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This should be the news of the day, or even should I say, the news of the last 3 years. The bubble is starting to crack.
There's no sign of cracking here: > SoftBank said Tuesday it has sold its entire stake in U.S. chipmaker Nvidia for $5.83 billion as the Japanese giant looks to capitalize its “all in” bet on ChatGPT maker OpenAI.
-3% straight after opening of the stock market 20 min ago.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would have thought that the OpenAI bet is way more risky, because if someone comes along with a better model it could really hurt OpenAI. NVIDIA seems harder to dethrone imo.
In many ways OpenAI is transitioning towards an end-user facing product business. They have by far the strongest brand among consumers and are positioning themselves to take on Google/Meta in the ad business. By proxy, having the strongest frontier model becomes less and less necessary for them and instead building a strong product by properly layering medium-strong models in a cost-efficient way is the priority.
In the end, regardless of technical understanding, people will always shop around on price if the feature set is similar enough I suppose.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> They have by far the strongest brand They don't really, because of Gemini and Grok. If it was OpenAI vs Claude then yeah, ChatGPT is known whereas Claude you have to be an enthusiast to know. But everyone using Google runs into Gemini and everyone using X runs into Grok, and people talk. Now even the laypeople know there is more than one AI, and they're from big brands that they trust. Which means that people will…
Does anyone trust Xitter? If so, they shouldn't.
The question is: now that Nvidia is the new Intel, is OpenAI the new Microsoft?
Softbank clearly thinks so.
Hahah! Fucking hell, openai is going to fail big time, they have nearly a 1,5 TRILLION USD in debt. There is no way they can handle that, their only option is to cozy up with trumo and make the tax payers pay for all that.
Note the first line: > SoftBank said Tuesday it has sold its entire stake in U.S. chipmaker Nvidia for $5.83 billion as the Japanese giant looks to capitalize its “all in” bet on ChatGPT maker OpenAI. They are switching gears, not exiting, folks.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Given how poorly Intel and AMD have fared, it suggests the hardware moat is much deeper than the software one.
Nvidia's moat is their pace of performance growth, which is hardware + software + cultural. If they skip a beat, or it becomes impossible to increase performance (TSMC node stumble or P4-style dead-end), then it won't take long for someone to catch up. If they keep executing on better hardware performance + software to support it? They keep the money spigot on.
No AI player will admit to be positioning for a sector collapse but it would be naïve to believe that anyone close to ground zero isn't planning contingency plans and are just coasting in the golden age of AI. And those who have the most skin in the game are certainly the ones most incentivise to do so while denying their true intentions.
LLMs are going no where but the reality of them not being the civilisation shifting money makers people have hyped them up to be is undeniably setting no matter what the AI astroturfers hiding in HN tell you. People have been jumping off the train or positioning to reach the closest chair when the music stops. Not long ago 2023, the world bubble was just whispered here. 2 years later it has hit mainstream and has been uttered by people holding the money bags. It might be a dream or it might not.
The difference is that, if you were in denial, now you are seeing signs that are much harder to deny. And we should expect the upcoming signs to be harder and harder, until the number of people denying reaches to zero right as the bubble fully bursts and the AI startups layoffs begin.
This should be the news of the day, or even should I say, the news of the last 3 years. The bubble is starting to crack.
SoftBank selling their stake in the AI shovel company to put it all directly in the AI gold rush company is evidence of bubble starting to crack?
There are 3 facts here:
1. Softbank's nvidia stake sale has happened
2. Softbank has not put it all directly into the AI gold rush
3. 2 other investment entities have also sold most/all their stake in Nvidia
Do what these 3 facts as you will but these are ripples in the surface of the tech world
"All in on OpenAI" Hahah! Fucking hell, openai is going to fail big time, they have nearly a 1,5 TRILLION USD in debt. There is no way they can handle that, their only option is to cozy up with trumo and make the tax payers pay for all that.
Seems your 1.5Tn figure is in "spending commitments" and not current/hard debts. I.e. budget earmarked for datacenters and research from '25-'35 or so.