Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?
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Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?
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Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?
#2To say whether it's a bubble, we need to know the value of the technology.
The value of modern AI seems very high. That nobody knows how high, that they still haven't figured out applications, and that the technology and its tools are still far from refined, is normal for any new technology.
If you add the value of the potential political power gained by controlling AI, then the value to the owners and investors is astronomical. Many of the investors have demonstrated a strong motivation to sacrifice money for political power, for example by supporting nationalism that undermines a global economy that they benefit enormously from. Somewhere, I read someone explaining their investment by saying 'it's the greatest transfer of power in (modern) history'. Also see: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45983700
Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?
#3[dead]
Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?
#4writing a “bubble” post is new monad tutorial - gotta write one to get some street cred
Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?
#5This sort of reactionary post is a tiring as the motivating situation. Here's a big difference: aside from all the circular investments the companies at the root of AI have huge earnings and did so before the boom as well.It's convenient to say "Look at all these declines in the past month! The end is nigh!" - maybe expand your chart to 12 months or even 5 years. You can argue against Nvidia but if you do they've made you look foolish 3 pivots in a row. Are companies very expensive right now? Absolutely. Are there a lot of frothy valuations and looming failures? Probably - I think so. Is this just like the Internet bubble? Beyond the generic basics, no.
Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?
#6To say whether it's a bubble, we need to know the value of the technology. The value of modern AI seems very high. That nobody knows how high, that they still haven't figured out applications, and that the technology and its tools are still far from refined, is normal for any new technology. If you add the value of the potential political power gained by controlling AI, then the value to the owners and investors is a…
The implied promise was that these things were going to “revolutionize the workplace” i.e. massively automate middle class office jobs
A couple of years down the road, their useful applications still are summarizing text, transferring style to text, generating code under strict supervision, and generating images that need retouching.
That’s a lot to get out of a tool, but it’s dubious that investors were pouring trillions of dollars into these things thinking of automating away junior software engineers and low end design work.
Edit: I forgot their other niche, that of generating homework and school test answers
Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?
#7This sort of reactionary post is a tiring as the motivating situation. Here's a big difference: aside from all the circular investments the companies at the root of AI have huge earnings and did so before the boom as well.It's convenient to say "Look at all these declines in the past month! The end is nigh!" - maybe expand your chart to 12 months or even 5 years. You can argue against Nvidia but if you do they've mad…
Most of them have big revenues; not earnings.
Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?
#8writing a “bubble” post is new monad tutorial - gotta write one to get some street cred
This post argues the burst is not only inevitable it's right around the corner - never mind their principal argument being "we're terrible at predicting technology revolutions in the near term".
This seems like a variation on the President's (and my CTO's) process of 1. go on record both supporting and denouncing all positions, but commit to none, 2. wait... 3. spin your previous wisdoms based on the actual outcome. A super-inconsistent & confusing track record is actually a major asset when executing this strategy!
Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?
#9There’s a bubble bubble and it will pop in 26.
Re: Boom, bubble, bust, boom. Why should AI be different?
#10This sort of reactionary post is a tiring as the motivating situation. Here's a big difference: aside from all the circular investments the companies at the root of AI have huge earnings and did so before the boom as well.It's convenient to say "Look at all these declines in the past month! The end is nigh!" - maybe expand your chart to 12 months or even 5 years. You can argue against Nvidia but if you do they've mad…
Most of them have big revenues; not earnings.
that's not true; check the (edit: historical) PE ratios for the big names referenced in this post.