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6B Miles Driven

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Re: 6B Miles Driven

#91

Post by sixQuarks »

input_sh wrote: post #21
sixQuarks wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You realize that almost every politician has done a similar type of pose right? So if there’s a picture or a video of your favorite politician doing that pose you’re automatically going to assume they are Nazi? Just a minimal knowledge of Musk‘s ties to Israel, and friendships with Netanyahu, Jared Kushner, and others you should realize that there’s no way he’s a Nazi or antisemitic. If anything, he is highly racist…

Yes, if I see a video (not a still) of someone doing a nazi salute two times in a row, I'm gonna assume they're a nazi. Absolutey no disagreements with you there. Doubly so if they also happen to tune into an AfD and a Tommy Robinson rally.

Maybe we don’t have the same definition of what a nazi is, because Tommy Robinson is a huge Israeli schill, Elon musk is friends with Netanyahu, Jared kushner, and many other Zionists.

Re: 6B Miles Driven

#92

Post by spankalee »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #87
ajross wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So... that was exactly the point upthread. You're making a semantic argument over the proper definition for the word "real" when applied to autonomous vehicle systems. Nothing in this argument is actionable in any way. You can't conjure real dead kids, so you need to describe hypothetical ones. That's... yeah. Nonetheless , our cars drive us around anyway. Neither they, nor us, actually care about hypothetical steamr…

The argument is that Tesla needs to be doing hundreds of thousands of miles without intervention to be trusted for robotaxis. Most people using FSD don't come close to the mileage needed to get an idea of the safety level needed. If a Tesla robotaxi kills a kid, Tesla is done, and there won't be a coming back. So Tesla actually needs millions of miles without critical intervention before they can confidently let thes…

I don't think Tesla will be done when they kill a kid. FSD already has killed people: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Tesla_Autopilot_crashe...

Re: 6B Miles Driven

#94

Post by ajross »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #87
ajross wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So... that was exactly the point upthread. You're making a semantic argument over the proper definition for the word "real" when applied to autonomous vehicle systems. Nothing in this argument is actionable in any way. You can't conjure real dead kids, so you need to describe hypothetical ones. That's... yeah. Nonetheless , our cars drive us around anyway. Neither they, nor us, actually care about hypothetical steamr…

The argument is that Tesla needs to be doing hundreds of thousands of miles without intervention to be trusted for robotaxis. Most people using FSD don't come close to the mileage needed to get an idea of the safety level needed. If a Tesla robotaxi kills a kid, Tesla is done, and there won't be a coming back. So Tesla actually needs millions of miles without critical intervention before they can confidently let thes…

> Tesla actually needs millions of miles without critical intervention

So... agreed. I think that sounds like it's in the right ballpark.

Here's the thing though: your whole argument (sort of a para-freakout, really) hinges on this evidence not existing.

It's true that citing numbers from supervised cars isn't the same thing. It's not true to argue that it not being the same thing is (0) not at least a somewhat reasonable proxy for the evidence you want to see, (1) evidence that it doesn't or can't exist, (2) evidence for the opposite case (you seem to be claiming that the fact that it's supervised means that it must be), and in particular (3) evidence for suppression of contrary evidence, as some of your more conspiracy-leaning comments seem to imply.

Isn't the Occam's explanation here that, yeah, the car looks pretty damn safe as shown by billions of miles of travel? Why must you be going to the mattresses to argue against something that seems pretty common sense to me?

Re: 6B Miles Driven

#95

Post by josephcsible »

bigtex wrote: post #93

Don't forget he promised robotaxis in 2019: “Next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road,” said Musk on October 21, 2019. “The fleet wakes up with an over-the-air update. That’s all it takes.” https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-mil...

Yes, we all know that when Elon makes promises about the future, he's always late delivering on them. But this is about the capabilities of something that's already here, and those kind of claims are way more reliable.

