Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

bbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

231–240 of 752 posts

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#231

Post by bonsai_spool »

jimbokun wrote: post #196
redhed wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I assume the idea is more money could've been invested into bringing the bottom rungs of American society up and created a more skilled and educated workforce in the process.

So "social capital" == "education"? The US has pushed a shit ton of money into education. I mean an unreasonable amount of it went to administrators. But the goal and the intent was certainly there.

> I mean an unreasonable amount of it went to administrators. But the goal and the intent was certainly there.

This is wrong.

The increase in administrator pay began well after the crises cited in OP.

You could cite spending on the sciences (and thus Silicon Valley), but the spending by the US did not accrue to administrators; and further, federal money primarily goes to grants and loans, but GP is citing a time over which there were relatively low increases in tuition.

Edit: Not at home, but even a cursory serious search will turn up reports like this one that indicate the lack of clarity in the popular uprising against money "[going] to administrators"

https://www.investigativeeconomics.org/p/who-to-believe-on-u...

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#232

Post by gizajob »

nabla9 wrote: post #29
tow21 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon might get through easily as companies . I don't think all G/M/M/A staff will get through easily.

I cry for Elon, that precious jewel of a human being. Tesla (P/E: 273, PEG: 16.3) the car maker without robots, robotaxis is less than 15% of the Tesla valuation at best. When the AI hype dies, selloff starts and negative sentiment hits, we have below $200B market cap company. It will hurt Elon mentally. He will need a hug.

The fanboys obsessively buy any dip. It should have been back at a $200billion market cap countless times but it never gets there.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#233

Post by nradov »

jitix wrote: post #218
palmotea wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>> It's a shame that US didn't invest all that prosperity into social capital that could have helped create high value jobs. >> What does this sentence mean? > Cheaper education, free/subsidized healthcare, free/subsidized childcare, cultural norms around family support, etc. Except for free/subsidized healthcare, didn't the US already have those things during the post-war boom? Cheaper education? Public K-12 school…

> Except for free/subsidized healthcare, didn't the US already have those things during the post-war boom? Yes, but education system is being dismantled piece by piece at all levels. I work in edutech and our goal is to cut costs faster than revenue. Enrolments are down, students are over burdened with student loans, and new grads can't compete in the market. Also, do you think kids going to K-12 in the US can compet…

Education is a tough one. Like healthcare, it's highly subject to Baumol's Cost Disease. Technology holds some potential but fundamentally we still need a certain ratio of teachers to students, and those teachers get more expensive every year.

https://www.unesco.org/en/articles/baumols-cost-disease-long...

Education should be well funded. But at the same time, taxpayers are skeptical because increasing funding doesn't necessarily improve student outcomes. Students from stable homes with aspirational parents in safe neighborhoods will tend to do well even with meager education funding, and conversely students living in shitholes will tend to do badly regardless of how good the education system is. If we want to improve their lot then we need to fix broader social issues that go beyond just education. Anyone who has gotten involved with a large school district has seen the enormous waste that goes to paying multiple levels of administrators, and education "consultants" chasing the latest ineffective fad. Much of it is just a grift.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#234

Post by palmotea »

jitix wrote: post #218
palmotea wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>> It's a shame that US didn't invest all that prosperity into social capital that could have helped create high value jobs. >> What does this sentence mean? > Cheaper education, free/subsidized healthcare, free/subsidized childcare, cultural norms around family support, etc. Except for free/subsidized healthcare, didn't the US already have those things during the post-war boom? Cheaper education? Public K-12 school…

> Except for free/subsidized healthcare, didn't the US already have those things during the post-war boom? Yes, but education system is being dismantled piece by piece at all levels. I work in edutech and our goal is to cut costs faster than revenue. Enrolments are down, students are over burdened with student loans, and new grads can't compete in the market. Also, do you think kids going to K-12 in the US can compet…

>> Except for free/subsidized healthcare, didn't the US already have those things during the post-war boom?

> Yes, but education system is being dismantled piece by piece at all levels.

So? That's not really relevant to the historical period you were referring to when you said: "It's a shame that US didn't invest all that prosperity into social capital that could have helped create high value jobs."

At the time, Americans already had many of the things you're saying they should've invested in to get. How were they supposed to predict things would change and agitate for something different without the hindsight you enjoy?

> This was a special period of post war prosperity that I mentioned. It was unnatural and the world has reset back to the norm where a nuclear family needs societal/governmental support to raise kids, or need to have two 6 figure jobs.

Exactly why do you think it is it unnatural?

