...says the man guilty of said irrationality.
Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'
221–230 of 752 posts
Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'
#222Earlier quoted context omitted.
OpenAI has no technical moat (others can do what they do), generate content, all have the same data. OpenAI does not expect to be cash-flow positive until 2029. When no new capital comes in, it can't continue. OpenAI can's survive any kind of price competition.
They consistently have the best or second best models. They have infrastructure that serves 800 million monthly active users. Investors are lining up to give them money. When they IPO, they'll easily be worth over $1 trillion. There's price competition right now. They're still surviving. If there is price competition, they're the most likely to survive.
Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'
#223Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't even know what the selling point of AI is for regular people. In the 60s it was possible for a man to work an ordinary job, buy a house, settle down with a wife and support two or three children. That's completely out of the realm of reality for many young people now and the plummeting birth rates show it. The middle class have financially benefited very little from the past 20+ years of productivity gains. S…
According to the census bureau median family income in 1960 was $5,600, which is $58,946.59 in Jan 2024 dollars. It's $83,730 in 2024. For individual males, in 1960 it was $4,100 ($43,157.33 Jan 2024 dollars) and $71,090 in 2024. Sources: https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1962/demo/p60-03... https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2025/demo/p60-28... https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl The thing is,…
now tell us how they calculate those inflation adjusted dollars-- what basket of goods? prices in which markets?
Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'
#224Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't even know what the selling point of AI is for regular people. In the 60s it was possible for a man to work an ordinary job, buy a house, settle down with a wife and support two or three children. That's completely out of the realm of reality for many young people now and the plummeting birth rates show it. The middle class have financially benefited very little from the past 20+ years of productivity gains. S…
To me this all just looks like a big frothy chemical reaction playing out far beyond any one person's control. With that view, many things oscillate over time, including game theory patterns (average interaction intentions of win-win, win-lose, lose-lose), and integration / mitosis (unions, international treaties, civil wars),etc. So my optimistic view is that inevitably we will get more tech whether we want it or no…
The majority of people are already doing ”bullshit jobs” and many of them know it too. Using AI to automate the bullshit and capture the value leaves them with nothing.
The AI evangelists generally overlook that one of the primary things that capitalism does is fill people’s lives with busywork, in part as an exercise in power and in another part because if given their time back, those people would genuinely have absolutely no idea what to do with it.
Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'
#225Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It's a shame that US didn't invest all that prosperity into social capital that could have helped create high value jobs. What does this sentence mean?
Cheaper education, free/subsidized healthcare, free/subsidized childcare, cultural norms around family support, etc. Things that let workers focus on innovation. IT workers in cheaper countries have it much easier while we have to juggle rising cost of living and cyclical layoffs here. And ever since companies started hiring workers directly and paying 30-50% (compared to 10-15% during the GCC era) the quality is alm…
Right, because Europe is so innovative.
The mother of invention is idiomatically necessity, not comfort.
Ultimately, increased levels of competition should lead to higher levels of innovation.
Btw, what is "the GCC era" a reference to?
Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'
#226Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the AI bubble pops it's just another bubble like the many ones that have occurred throughout history and the market eventually recovers. In the AGI Succeeds scenario, the situation is unprecedented and it's not clear how it ever gets better.
Tbh, the answer is simple: if we truly get AGI, the government would nationalize it because it's a matter of national security and prosperity for that matter. Everything will change forever. Agriculture, Transportation, Health... Breakthrough after breakthrough after breakthrough. The country would hold the actual key to solve almost any problem.
The government only nationalises losses, not wins.
Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'
#227Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah if you bar over 50% of your workforce from working at market clearing wages then naturally the other 50% are going to get paid at their expense. When you underpay minorities and often outright ban women from working formal employment, it's not hard to see how wages for the others remain high.
Well congratulations! We have succeeded in having stagnating wages and stagnating standard of living for everyone now!
Do you want to take a 20% pay cut so I can take the marginal benefit? Who wants to volunteer to be barred from working so I can negotiate better salary?
Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'
#228Earlier quoted context omitted.
If the AI bubble pops it's just another bubble like the many ones that have occurred throughout history and the market eventually recovers. In the AGI Succeeds scenario, the situation is unprecedented and it's not clear how it ever gets better.
Tbh, the answer is simple: if we truly get AGI, the government would nationalize it because it's a matter of national security and prosperity for that matter. Everything will change forever. Agriculture, Transportation, Health... Breakthrough after breakthrough after breakthrough. The country would hold the actual key to solve almost any problem.
The key to typing out the solution to any problem, not actually solving it.
Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'
#229Earlier quoted context omitted.
To me this all just looks like a big frothy chemical reaction playing out far beyond any one person's control. With that view, many things oscillate over time, including game theory patterns (average interaction intentions of win-win, win-lose, lose-lose), and integration / mitosis (unions, international treaties, civil wars),etc. So my optimistic view is that inevitably we will get more tech whether we want it or no…
When you say that this pattern plays out, can you be specific?
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Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'
#230Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Investors are lining up to give them money. When they IPO, they'll easily be worth over $1 trillion. Your premise is that there is no bubble. We are talking about what happens when bubble bursts. Without investor money drying out there is no bubble.
I think we are in 1995 of the dotcom bubble for AI.
More like 1998