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Gemini 3 Pro Model Card [pdf]

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Re: Gemini 3 Pro Model Card [pdf]

#31

They scored a 31.1% on ARC AGI 2 which puts them in first place. Also notable which models they include for comparison: Gemini 2.5 Pro, Claude Sonnet 4.5, and GPT-5.1. That seems like a minor snub against Grok 4 / Grok 4.1.

My impression is that Grok is very rarely used in practice outside of a niche of die-hard users, partly because of very different tuning to other models, and partly the related public reputation around it. https://firstpagesage.com/reports/top-generative-ai-chatbots... suggests 0.6% of chat use cases, well below the other big names, and I suspect those stats for chat are higher than other scenarios like business usag…

I don’t know anyone who uses Grok, but in my peer group everyone uses 1-2 paid services like Gemini or Clause or ChatGPT. They’re probably not as “extremely online” as I am, so I can’t generalize this thought, but anecdotally my impression has been that Grok is just very “right wing influencer” coded.

Re: Gemini 3 Pro Model Card [pdf]

#32

If these numbers are true then OpenAI is probably done, Anthropic too. Still, it's hard to see an effective monetization method for this tech and it clearly is eating Google's main pie which is search.

The only one it doesn't win is SWE bench which it is significantly behind Claude Sonnet. You just can't take down Sonnet.

Re: Gemini 3 Pro Model Card [pdf]

#33
post #27
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? These models just leapfrog each other as time advances. One month Gemini is on top, then ChatGPT, then Anthropic. Not sure why everyone gets FOMO whenever a new version gets released.

I think google is uniquely well placed to make a profitable business out of AI: They make their own TPUs so don't have to pay ridiculous amounts of money to Nvidia, they have a great depth of talent in building models, they've got loads of data they can use for training and they've got a huge existing customer base who can buy their AI offerings. I don't think any other company has all these ingredients.

100% the reason I am long on Google. They can take their time to monetize these new costs.

Even other search competitors have not proven to be a danger to Google. There is nothing stopping that search money coming in.

Re: Gemini 3 Pro Model Card [pdf]

#34
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think google is uniquely well placed to make a profitable business out of AI: They make their own TPUs so don't have to pay ridiculous amounts of money to Nvidia, they have a great depth of talent in building models, they've got loads of data they can use for training and they've got a huge existing customer base who can buy their AI offerings. I don't think any other company has all these ingredients.

While I don’t disagree that Google is the company you can’t bet against when it comes to AI, saying other companies are done is a stretch. If they have a significant moat then they should be at the top all the time by then which is not the case though.

Agreed, too early to write off others entirely. It'll be interesting to see who comes out the other side of the bubble with a working business.

Re: Gemini 3 Pro Model Card [pdf]

#35

If these numbers are true then OpenAI is probably done, Anthropic too. Still, it's hard to see an effective monetization method for this tech and it clearly is eating Google's main pie which is search.

Or else it trained/overfit to the benchmarks. We won't really know until people have a chance to use it for real-world tasks.

Also, models are already pretty good but product/market fit (in terms of demonstrated economic value delivered) remains elusive outside of a couple domains. Does a model that's (say) 30% better reach an inflection point that changes that narrative, or is a more qualitative change required?

Re: Gemini 3 Pro Model Card [pdf]

#37
post #13

If these numbers are true then OpenAI is probably done, Anthropic too. Still, it's hard to see an effective monetization method for this tech and it clearly is eating Google's main pie which is search.

Why? These models just leapfrog each other as time advances. One month Gemini is on top, then ChatGPT, then Anthropic. Not sure why everyone gets FOMO whenever a new version gets released.

Considering GPT 5 was only recently released, it's very unlikely GPT will achieve these scores in just a couple of months. If they had something this good in the oven, they'd probably left the GPT 5 name to it.

Or maybe Google just benchmaxxed and this doesn't translate at all in real world performance.

Re: Gemini 3 Pro Model Card [pdf]

#38
Curiously, this website seems to be blocked in Spain for whatever reason, and the website's certificate is served by `allot.com/emailAddress=info@allot.com` which obviously fails...

Anyone happen to know why? Is this website by any change sharing information on safe medical abortions or women's rights, something which has gotten websites blocked here before?

Re: Gemini 3 Pro Model Card [pdf]

#40

They scored a 31.1% on ARC AGI 2 which puts them in first place. Also notable which models they include for comparison: Gemini 2.5 Pro, Claude Sonnet 4.5, and GPT-5.1. That seems like a minor snub against Grok 4 / Grok 4.1.

My impression is that Grok is very rarely used in practice outside of a niche of die-hard users, partly because of very different tuning to other models, and partly the related public reputation around it. https://firstpagesage.com/reports/top-generative-ai-chatbots... suggests 0.6% of chat use cases, well below the other big names, and I suspect those stats for chat are higher than other scenarios like business usag…

well, there are 3 kind of usages for grok: - using grok inside X/Twitter: most people interacts with Grok this way. - using grok on its website: this is really annoying, as you get delayed by cloudflare everytime you access the site. As grok does not provide serious advantage over other services, why bother - you can also use the app, but it is not as convenient as other services.

it is understandable that grok is not popular.

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