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Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

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Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#11

Post by bluefirebrand »

forgetfulness wrote: post #6
mmooss wrote: post #2

To say whether it's a bubble, we need to know the value of the technology. The value of modern AI seems very high. That nobody knows how high, that they still haven't figured out applications, and that the technology and its tools are still far from refined, is normal for any new technology. If you add the value of the potential political power gained by controlling AI, then the value to the owners and investors is a…

The implied promise was that these things were going to “revolutionize the workplace” i.e. massively automate middle class office jobs A couple of years down the road, their useful applications still are summarizing text, transferring style to text, generating code under strict supervision, and generating images that need retouching. That’s a lot to get out of a tool, but it’s dubious that investors were pouring tril…

> thinking of automating away junior software engineers and low end design work.

And it's really still very arguable imo if it's even doing this

Like you said, it still needs strict supervision. In my opinion it is not a good use of your supervisory time to be babysitting an LLM versus mentoring actual juniors

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#12

Post by chasing0entropy »

The internet was monumental and valuable, offering instant conveyance of media and data. AI is monumental, allowing instant access to near infinite data; but whether instant access is as valuable as instant conveyance yet alone five times the value, appears to be the question

Honestly anyone who thinks AI has intrinsic value to rival the GDP of nations is a bagholder in denial and I'll be happy to buy your puts.

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#14

Post by more_corn »

Ok, so if that prediction is true what actions did you take?

Identify the therefore part of the prediction and enumerate the three highest priority steps.

Have you determined that the stock market will crash and bought positions accordingly? Have you sold all your nvidia stock? What are the implications in the broader economy and what steps have you taken?

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#15

Post by ares623 »

forgetfulness wrote: post #6
mmooss wrote: post #2

To say whether it's a bubble, we need to know the value of the technology. The value of modern AI seems very high. That nobody knows how high, that they still haven't figured out applications, and that the technology and its tools are still far from refined, is normal for any new technology. If you add the value of the potential political power gained by controlling AI, then the value to the owners and investors is a…

The implied promise was that these things were going to “revolutionize the workplace” i.e. massively automate middle class office jobs A couple of years down the road, their useful applications still are summarizing text, transferring style to text, generating code under strict supervision, and generating images that need retouching. That’s a lot to get out of a tool, but it’s dubious that investors were pouring tril…

Not only that, but it’s devaluing the sacred cows of the very same companies that are investing heavily.

Search is dead or dying

Social media is dead or dying

Content creation is dead or dying

If they cant make AI work, then they are left with AI at a level that continues to devalue their core business.

They have no choice. They made a deal with the devil. And the devil means to collect.

This is why I think Apple is lucky their attempt failed so bad. They dodged a bullet. They have an opportunity to guide a lost tech industry through a post AI bubble world.

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#16

Post by redwood »

mmooss wrote: post #2

To say whether it's a bubble, we need to know the value of the technology. The value of modern AI seems very high. That nobody knows how high, that they still haven't figured out applications, and that the technology and its tools are still far from refined, is normal for any new technology. If you add the value of the potential political power gained by controlling AI, then the value to the owners and investors is a…

The value can be incredibly high... just like the value of the internet was incredibly high.. and it can still be a finanfial bubble. I feel like the people arguing against the bubble perspective are saying look the internet was actually valuable and so too will this.. and that's totally a valid perspective. The bubble is not about whether there's value but about whether or not the market will come down. All of the above can totally happen

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#17

Post by lagosfractal42 »

forgetfulness wrote: post #6
mmooss wrote: post #2

To say whether it's a bubble, we need to know the value of the technology. The value of modern AI seems very high. That nobody knows how high, that they still haven't figured out applications, and that the technology and its tools are still far from refined, is normal for any new technology. If you add the value of the potential political power gained by controlling AI, then the value to the owners and investors is a…

The implied promise was that these things were going to “revolutionize the workplace” i.e. massively automate middle class office jobs A couple of years down the road, their useful applications still are summarizing text, transferring style to text, generating code under strict supervision, and generating images that need retouching. That’s a lot to get out of a tool, but it’s dubious that investors were pouring tril…

GPUs have massive applications such as Alphafold, CRISPR, Medical Imaging, Meteorology.

The massive planetary investment is not to make more AI chats that summarize text. That's just short sighted.

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#18

Post by DuperPower »

forgetfulness wrote: post #6
mmooss wrote: post #2

To say whether it's a bubble, we need to know the value of the technology. The value of modern AI seems very high. That nobody knows how high, that they still haven't figured out applications, and that the technology and its tools are still far from refined, is normal for any new technology. If you add the value of the potential political power gained by controlling AI, then the value to the owners and investors is a…

The implied promise was that these things were going to “revolutionize the workplace” i.e. massively automate middle class office jobs A couple of years down the road, their useful applications still are summarizing text, transferring style to text, generating code under strict supervision, and generating images that need retouching. That’s a lot to get out of a tool, but it’s dubious that investors were pouring tril…

its helping people be more productive but its not helping firing people which was the wet dream

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#19

Post by skeeter2020 »

more_corn wrote: post #14

Ok, so if that prediction is true what actions did you take? Identify the therefore part of the prediction and enumerate the three highest priority steps. Have you determined that the stock market will crash and bought positions accordingly? Have you sold all your nvidia stock? What are the implications in the broader economy and what steps have you taken?

I've thought about and asked this question. One potential idea: AI was sold as the "death of SaaS" and hit their share prices accordingly. If you think this is not true (at least in the near to mid-term) you could buy stock at (what you perceive as) a discount. I might look at a company like Constellation (a big vertically integrated portfolio of mature, decent revenue-generating SaaS) as a proxy for a fund focused on this strategy.

This sort of approach is pretty aggressive and definitely contrarian to the general market, but some alternatives to mitigate the coming pain (if you believe it's near) would be shifting into a more liquid position to take advantage of tightening liquidity, i.e. big companies may see their shares tank but will likely still be able to service their debt. In the meantime you'll miss out on a market that still seems pretty strong.

Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?

#20

Post by ares623 »

lagosfractal42 wrote: post #17
forgetfulness wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The implied promise was that these things were going to “revolutionize the workplace” i.e. massively automate middle class office jobs A couple of years down the road, their useful applications still are summarizing text, transferring style to text, generating code under strict supervision, and generating images that need retouching. That’s a lot to get out of a tool, but it’s dubious that investors were pouring tril…

GPUs have massive applications such as Alphafold, CRISPR, Medical Imaging, Meteorology. The massive planetary investment is not to make more AI chats that summarize text. That's just short sighted.

That’s copium, as the kids say nowadays. The massive planetary investment is a 100% for AI chats. All those other things are taking the crumbs where they can.
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