I think you should be more explicit about how you think things should be for families. Because going on an on about how the times when things were easier was "unnatural" may create the wrong impression.

Also keep in mind where talking about human society here, the concept of "natural" has very little to do with any of it. What were really talking about is the consequence of the internal logic of this or that set of artificial cultural practices.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#235

Post by jitix »

palmotea wrote: post #212
jitix wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for pointing out this skewed view of economic history common in North America. The short period of boom in 50s/60s US and Canada was driven by WW2 devastation everywhere else. We can see the economic crisis' in the US first in the 70s/80s with Europe and Japan rebounding, then again in 90s/00s with China and East Asia growing, and now again with the rest of the world growing (esp Latin America, India, Indonesi…

> Thanks for pointing out this skewed view of economic history common in North America.... > In short, its easier to have high standards of living in your secure isolated island when the rest of the world (including historical industrial powers) are completely decimated by war. So, what's your point? That the plebs shouldn't expect that much comfort?

A common maxim across all cultures is to "manage expectations" for happiness.

And while comparing societal standards expand the time horizon to 100 years, not nitpick one specific unnatural era of history.

An automotive engineer in Detroit in 1960 was a globally competitive worker because most of his counterparts in other countries were either dead, disabled or their companies bankrupt.

The equivalent in today's world would be aerospace engineers, AI researchers, quantum engineers, robotics engineers, etc who arguably have the same standard of living as the automotive engineer in 1960s Detroit.

Economic and technological standards evolve - societies should invest in human capital to evolve with them or risk stagnation.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#236

Post by gizajob »

tetris11 wrote: post #81
nicce wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

More like that when it happens, how big the pop is.

It'll be fine. When the banks burst in 2008, they were gifted 7 trillion to make up the shortfall and life went on for the rich. This time they'll be gifted 70 trillion to make up for the shortfall, and life shall continue on for the rich. It's win-win for them, there's no risk at all

The money system breaking is one thing, companies that build chatbots going to the wall is another.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#237

Post by apsurd »

throwacct wrote: post #194
jimbokun wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the AI bubble pops it's just another bubble like the many ones that have occurred throughout history and the market eventually recovers. In the AGI Succeeds scenario, the situation is unprecedented and it's not clear how it ever gets better.

Tbh, the answer is simple: if we truly get AGI, the government would nationalize it because it's a matter of national security and prosperity for that matter. Everything will change forever. Agriculture, Transportation, Health... Breakthrough after breakthrough after breakthrough. The country would hold the actual key to solve almost any problem.

when you write it out like that, it sounds unfathomably… silly.

I'm not a tinfoil hat skeptic, and i'd like to think i can accept the rationale behind the possibility. But I don't think we're remotely close as people seem to think.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#238

Post by jitix »

judahmeek wrote: post #225
jitix wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cheaper education, free/subsidized healthcare, free/subsidized childcare, cultural norms around family support, etc. Things that let workers focus on innovation. IT workers in cheaper countries have it much easier while we have to juggle rising cost of living and cyclical layoffs here. And ever since companies started hiring workers directly and paying 30-50% (compared to 10-15% during the GCC era) the quality is alm…

Right, because Europe is so innovative. The mother of invention is idiomatically necessity, not comfort. Ultimately, increased levels of competition should lead to higher levels of innovation. Btw, what is "the GCC era" a reference to?

Europe is quite innovative on per-capita basis. Not like US but the workers there have much happier lives and their societies don't have extreme inequality and resulting violence like the US.

China is arguably more innovative than all and has terrible work life balance, but their society is stable and you won't go from millionaire to homeless just because you had to get cancer treatment.

GCC = global consulting companies, the bane of innovation. Outsourcing of all kinds (even domestic C2C) should be banned.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#239

Post by gizajob »

estimator7292 wrote: post #110
jmount wrote: post #68

Tons of companies survived the dot com bubble pop. Corrections are when the market does some sorting.

Wow, this is such a unique and beautiful insight literally nobody has ever heard before. Good job!

10x more useful than your retort.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#240

Post by throwacct »

jimbokun wrote: post #206
throwacct wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tbh, the answer is simple: if we truly get AGI, the government would nationalize it because it's a matter of national security and prosperity for that matter. Everything will change forever. Agriculture, Transportation, Health... Breakthrough after breakthrough after breakthrough. The country would hold the actual key to solve almost any problem.

Looking at the current state of politics around the world...you really think that would be the outcome?

AGI? Absolutely. If your country gets there, would anyone relinquish that type of power and knowledge?
Post reply on HN