I'd be skeptical just because it's Oracle. Not exactly a sprightly company to bet on for novel technology.
On the other hand, if Oracle can't squeeze a profit out of AI, I'm skeptical anybody else can.
Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
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Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#52Earlier quoted context omitted.
_sigh_ Yes LLMs hallucinate, no it's no longer 2022 and ChatGPT (gpt-3.5) is the pinnacle of LLM tech. Modern LLMs in an agentic loop can self correct, you still need to be on guard but if used correctly (yes, yes, holding it wrong etc. etc.) can do many, many tasks that do not suffer from "need to check every single time".
really? >>many tasks that do not suffer from "need to check every single time" like which tasks? How do you decide whether you need to check or not? If you're asking it to complete 100 sequences, and if the error rate is 5%, which 5% of the sequences do you think it messed up or _thought_ otherwise? if the 5% is in the middle, would the next 50 sequences be okay?
> really? >>many tasks that do not suffer from "need to check every single time"
> like which tasks?
Making slop.
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#53I said this earlier but: It's interesting to see the market try to do anything to rally. The problem is you guys are rallying on the thought that you've scared the Fed into cutting rates, but actually by rallying you short circuit it. You ensure they won't cut. And that's how the market's lillypad hopping thinking is actually just stupidity. You rallied, so now there are no rate cuts so the crash will be even more br…
The Fed doesn't react to the market, it reacts to inflation and unemployment metrics for the most part.
Consumer spending and employment numbers aren't looking great, so a cut is still likely. All that's happening now is ensuring that there isn't much of a move when the expected cut actually happens.
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#54Earlier quoted context omitted.
_sigh_ Yes LLMs hallucinate, no it's no longer 2022 and ChatGPT (gpt-3.5) is the pinnacle of LLM tech. Modern LLMs in an agentic loop can self correct, you still need to be on guard but if used correctly (yes, yes, holding it wrong etc. etc.) can do many, many tasks that do not suffer from "need to check every single time".
really? >>many tasks that do not suffer from "need to check every single time" like which tasks? How do you decide whether you need to check or not? If you're asking it to complete 100 sequences, and if the error rate is 5%, which 5% of the sequences do you think it messed up or _thought_ otherwise? if the 5% is in the middle, would the next 50 sequences be okay?
If I ask an LLM to guess what number I’m thinking of and it’s wrong 99.9% of the time, the error is not in the LLM.
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#55I'd be skeptical just because it's Oracle. Not exactly a sprightly company to bet on for novel technology.
On the other hand, if Oracle can't squeeze a profit out of AI, I'm skeptical anybody else can.
How do you mean? Have they succeeded at squeezing any profit out of anything thats not Oracle DB?
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#56I can’t wait for the apocalyptic razing that’s coming.
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#57This the flipside of jumping up for no good reason on September 10th.
Its funny that its back to almost the same price before it jumped that day.
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#58I’m bullish on AI as tech but folks are starting to sniff out that the financials of everything going on at the moment aren’t sustainable for much longer. I hope we have more of a “reality correction” than full blown bubble bursting, but the data is increasingly looking like we’re about to have a massive implosion that wipes out a generation of startups and sets the VC ecosystem back a decade.
The most sobering statistic I've seen is that the entire combined amount of consumer spending on AI products is currently less than the revenue of Genshin Impact.
Well, Genshin Impact is at the forefront of predatory B2C business practice. It is a gacha game, engineered to extract as much money from its prey as possible.
On the other end, most AI company can afford to be generous with their user/consumer right now because they are being bankrolled by magic money.
The real test will be when they have to start the enshitification. Will the product still be enough to convince consumer to spend an amount of money guarantying a huge margin for the service provider ? Will they have to rely on whale desperately needing to talk to their IA girlfriend ? Or company and people who went deep into the whole vibe coding thing, and can't work without an agent ?
I think it is hard to say right now. But considering the price of the hardware and running it, I don't think they will have to price the service insanely to at least be profitable. To be as profitable as the market seems to believe, that's another story.
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#59So debt financing (Oracle) vs fund-it-more-on-your-own (other big tech?) vs fund-it-with-equity (startups?)... I guess that makes some kind of sense? Oracle raises 4x the debt of e.g. Google?
When you say debt financing (Oracle) does that mean Oracle is actually financing the loans to these other companies? Sorry if I'm misunderstanding.
They’re saying that Oracle has issued a lot of debt (like $60Bn) to fund their AI/datacenter commitments. Where as other companies, like MSFT, are using the cash in their balance sheet, and startups are using the cash they’ve gotten from investors
Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet
#60Its worse for some other "ai" related companies. Coreweave for instance, now has its CDS trade around 600bp, which is a 1/3 rise in 2 months, which implies that the probability of a default in 5 years is 40% at a 40 cent recovery rate. That makes Coreweave's credit rating the equivalent of CCC-, which aint good.
Yeah, and then the Canadian government handed hundreds of millions to the kids at Cohere who have now gone spent it on Coreweave. When it was all announced I was very very vocal that using an inexperienced startup for the sovereign compute capabilities seemed a very poor choice. I'm so curious to see how this all plays out.
> When it was all announced I was very very vocal that using an inexperienced startup for the sovereign compute capabilities seemed a very poor choice.
Cohere raised from Nvidia. Cohere spends on Coreweave. Coreweave raised from Nvidia and buys Nvidia chips.
This is why they buy from Coreweave.