Microsoft: Shortage of tech workers in the US becoming 'genuine crisis' • Hacker News Board

Re: Microsoft: Shortage of tech workers in the US becoming 'genuine crisis'

#81

Post by WiseWeasel » Fri, Sep 28, 2012, 7:46 PM UTC

vonmoltke wrote: post #80

WiseWeasel wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You made me curious, so here's a list of US cities with more average rainy/snowy days per year than Seattle[1]: 223: Juneau, Alaska 209: Mt. Washington, N.H. 169: Buffalo, N.Y. 163: Olympia, Wash. 161: Caribou, Maine 155 (tied, interestingly): Cleveland, Ohio 155: Seattle-Tacoma, Wash. At 37 inches of rain per year, it's not a particularly high volume of rain; it's just spread out over a lot of days. San Francisco is…

155 (tied, interestingly): Cleveland, Ohio Lake effect snow Anyway, compare this to where I'm from (South Florida)[1]: Average rainy days - 135 Average rainfall - 62" - 64" [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miami,_fl#Climate

Well, Microsoft would have to pay me a LOT to move to South Florida as well. : P

Re: Microsoft: Shortage of tech workers in the US becoming 'genuine crisis'

#82

Post by jsnk » Fri, Sep 28, 2012, 8:11 PM UTC

geebee wrote: post #24

jsnk wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand your point, but if you prefer to allow the market to set employment and wage level, you should be for much looser immigration. The government regulating immigration is anything but free market. If the government were to loosen requirement for STEM immigrants, that is having freer market, not less.

This is a huge disagreement between us. If you loosen immigration in general, then you may have freer markets. But if you loosen them only in a narrow segment of the economy and while restricting mobility in others, you may end up creating severe market distortions that don't resemble a free market in any way. If almost every country and profession had equally liberal immigration policies, then yes, I'd agree. But we…

I am not making judgment on whether or not if freer immigration is good for economy or not. I am not making any qualitative judgment on the issue. And you may be right that it may create severe market distortions. I don't know and that's not what I am disputing.

I am only stating that freer immigration is having freer market, even if freer immigration were to be applied to small group of STEM people.

Consider what I am saying with taxation. If the federal government were to exempt income tax for a portion of population making less than $50,000/year, then this is having a freer market, not less. Yes, it will lead to reduction in government revenue. Yes, it may lead to deteriorating public infrastructure. But it is still free market policy.

Re: Microsoft: Shortage of tech workers in the US becoming 'genuine crisis'

#83

Post by jsnk » Fri, Sep 28, 2012, 8:18 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #48

jsnk wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I understand your point, but if you prefer to allow the market to set employment and wage level, you should be for much looser immigration. The government regulating immigration is anything but free market. If the government were to loosen requirement for STEM immigrants, that is having freer market, not less.

There is an externality to letting in more people though. The hiring companies get all the upside in form of more workers, but the public as a whole takes on the downside risk of supporting them if they're unemployed, retraining them if they're unemployed, integrating them culturally, etc. The public commits to educating those peoples' kids for free for 12-13 years and at subsidized prices for college, supporting the…

I actually agree with you on that point. If having a freer immigration policy leads to populating a country with people who aren't for free market, is the freer immigration policy actually a free market policy? It's a difficult question for sure.

Re: Microsoft: Shortage of tech workers in the US becoming 'genuine crisis'

#84

Post by canistr » Fri, Sep 28, 2012, 8:29 PM UTC

rayiner wrote: post #72

canistr wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But that's exactly what's already happening. What's missing from the equation is the "skilled" aspect. You can't just hire anybody. A tech firm needs to hire tech people who can do the job. The current problem in the United States is that the supply of people is high but the supply of skilled tech people is low. So the problem you're facing is high-wages for skilled tech workers (even for immigrant tech workers) but…

MSFT doesn't have to hire just anybody. If they pay more than Google, etc, they'll draw people away from those companies. If they pay more than JP Morgan and Goldman, they'll draw people away from those companies. If they pay more than the law firms that significant numbers of CS people leave engineering for, they'll draw people away from those companies. If the whole industry raises salaries to compete, that will co…

But it's not simply a question of money and having skilled people move to the highest bidder. The difference here is that we have high unemployment rates across the country, high unemployment for new grads, and a relatively small STEM workforce.

Throwing money at this issue only moves the same group of smart, educated, and skilled people from the same level of jobs. That's not the problem. The problem is that the supply of these talented people is small because the lower education is weak.

