201–210 of 752 posts
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Currently? Wishing there was an S&P 500 that banned tech stocks.
The SPXT [0]/XMAG [1] ETFs are exactly what you're looking for. [0] https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/strategic/spxt (S&P minus tech stocks) [1] https://www.defianceetfs.com/xmag/ (S&P minus "Magnificent 7")
Interestingly I think if the AI succeed at the level that a lot of these CEOs hope we're not much better off either. And the sentiment that goes around is more: reduce the amount of people needed to do the same amount of work: https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/09/mckinsey_ai_monetizat... > McKinsey says, while quoting an HR executive at a Fortune 100 company griping: "All of these copilots are supposed to make work…
Realistically I think there are two outcomes: AGI succeeds and there are mass layoffs, money is concentrated further in the hands of those who own compute. OR AI bubble pops and there are mass layoffs, with bailouts going to the largest players to prevent a larger collapse, which drives inflation and further marginalizes asset-less people. I honestly don't see a third option unless there is government intervention, w…
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So if WhatsApp had an outage, but you needed to communicate to someone, you wouldn't be able to? Don't you have contacts saved locally, and other message apps available?
In most of Asia, Latin America, Africa, and about half of Europe? You’d be pretty stuck. I guess SMS might work, but it wouldn’t for most businesses (they use the WhatsApp business functionality, there is no SMS thing backing it). Most people don’t even use text anymore. China has it’s own Apps, but everyone else uses WhatsApp exclusively at this point.
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Thanks for pointing out this skewed view of economic history common in North America. The short period of boom in 50s/60s US and Canada was driven by WW2 devastation everywhere else. We can see the economic crisis' in the US first in the 70s/80s with Europe and Japan rebounding, then again in 90s/00s with China and East Asia growing, and now again with the rest of the world growing (esp Latin America, India, Indonesi…
> It's a shame that US didn't invest all that prosperity into social capital that could have helped create high value jobs. What does this sentence mean?
Things that let workers focus on innovation. IT workers in cheaper countries have it much easier while we have to juggle rising cost of living and cyclical layoffs here. And ever since companies started hiring workers directly and paying 30-50% (compared to 10-15% during the GCC era) the quality is almost at par with US.
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It's important to keep in mind the difference between the stock market and the economy. Economically, AI is a bubble, and lots of startups whose current business model is "UI in front of the OpenAI API" are likely doomed. That's just economic reality - you can't run on investor money forever. Eventually you need actual revenue, and many of these companies aren't generating very much of it. That being said, most of th…
I think the targeted ad revenue all of the llm providers will get using everyones regular chat data + credit card dataset for training is going to be insanely good. Plus the information they can provide to the State on the sentiment of users is also going to be greatly valued
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If the AI bubble pops it's just another bubble like the many ones that have occurred throughout history and the market eventually recovers. In the AGI Succeeds scenario, the situation is unprecedented and it's not clear how it ever gets better.
Tbh, the answer is simple: if we truly get AGI, the government would nationalize it because it's a matter of national security and prosperity for that matter. Everything will change forever. Agriculture, Transportation, Health... Breakthrough after breakthrough after breakthrough. The country would hold the actual key to solve almost any problem.
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Microsoft is in a pickle. They put AI lipstick on top of decades of unfixed tech debt and their relationship with their userbase isn't great. Their engineering culture is clearly not healthy. For their size and financial resources, their position in the market right now is very delicate.
I think that's the impression you get if you focus on Microsoft as a OS vendor. It's not that anymore, that's why their OS sucks for many years now. Their main business is b2b, cloud services, and azure. I think they are pretty safe from OpenAI. Plus they have invested big in OpenAI as well.
Azure is a product all right, but there’s nothing particularly better there than anywhere else.
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> If you're big enough that we'd be screwed without you then take whatever risks you like with impunity". I know financially it will be bad because number not go up and number need go up. But do we actually depend on generative/agentic AI at all in meaningful ways? I’m pretty sure all LLMs could be Thanos snapped away and there would be near zero material impact. If the studies are at all reliable all the programmers…
I expect the downvotes to come from this as they always seem to do these days, but I know from my personal experience that there is value in these agents. Not so much for the work I do for my company, but having these agents has been a fairly huge boon in some specific ways personally: - search replacement (beats google almost all of the time) - having code-capable agents means my pet projects are getting along a lot…
Personally, I had the exact opposite experience: Wrong, deceitful responses, hallucinations, arbitrary pointless changes to code... It's like that one junior I requested to be removed from the team after they peed in the codebase one too many times.
On the slop i have 2 sentiments: Lots of slop = higher demand for my skills to clean it up. But also lots of slop = worse software on probably most things, impacting not just me, but also friends, family and the rest of humanity. At least it's not only a downside :/
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> Just make sure you don't do it in an overheated place like New York If the stock market crashes, New York property probably sings. Stock market crash means ZIRP. And ZIRP means lots of money sloshing through New York.
> lots of money sloshing through New York. That's kinda the problem, I'd expect it to be a bit… volatile. I guess it's a valid target to gamble on if that matches your risk profile.
Technically yes, but only because something monotonically increasing in price is volatile.
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It's also possible it'll be more of a deflation than a pop. That's what I'm personally hoping for anyway, would rather the economy avoid a big recession.
Without AI bubble the economy is already mostly in a recession.