Re: 6B Miles Driven

#96

Post by judahmeek »

ajross wrote: post #94
Workaccount2 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The argument is that Tesla needs to be doing hundreds of thousands of miles without intervention to be trusted for robotaxis. Most people using FSD don't come close to the mileage needed to get an idea of the safety level needed. If a Tesla robotaxi kills a kid, Tesla is done, and there won't be a coming back. So Tesla actually needs millions of miles without critical intervention before they can confidently let thes…

> Tesla actually needs millions of miles without critical intervention So... agreed. I think that sounds like it's in the right ballpark. Here's the thing though: your whole argument (sort of a para-freakout, really) hinges on this evidence not existing. It's true that citing numbers from supervised cars isn't the same thing. It's not true to argue that it not being the same thing is (0) not at least a somewhat reaso…

Occam's Razor is a principle for comparing explanations, not for making predictions.

> It's not true to argue that it not being the same thing is (0) not at least a somewhat reasonable proxy for the evidence you want to see, (1) evidence that it doesn't or can't exist, (2) evidence for the opposite case (you seem to be claiming that the fact that it's supervised means that it must be), and in particular (3) evidence for suppression of contrary evidence, as some of your more conspiracy-leaning comments seem to imply.

Actually, (0) is true. Numbers from supervised FSD are not a reasonable proxy for unsupervised FSD, especially if accidents may be occurring immediately after FSD disengages.

(1) is also true, because if the evidence did exist, then Tesla would have already have publicized it.

(2) is also true, because if Tesla thought they could employ unsupervised cars like Waymo, then they would have already have done that.

As for (3), if Tesla had a reputation for transparency & honesty, then they could have provided additional data on accidents to show that accidents are not occurring right after FSD disengages at significant rates.

Re: 6B Miles Driven

#97

Post by bigtex »

josephcsible wrote: post #95
bigtex wrote: post #93

Don't forget he promised robotaxis in 2019: “Next year for sure, we will have over a million robotaxis on the road,” said Musk on October 21, 2019. “The fleet wakes up with an over-the-air update. That’s all it takes.” https://www.thedrive.com/news/38129/elon-musk-promised-1-mil...

Yes, we all know that when Elon makes promises about the future, he's always late delivering on them. But this is about the capabilities of something that's already here, and those kind of claims are way more reliable.

What makes you trust the data provided by Tesla?

Re: 6B Miles Driven

#98

Post by steveBK123 »

doph wrote: post #73
303uru wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What kind of setting do you live in? I live in the outskirts of Denver (Cherry Creek) and commute downtown and I have to intervene all the time.

I'm in Los Angeles, which can be a challenging place to drive. Each time they give me a free trial of FSD for a month, I enable it and test it with excitement and optimism. Each time I only use it for a day or two before it does something dangerous enough to scare me.

It's interesting seeing people in the same geographic areas report completely different experiences.

I think the fanboys self select for above-average risk tolerance / want their toy to succeed.

I recall years ago when I still had a Tesla and frequented forums, often after every FSD/Autopilot release the boosters would declares "this is it, its finally great and I barely need to intervene". However almost as often, they would quietly concede that their girlfriend/wife (cuz it was always dudes pumping the car) refuses to ride with them when the use it due to the ride quality, lol.

Re: 6B Miles Driven

#99

Post by cma »

rconti wrote: post #71
cma wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it takes you off the road into the grass with no traction at 80mph it could reasonably be 5 seconds before you hit a tree.

Sure, it's very possible, and I'm sure has happened (an autopilot-instigated crash that happened >5sec after disengagement), but I do think 5 seconds is a reasonable threshold for this data, at the very least.

Another example scenario: FSD-caused spin out then hit by a car close to 5 seconds later. I've been close to this one before with a tire blow out but wasn't hit, but maybe you are right that these would be in the tail of the data.

Re: 6B Miles Driven

#100

Post by input_sh »

sixQuarks wrote: post #91
input_sh wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, if I see a video (not a still) of someone doing a nazi salute two times in a row, I'm gonna assume they're a nazi. Absolutey no disagreements with you there. Doubly so if they also happen to tune into an AfD and a Tommy Robinson rally.

Maybe we don’t have the same definition of what a nazi is, because Tommy Robinson is a huge Israeli schill, Elon musk is friends with Netanyahu, Jared kushner, and many other Zionists.

Considering you're over here deflecting from calling someone doing a nazi salute a nazi... yes, it's safe to say our definitions vary widely.
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