My unpopular opinion is if we had just done a lot of the stuff Bret has been talking about for 10 years -- investing in better developer tooling -- we could have realized productivity gains better than what AI provides without having to spin up massive data centers. Unfortunately "dev tools" don't get funding today unless they're "AI dev tools".
Agreed, but: I know a couple of players in the "Enterprise Low-Code" space, who have invested heavily in deeply integrated development environments (with a capital I) and the right abstractions. They are all struggling with AI adoption as their systems "don't speak text". LLMs are great at grokking text based programming but not much else.
The thing about LLMs being only good with text is it's a self-fulfilling prophecy. We started writing text in a buffer because it was all we could do. Then we built tools to make that easier so all the tooling was text based. Then we produced a mountain of text-based code. Then we trained the AI on the text because that's what we had enough of to make it work, so of course that's what it's good at. Generative AI also seems to be good at art, because we have enough of that lying around to train on as well.
This is a repeat of what Seymour Papert realized when computers were introduced to classrooms around the 80s: instead of using the full interactive and multimodal capabilities of computers to teach in dynamic ways, teachers were using them just as "digital chalkboards" to teach the same topics in the same ways they had before. Why? Because that's what all the lessons were optimized for, because chalkboards were the tool that was there, because a desk, a ruler, paper, and pencil were all students had. So the lessons focused around what students could express on paper and what teachers could express on a chalk board (mostly times tables and 2d geometry).
And that's what I mean by "investment", because it's going to take a lot more than a VC writing a check to explore that design space. You've really gotta uproot the entire tree and plant a new one if you want to see what would have grown if we weren't just limited to text buffers from the start. The best we can get is "enterprise low code" because every effort has to come with an expected ROI in 18 months, so the best story anyone can sell to convince people to open their wallets is "these corpos will probably buy our thing".