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Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

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Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#111

> He told the BBC that the company owns what he called a “full stack” of technologies, from chips to YouTube data to models and frontier science research. This integrated approach, he suggested, would help the company weather any market turbulence better than competitors. I guess but is it better for an investor to own 2 shares of Google or 1 share of OpenAI and 1 share of TSMC? Like I have no doubt that being vertic…

OpenAI is privately held. Regular retail investors can't buy shares.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#112

I'm curious what HN is doing with their portfolios right about now. I'd be dumping NVDA and reallocating to more bonds for the time being.

Why trade individual stocks anyway? Cost averaging ETFs is a proven way to building wealth. S&P goes down 20%, you average down, it recovers and you get another 2-3 years of growth. This goes on until civilization collapses.

If you buy ETFs, you basically hold some stocks you don't want.

For example, stock from war profiteering companies (lockheed, raytheon).

Note that investing in war profiteers is a proven way to build wealth. I just don't want to do that.

This argument not only applies to evil companies, but also dumb ones. For example, I have no interest in investing in IBM or Oracle even those both of those are also money makers.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#113

I'm curious what HN is doing with their portfolios right about now. I'd be dumping NVDA and reallocating to more bonds for the time being.

This sub is the most important question in the thread. Where do you put your money to hedge against an AI market crash?

With even the SP500 being super concentrated in AI-exposed companies, probably a combination of bonds and foreign equities. But hedging does mean being OK with watching any (perceived or real) bubble madness continue. I wanted to put all my wealth into Apple circa 2005, but chose not to because blah blah blah diversification. Obviously I wish I did, but I'm ok with the perfectly sensible decision I made - and I'd be retired many times over had I done it.

Personally speaking, as somebody that was 100% in equities until earlier this year (I'm in my early 40s and had most of my wealth in VOO), I shifted to a 60-40 portfolio - there are ETFs that maintain the balance for you. I did this knowing full well that this could attenuate my upside, but I figured it's worth it than being so concentrated in a single part of an industry (AI within tech) and so much upside was already acquired up until that point. Also, I figured the chances of the 2nd Trump term adding to volatility weren't going to help tamper volatility. On top of that, my income is tied to tech, so diversifying away further from it is sensible (especially the equity parts of my compensation).

But if you're in your 20s, your nest egg is likely small enough that I'd just continue plugging away in automatic contributions. Investing at all is far more important than anything else at that stage.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#114
Interestingly I think if the AI succeed at the level that a lot of these CEOs hope we're not much better off either.

And the sentiment that goes around is more: reduce the amount of people needed to do the same amount of work:

https://www.theregister.com/2025/10/09/mckinsey_ai_monetizat...

> McKinsey says, while quoting an HR executive at a Fortune 100 company griping: "All of these copilots are supposed to make work more efficient with fewer people, but my business leaders are also saying they can't reduce head count yet."

The problem becomes that eventually all these people who are laid off are not going to find new roles.

Who is going to be buying the products and services if no-one has money to throw around?

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#115

Silicon Valley! Unprofitable debt and marketing all the way up until you get bailed out by the taxpayers, apparently.

I'm not seeing that happening. Unlike banking and housing there's not much systemic or political risk in letting these companies crash. It's mostly going to hit a very small number of high net worth people who don't have a lot of clout and are oddly disconnected from the rest of the economy.

This is incorrect. A lot of these companies are raising debt to pay for these datacenter build outs. And that debt has already been sold to pension funds. The risk has already been spread. See Blue Owl Capital and how Meta is financing its Hyperion datacenter. They raised 30 billion in debt. Main street is already exposed as those bonds are in funds offered by the usual players BlackRock, Invesco, Pimco etc.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#116

I'm curious what HN is doing with their portfolios right about now. I'd be dumping NVDA and reallocating to more bonds for the time being.

Why trade individual stocks anyway? Cost averaging ETFs is a proven way to building wealth. S&P goes down 20%, you average down, it recovers and you get another 2-3 years of growth. This goes on until civilization collapses.

Buying index funds (either mutual funds or ETFs) has been an effective approach for retail investors. But the concern now is that some US stock index funds are so heavily weighted to the "Magnificent 7" stocks that much of the previous benefit of diversification has been lost. The Mag 7 are all highly correlated with each other so if one falls then usually the others do as well.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/magnifi...

There are other index funds which are equal weighted rather than market weighted. Those have underperformed lately but might be less volatile if the AI bubble pops.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#117

I'm curious what HN is doing with their portfolios right about now. I'd be dumping NVDA and reallocating to more bonds for the time being.

This sub is the most important question in the thread. Where do you put your money to hedge against an AI market crash?

AAPL is chronically undervalued, and at the same time derives no revenue from generative AI.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#118
post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This sub is the most important question in the thread. Where do you put your money to hedge against an AI market crash?

You can't hedge against a whole market. And you can't time bubble pop events anyway. You can dump NVDA today, sure, because it's overvalued at $180. And most of us agree. But that won't prevent it from going to $300 before it pops (which is totally reasonable too!), so dumping it today might hurt as much as it helps. Run-ups at the end of a speculative bubble are by definition irrational and produce in-hindsight-ridi…

into? bonds?

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#119

I'm curious what HN is doing with their portfolios right about now. I'd be dumping NVDA and reallocating to more bonds for the time being.

This sub is the most important question in the thread. Where do you put your money to hedge against an AI market crash?

Do you live in a home you own with no mortgage? Do you have a fully electrified home, only EVs, and enough solar to run those things? You can make real concrete capital investments instead of abstract financial ones to reduce your required living/"operating" expenses, insulating you somewhat from the state of financial markets.

Re: Google boss says AI investment boom has 'elements of irrationality'

#120

I'm curious what HN is doing with their portfolios right about now. I'd be dumping NVDA and reallocating to more bonds for the time being.

This sub is the most important question in the thread. Where do you put your money to hedge against an AI market crash?

Land/housing/property, as directly as possible and reasonable. Just make sure you don't do it in an overheated place like New York.
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