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Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

thestreet.com

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Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#121

Post by dehrmann »

dmix wrote: post #39
hactually wrote: post #9

I'd say he's wanting to lock in those gains. Diamond hands are different when you're up 100s of millions on a single stock.

Yeah everyone wants a conspiracy when the obvious signal is that he already made insane amounts of money off the stock spiking so high and he wants to diversify it on other stuff instead of continuing to gamble on a big one. Which is also what the article says he is doing.

And Nvidia has a target on its back right now. It's priced like it's the only game in town, but AMD, Google, Meta and Intel have varying degrees of competing chips for AI use.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#122

Post by sota_pop »

100% is a serious move. Taken alone, I might not think much, but given the SoftBank exit recently, Jensen’s trading activity, Gates selling so much MSFT, Buffett’s recent trading activity, Trump’s recent trading activity, and the interesting observation from Michael Burry, this does not bode well for NVDA in the short/mid term.

Burry’s critique was actually refreshingly novel compared to the “it’s a bubble lmao” type of comments I normally see.

Can anyone expand on the validity of his “hardware depreciation” thesis?

I’ve always understood typical corporate hardware cycle to be ~3 years. I don’t run it that hot, but my 3080 is still running strong with no signs of performance issues (except the fact that 10GB is not much vram these days). Plus doesn’t everyone (big corps) just buy the new generation every single year?

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#123

Post by gopher_space »

BurningFrog wrote: post #55
iammjm wrote: post #28

Peter Thiel the guy that believes that the literal biblical antichrist is walking amongst us? How much rational thought can one really expect from this guy? I am not questioning AI being a good investment or not, I am questioning this dude's sanity

I expect continued economic performance from a guy who went from nothing to... $25B was the latest number I heard. Empirically, I don't think Christians do worse investments than us atheists, so rationally speaking I don't think it's much of a factor.

How can you tell he’s a Christian? I only know him by his works.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#124

Post by jjav »

andy_ppp wrote: post #65
AstroBen wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there an opposite to the halo effect? Stupidity in one area doesn't mean they're stupid in another Judge him based on his investing skill here

Startup investing and stock market investment records are probably not particularly well correlated. Certainly timing the market is difficult for everyone.

> Certainly timing the market is difficult for everyone.

Timing the market is a lot easier for industry insiders and politicians, however.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#125

Post by amelius »

FrankWilhoit wrote: post #2

When someone like this does something like this, it is not an economic act. It is a signal of some kind, a move in an opaque chess game, whose players are nowhere near as smart as they think they are.

Or maybe he just found out he suffers from some incurable disorder and now needs the money to build research centers to find a cure, because AI won't help obviously.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#127

Post by ggm »

djmips wrote: post #118
ggm wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A parking spot with good return and solidity. I don't think he's staying there at scale for long. Neither want him on the board.

this whole article is about $100 m. - isn't that basically pocket change?

Yes. I think you put this into context well.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#128

Post by andy_ppp »

jjav wrote: post #124
andy_ppp wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Startup investing and stock market investment records are probably not particularly well correlated. Certainly timing the market is difficult for everyone.

> Certainly timing the market is difficult for everyone. Timing the market is a lot easier for industry insiders and politicians, however.

Or if you own a company specifically designed to siphon up and interpret private information…

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#130

Post by antasvara »

This could be anything, so making a sweeping generalization is premature IMO.

It could be insider knowledge that Intel/AMD/other has made a huge step forward and has reduced Nvidia's moat (unlikely considering his public support for Nvidia's hardware, but possible).

It could be that the AI bubble is popping.

It could be that he wants to "lock in" the gains that Nvidia has made; having that much capital in one company tied to a pretty volatile sector is risky.

Maybe he thinks that the beneficiaries of AI will be B2B companies like Microsoft with connections to most major businesses.

Maybe it's a changing view on how much compute will be needed to fuel AI developments moving forward.

And this is just the list I could thing of off the top of my head. There are plenty of other reasons this move could be happening. Absent an inside line on Thiel, anything else is speculation.

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