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Don't be dishonest... It's your app.
Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
121–130 of 202 posts
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#122Earlier quoted context omitted.
_sigh_ Yes LLMs hallucinate, no it's no longer 2022 and ChatGPT (gpt-3.5) is the pinnacle of LLM tech. Modern LLMs in an agentic loop can self correct, you still need to be on guard but if used correctly (yes, yes, holding it wrong etc. etc.) can do many, many tasks that do not suffer from "need to check every single time".
If a coworker is wrong 40% or 60% of the time I’ll ignore their suggestion either way
As you should, but an LLM is not a human, nor is it categorically 40-60% wrong, so I'm not sure what your point is.
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#123The "Wall Street tech sell-off" is QQQM being down 1.7% over the last five days and up 17.4% over the last six months
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#124The "Wall Street tech sell-off" is QQQM being down 1.7% over the last five days and up 17.4% over the last six months
It just started.
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#125Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's hard for me to imagine paying real money for something that gives me a maybe-hallucinated answer that I need to check every single time. A flaky test is worse than a failing test.
Plus I can run a reasonable LLM on my own hardware, so I don't even need to pay anyone else. And what I can run locally is only going to get better and better.
This is true, but this is also true for on-premise hosting vs cloud. And cloud has been booming for at least a decade before LLMs appeared. I suspect AI will follow a similar trajectory, i.e. companies don't move their AI deployments on-prem until they hit a certain scale.
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#126Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I guess that makes some kind of sense? Oracle raises 4x the debt of e.g. Google? The problem is why is Oracle raising this debt? It's to do the buildout for OpenAI. So Oracle buys GPUs from Nvidia. Nvidia invests in OpenAI. OpenAI then pays Oracle for the GPUs. i.e. we're going around in circles.
The statement here that Nvidia invests in OpenAI is a bit misleading. Nvidia would pay out nothing to OpenAI if OpenAI turns out to be too poor to pay for capacity. So they are not that exposed to the death of OpenAI specifically. They would be more at risk of making too many GPUs to prepare for the deals. Oracle takes a lot more risk, but in case OpenAI fails to grow quickly, it can still probably find buyers for it…
> Nvidia would pay out nothing to OpenAI if OpenAI turns out to be too poor to pay for capacity. So they are not that exposed to the death of OpenAI specifically.
Nvidia has invested billions in previous rounds of OpenAI raises also. Pretty sure it is not nothing.
Also OpenAI rents from CoreWeave that Nvidia has invested in.
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#127Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's hard for me to imagine paying real money for something that gives me a maybe-hallucinated answer that I need to check every single time. A flaky test is worse than a failing test.
_sigh_ Yes LLMs hallucinate, no it's no longer 2022 and ChatGPT (gpt-3.5) is the pinnacle of LLM tech. Modern LLMs in an agentic loop can self correct, you still need to be on guard but if used correctly (yes, yes, holding it wrong etc. etc.) can do many, many tasks that do not suffer from "need to check every single time".
I think the reason people talk past each other on this is that some of them are using LLMs for every little question they have, and others are using them only for questions that they can't trivially answer some other way. Sure, if all your questions have straightforward, uncontroversial answers then the LLMs will often find them on the first try, but on the other hand you'd also find them on the first try on wikipedia, or the man page, or a google search. You'll only think the ChatGPT is useful if you've forgotten how to use the web.
If you're only asking genuinely difficult questions, then you need to check every single time. And it's worse, because for genuinely difficult questions, it's often just as hard to check whether it's giving garbage as it would have been to learn enough to answer the question in the first place.
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#128Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#129Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#130Earlier quoted context omitted.
You're not implying there is corruption in the form of circular deal making in the AI/Tech industry, are you?
No, it's not "corruption". It's that very little real money changes hands. The smaller investors and debt providers get sucked into funding it but that's about it. You get GPU rentals. Not the actual billions raised they claim. So it's just creative accounting to count the same money 2-4x.
Hah. Well, back in ~2004 we had a different name for "creative accounting" to generate "revenue" while very little money chnages hands. Back then we called it fraud. But I guess terminology changes.