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Google Passes Microsoft’s Market Value as PC Loses to Web

businessweek.com

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Re: Google Passes Microsoft’s Market Value as PC Loses to Web

#11

Post by r3m6 »

recoiledsnake wrote: post #8

PC loses to Web ads is more likely. I think Google's got better at getting people to click on ads. For example, one of the following is a search result and the other is an ad. How many people can differentiate between them on various monitors? http://i.imgur.com/Wmdd0.png I remember the time when Google differentiated itself by clearly marking ads, now it's no longer true for high value keywords.

Yep. Google is still a one trick pony when it comes to revenue:

Advertising revenue in 2011 was 97 percent of Google's revenue!

Re: Google Passes Microsoft’s Market Value as PC Loses to Web

#12

Post by jamesaguilar »

recoiledsnake wrote: post #8

PC loses to Web ads is more likely. I think Google's got better at getting people to click on ads. For example, one of the following is a search result and the other is an ad. How many people can differentiate between them on various monitors? http://i.imgur.com/Wmdd0.png I remember the time when Google differentiated itself by clearly marking ads, now it's no longer true for high value keywords.

It's quite clear to me which is which just from the color differences. You also cut the "ads related mesothelioma (?)" at the top of the section, which should make it even more clear. And there's the fact that people who understand the difference have already learned where Google ads are on the page.

Re: Google Passes Microsoft’s Market Value as PC Loses to Web

#13

Post by r3m6 »

jamesaguilar wrote: post #12
recoiledsnake wrote: post #8

PC loses to Web ads is more likely. I think Google's got better at getting people to click on ads. For example, one of the following is a search result and the other is an ad. How many people can differentiate between them on various monitors? http://i.imgur.com/Wmdd0.png I remember the time when Google differentiated itself by clearly marking ads, now it's no longer true for high value keywords.

It's quite clear to me which is which just from the color differences. You also cut the "ads related mesothelioma (?)" at the top of the section, which should make it even more clear. And there's the fact that people who understand the difference have already learned where Google ads are on the page.

Every HN reader knows that. But "normal" web users do not know it (anymore?). Every so often I see some anecdotal evidence of that when I watch people doing searches.

Re: Google Passes Microsoft’s Market Value as PC Loses to Web

#14

Post by JumpCrisscross »

Weak signal given the size of the companies and their volatilities.

Let's observe the quoted, albeit stale, Google market capitalisation of $249.2 billion with a current vega-weighted mean implied volatility (market's opinion of what Google's volatility will be) of 31.12% and the quoted Microsoft market cap of $248.7 billion with an IV index of 22.51%. The question is, assuming these two Gaussian random variables vary independently [1], what is the probability that GOOG is still bigger than MSFT in one year? The answer is a hair above 50%. Plugging in $249.65 billion for Google and $248.02 billion for Microsoft (closer to present values) this probability rises closer to 51%.

Conclusion: insufficient evidence that this is more than random market jittering just yet.

[1] If this were more than a quick, stylised analysis I'd construct a covariance matrix or copula to describe the dependency structure. Given the razor thin odds, however, it is unlikely that correlation will help the OP's case too much.

Re: Google Passes Microsoft’s Market Value as PC Loses to Web

#15

Post by jamesaguilar »

r3m6 wrote: post #13
jamesaguilar wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's quite clear to me which is which just from the color differences. You also cut the "ads related mesothelioma (?)" at the top of the section, which should make it even more clear. And there's the fact that people who understand the difference have already learned where Google ads are on the page.

Every HN reader knows that. But "normal" web users do not know it (anymore?). Every so often I see some anecdotal evidence of that when I watch people doing searches.

There are limits to the amount of due diligence companies should have to do to ensure that people know they are clicking on ads. Anyone who is interested in avoiding clicking on ads will easily identify Google's, or not see them at all via a software solution. For the rest, there's not much short of an acknowledgement overlay that will get the message across reliably (for text ads -- image ads are easier, but google doesn't have them).

Re: Google Passes Microsoft’s Market Value as PC Loses to Web

#16

Post by paul »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

Weak signal given the size of the companies and their volatilities. Let's observe the quoted, albeit stale, Google market capitalisation of $249.2 billion with a current vega-weighted mean implied volatility (market's opinion of what Google's volatility will be) of 31.12% and the quoted Microsoft market cap of $248.7 billion with an IV index of 22.51%. The question is, assuming these two Gaussian random variables var…

It's still a rather remarkable milestone. In a relatively short amount of time, the #1 "unstoppable" company in tech was passed by both it's smaller competitor (Apple) and an entirely new company (Google).

Re: Google Passes Microsoft’s Market Value as PC Loses to Web

#18

Post by veermishra0803 »

paul wrote: post #16
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #14

Weak signal given the size of the companies and their volatilities. Let's observe the quoted, albeit stale, Google market capitalisation of $249.2 billion with a current vega-weighted mean implied volatility (market's opinion of what Google's volatility will be) of 31.12% and the quoted Microsoft market cap of $248.7 billion with an IV index of 22.51%. The question is, assuming these two Gaussian random variables var…

It's still a rather remarkable milestone. In a relatively short amount of time, the #1 "unstoppable" company in tech was passed by both it's smaller competitor (Apple) and an entirely new company (Google).

yes indeed, i agree that many times, what people referred as Small Bubbles, create a Huge dynamic impact on the world. The same is the case with Google. And for Apple, only Hats Off :)

Re: Google Passes Microsoft’s Market Value as PC Loses to Web

#19

Post by malandrew »

martythemaniak wrote: post #5

I think Google has a kind of purpose and drive which will take it very very far. They want to "organize the world's information", but that's less than half the story - an even bigger challenge is making all this information not only understandable and usable to humans but making it all work seamlessly together - a monumental task they are barely getting started at. Unrelated (but necessary) they also seem to be doing…

Don't forget the work on self-driving cars. Once that becomes more commonplace technology, I think you'll see the stock increase dramatically. Every industry with the logistics of moving stuff from point A to point B not on rail could eventually be affected by the work they are doing. Once you can automate that you've effectively reduced tons of problems to automated packet-switching.

Re: Google Passes Microsoft’s Market Value as PC Loses to Web

#20

Post by betterth »

recoiledsnake wrote: post #8

PC loses to Web ads is more likely. I think Google's got better at getting people to click on ads. For example, one of the following is a search result and the other is an ad. How many people can differentiate between them on various monitors? http://i.imgur.com/Wmdd0.png I remember the time when Google differentiated itself by clearly marking ads, now it's no longer true for high value keywords.

Saying that the PC loses to the web is like saying that cars lose to the new highway.

Sure, maybe everyone is replacing their car with a motorcycle, but then the car is losing to the motorcycle, not the highway.

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