to thread the needle and proved it could be done.

Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be the flavor of politics on tap at the moment.

Sam Altman cornering the DRAM market is a joke, of course, but if the punchline is that they were correct to invest this amount of resources in job destruction, it's going to get very serious very quickly and we have to start making better decisions in a hurry or this will get very, very ugly.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#17
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is part of how free markets self correct, misallocate resources and you run out of resources. You can blame irrational exuberance, bubbles, or whatnot markets are ultimately individual choices times economic power. Ai, Crypto, housing, Dotcom etc going back through history all had excess because it’s not obvious when to join and when to stop.

Usually companies run out of resources before they screw up global prices in massive markets. If it was a couple billion dollars of memory purchasing nobody would care.

> Usually companies run out of resources before they screw up global prices in massive markets.

It happens more often than you might expect.

The Onion Futures Act and what led to it is always a fun read: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onion_Futures_Act

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#18
Well, patience as a consumer might pay off in the next year or so when the music stops and hyperscalers are forced to dump their inventories.

There still isn't a clear path to profitability for any of these AI products and the capital expenditure has been enormous.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#19
post #4

If we're going to see retailers price-gouging on DDR5, maybe people will be willing to buy slightly older gear with DDR4 (and corresponding motherboard and CPU). Especially for systems for which the workloads are actually bound by GPU compute, network, or storage.

DDR4 will be just as expensive because it's made in the same fabs.

Re: Samsung's 60% DRAM price hike signals a new phase of global memory tightening

#20
post #6

I'm so mad about this, I need DDR5 for a new mini-PC I bought and prices have literally gone up by 2.5x.. 128GB used to be 400$ in June, and now it's over $1,000 for the same 2x64GB set.. I have no idea if/when prices will come back down but it sucks.

Damn I bought a whole computer with 128GB RAM & 16-core Ryzen CPU for £325 a few months ago.
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