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AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

tomwphillips.co.uk

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Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#91

Post by simonw »

buellerbueller wrote: post #82
simonw wrote: post #12

Tip for AI skeptics: skip the data center water usage argument. At this point I think it harms your credibility - numbers like "millions of liters of water annually" (from the linked article) sound scary when presented without context, but if you compare data centers to farmland or even golf courses they're minuscule. Other energy usage figures, air pollution, gas turbines, CO2 emissions etc are fine - but if you com…

Fine, fine: get rid of golf courses too. As for food production; that might be important? IDK, I am not a silicon "intelligence" so what do I know? Also, I have to "eat". Wouldn't it be a wonderful world if we can just replace ourselves, so that agriculture is unnecessary, and we can devote all that water to AGI. TIL that the true arc of humanity is to replace itself!

See comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45927268

Given the difference in water usage, more data centers does not mean less water for agriculture in any meaningful way.

If you genuinely want to save water you should celebrate any time an acre of farm land is converted into an acre of data center - all the more water for the other farms!

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#92

Post by dotnet00 »

IgorPartola wrote: post #21

It is ultimately a hardware problem. To simplify it greatly, an LLM neuron is a single input single output function. A human brain neuron takes in thousands of inputs and produces thousands of outputs, to the point that some inputs start being processed before they even get inside the cell by structures on the outside of it. An LLM neuron is an approximation of this. We cannot manufacture a human level neuron to be s…

Exactly why I cringe so hard when AI-bros make arguments equating AI neurons to biological neurons.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#93

Post by buellerbueller »

alyxya wrote: post #69

> Briefly, the argument goes that if there is a 0.001% chance of AGI delivering an extremely large amount of value, and 99.999% chance of much less or zero value, then the EV is still extremely large because (0.001% * very_large_value) + (99.999% * small_value) = very_large_value I haven't heard of that being the argument. The main perspective I'm aware of is that more powerful AI models have a compounding multiplier…

"The argument" ignores the opportunity cost of the other potential uses of the invested resources.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#94

Post by dist-epoch »

csomar wrote: post #52

What is funny is that when asked, the current LLMs/AIs, do not believe in an AGI. Here are the some of readings you can do about the AGI fantasy: - Gödel-style incompleteness and the “stability paradox” - Wolfram's principle - Principle of Computational Equivalence (PCE) One of the red flags is human intelligence/brain itself. We have way more neurons than we are currently using. The limit to intelligence might very…

The human brain existing is proof that "Gödel-style incompleteness" and "Wolfram's principle" are not barriers to AGI.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#96

Post by slightwinder »

simonw wrote: post #12

Tip for AI skeptics: skip the data center water usage argument. At this point I think it harms your credibility - numbers like "millions of liters of water annually" (from the linked article) sound scary when presented without context, but if you compare data centers to farmland or even golf courses they're minuscule. Other energy usage figures, air pollution, gas turbines, CO2 emissions etc are fine - but if you com…

> but if you compare data centers to farmland or even golf courses they're minuscule.

People are critical of farmland and golf courses, too. But Farmland at least has more benefit for society, so they are more vocal on how it's used.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#97

Post by the__alchemist »

simonw wrote: post #12

Tip for AI skeptics: skip the data center water usage argument. At this point I think it harms your credibility - numbers like "millions of liters of water annually" (from the linked article) sound scary when presented without context, but if you compare data centers to farmland or even golf courses they're minuscule. Other energy usage figures, air pollution, gas turbines, CO2 emissions etc are fine - but if you com…

I will go meta into what you posted here: That people are classifying themselves as "AI skeptics". Many people are treating this in terms of tribal conflict and identity politics. On HN, we can do better! IMO the move is drop the politics, and discuss things on their technical merits. If we do talk about it as a debate, we can do it when with open minds, and intellectual honesty.

I think much of this may be a reaction to the hype promoted by tech CEOs and media outlets. People are seeing through their lies and exaggerations, and taking positions like "AI/LLMs have no values or uses", then using every argument they hear as a reason why it is bad in a broad sense. For example: Energy and water concerns. That's my best guess about the concern you're braced against.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#98

Post by simonw »

Etherlord87 wrote: post #90
simonw wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2025/11/03/inside-the-dat... > I asked the farmer if he had noticed any environmental effects from living next to the data centers. The impact on the water supply, he told me, was negligible. "Honestly, we probably use more water than they do," he said. (Training a state-of-the-art A.I. requires less water than is used on a square mile of farmland in a year.) Power is a differe…

A farmer is a valuable perspective but imagine asking a lumberjack about the ecological effects of deforestation, he might know more about it than an average Joe, but there's probably better people to ask for expertise? > Honestly, we probably use more water than they do This kind of proves my point, regardless of the actual truth in this regard, it's a terrible argument to make: availability of water starts to becom…

The author of the article followed the quote from the farmer with a fact-checked (this is the New Yorker) note about water usage for AI training.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#99

Post by friendzis »

IgorPartola wrote: post #21

It is ultimately a hardware problem. To simplify it greatly, an LLM neuron is a single input single output function. A human brain neuron takes in thousands of inputs and produces thousands of outputs, to the point that some inputs start being processed before they even get inside the cell by structures on the outside of it. An LLM neuron is an approximation of this. We cannot manufacture a human level neuron to be s…

> We would need a new hardware paradigm.

It's not even that. The architecture(s) behind LLMs are nowhere near close that of a brain. The brain has multiple entry-points for different signals and uses different signaling across different parts. A brain of a rodent is much more complex than LLMs are.

Re: AGI fantasy is a blocker to actual engineering

#100

Post by buellerbueller »

simonw wrote: post #91
buellerbueller wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fine, fine: get rid of golf courses too. As for food production; that might be important? IDK, I am not a silicon "intelligence" so what do I know? Also, I have to "eat". Wouldn't it be a wonderful world if we can just replace ourselves, so that agriculture is unnecessary, and we can devote all that water to AGI. TIL that the true arc of humanity is to replace itself!

See comment here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45927268 Given the difference in water usage, more data centers does not mean less water for agriculture in any meaningful way. If you genuinely want to save water you should celebrate any time an acre of farm land is converted into an acre of data center - all the more water for the other farms!

the value of datacenters is dubious. the value of agriculture, less so.
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