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Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

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111–120 of 194 posts

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#111

Oracle has no IP in this deal. All they are doing is unpacking Nvidia servers, plugging it in, and keeping them cool. They get 15% markup for this.

The market is pricing in significant counterparty risk. It's possible Oracle does the buying, unpacking, and cooling of Nvidia servers and doesn't get paid.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#113
post #9

How is this even rational that companies "invest" billions of dollars that they dont even have? capitalism ad2025 is a joke

Wait until you discover that the bank doesn't have those dollars in your account.

It mostly does. Treasuries are a kind of dollar.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it. This is _actually_ what a respectable society does.

booing is also covered by free speech.

I might be misunderstanding what booing means then. My understanding is covering another person's voice with shouts in order to sabotage his speech. It might indeed be part of what some society might define free speech, but I'd consider it more of a coward form of violence.

If with "booing" you mean "disrespect whatever good idea a person has because it also has very bad ideas", then I wonder who we will end up respecting. Even I have ideas I end up discovering bad. Should I boo myself and ignore everything else I say?

If I am missing another definition of booing then I am sorry.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#115
post #74
post #9

How is this even rational that companies "invest" billions of dollars that they dont even have? capitalism ad2025 is a joke

If you can borrow money at X% and make (X+1)% on that money, you do that and invest it. As an individual you can do that by buying stocks on margin.

You can also do it by buying risky stocks and pretending you're buying alpha!

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#116

This slide from their investor preso is bonkers. $10B revenue today, but we promise we'll get to $166B in revenue in 5 years, by the simple expedient of growing 75% every year for five years! https://d9j0pm70mrv84f.archive.is/Qdf2n/baa236e2a4d94d45fe93...

Itanium sales projections vibes

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#117
post #45

The market (over)reacted to the OpenAi announcement sending Oracle’s share price up and now may be overreacting to Altman’s interview with an investor pushing their stock price down. And we are measuring (what seems like) a non-binding investment against market cap which swings everyday.

The market is priced for perfection. Delivery is underwhelming. I think the audacity and hijinks of Altman, Musk, the Trump whack pack, Theil, etc in this zero regulatory environment is starting to wear thin on Wall St.

The honest players like NVidia, Micron, Microsoft, Meta and Google who are shipping product or making money with this tech. IMO there’s a non-zero probability that OpenAI and the “Elon cinematic universe” are Enron style disasters.

The SEC is essentially gone. Their contracts with FINRA mostly cancelled. You can’t invest like it’s 2024.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean that doesn’t have a $0 cost.

It's real upfront cost. They got to build the DCs and put in the hardware. OpenAI's side of those deals are just announcements, which may become real. Or not.

they also have to find and sign large-scale and long-term power supply deals

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#119
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you’re saying there’s an upside?

Maybe the entire purpose of OpenAI was to suck all the inflation the US government created on the last decade and burn it out in a huge bonfire at the end of its life. Sam Altman has been playing 6-D chess this entire time, and we thought he was just a fraudster.

In a universe where all AI investment goes to zero, wouldn’t you have the opposite effect? You can torch wealth but not the money supply, which ultimately _increases_ inflation, not decreases it.

There is only a short term inflation decrease while we produce what people mistakingly think is wealth. That can evaporate, but the money supply won’t.

Re: Oracle is underwater on its $300B OpenAI deal

#120

It’s looking like Google may outdo OpenAI. ChatGPT has brand recognition and adoption, but not the best product anymore.

What is the cost of delivering regular search results vs. answering an AI chat question? How do you sell ads through each of these channels? If you consider those angles you'll see that Google does not want AI chat to replace Google search any time soon. Google is being dragged into this kicking and screaming. They are damned if they do, and damned if they don't.

It’s interesting, it’s almost like if Kodak did end up making best in class digital cameras
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