Finally, I think it's interesting you advised someone stay out of STEM but out of the "banking/consulting/law/medicine" you mentioned, only law is not explicitly STEM. Banking and consulting still have elements of Mathematics and Medicine is still very much in the realm of Science.

Re: Microsoft: Shortage of tech workers in the US becoming 'genuine crisis'

#85

Post by rayiner » Fri, Sep 28, 2012, 8:36 PM UTC

canistr wrote: post #84

rayiner wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

MSFT doesn't have to hire just anybody. If they pay more than Google, etc, they'll draw people away from those companies. If they pay more than JP Morgan and Goldman, they'll draw people away from those companies. If they pay more than the law firms that significant numbers of CS people leave engineering for, they'll draw people away from those companies. If the whole industry raises salaries to compete, that will co…

But it's not simply a question of money and having skilled people move to the highest bidder. The difference here is that we have high unemployment rates across the country, high unemployment for new grads, and a relatively small STEM workforce. Throwing money at this issue only moves the same group of smart, educated, and skilled people from the same level of jobs. That's not the problem. The problem is that the sup…

> Throwing money at this issue only moves the same group of smart, educated, and skilled people from the same level of jobs. That's not the problem. The problem is that the supply of these talented people is small because the lower education is weak.

You think the problem is that the math/science education isn't there? Please. There are a ton of universities across the country with great CS departments who would be happy to have a bunch of new students. The students just choose not to enroll in those degrees. If you want more students to enroll in those degrees, make the field more attractive for people.

> Finally, I think it's interesting you advised someone stay out of STEM but out of the "banking/consulting/law/medicine" you mentioned, only law is not explicitly STEM. Banking and consulting still have elements of Mathematics and Medicine is still very much in the realm of Science.

I didn't mean I'd encourage them to avoid STEM degrees. I think those degrees are very valuable. I meant I'd encourage them to take their STEm degrees to professions where they'd get better pay, better benefits, etc.

Re: Microsoft: Shortage of tech workers in the US becoming 'genuine crisis'

#86

Post by MartinCron » Fri, Sep 28, 2012, 8:42 PM UTC

WiseWeasel wrote: post #73

MartinCron wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The stack ranking BS is (allegedly) a thing of the past, and the rain in Seattle is overblown. There are plenty of US cities that get more rain than Seattle. I won't challenge your opinion about Steve Ballmer, though.

You made me curious, so here's a list of US cities with more average rainy/snowy days per year than Seattle[1]: 223: Juneau, Alaska 209: Mt. Washington, N.H. 169: Buffalo, N.Y. 163: Olympia, Wash. 161: Caribou, Maine 155 (tied, interestingly): Cleveland, Ohio 155: Seattle-Tacoma, Wash. At 37 inches of rain per year, it's not a particularly high volume of rain; it's just spread out over a lot of days. San Francisco is…

I don't consider that a fair assessment, as a snowy day is a very different thing from a rainy day. Seattle gets maybe a handful of snowy days a year, and never gets punishingly hot/humid like some cities do.

Re: Microsoft: Shortage of tech workers in the US becoming 'genuine crisis'

#87

Post by dccoolgai » Fri, Sep 28, 2012, 8:42 PM UTC

johngalt wrote: post #33

The technology cycle generally goes: 1. A few big wins causes a huge bubble. 2. Tons of sub standard tech workers jump on the bandwagon for the money. In some cases these are outright con artists. 3. Average skill plummets as the market is flooded with cheap beginners and pretenders. 4. Market implodes. Everyone jumps off the sinking ship. Only people who stay are dedicated to the field regardless of market dynamics.…

I call this the tech "circle of life". You can trace the occurence of stage 2 pretty closely by spikes in the number of people majoring in CS. You can make a ton of money by investing in tech companies at stage 4/5 and selling at stage 2/3.

Re: Microsoft: Shortage of tech workers in the US becoming 'genuine crisis'

#88

Post by tokenadult » Fri, Sep 28, 2012, 9:39 PM UTC

panda_person wrote: post #37

johngalt wrote: post #33

The technology cycle generally goes: 1. A few big wins causes a huge bubble. 2. Tons of sub standard tech workers jump on the bandwagon for the money. In some cases these are outright con artists. 3. Average skill plummets as the market is flooded with cheap beginners and pretenders. 4. Market implodes. Everyone jumps off the sinking ship. Only people who stay are dedicated to the field regardless of market dynamics.…

Everyone is a beginner at some point.

Everyone is a beginner at some point.

True enough. On the other hand, some people stay beginners much longer than others.

Re: Microsoft: Shortage of tech workers in the US becoming 'genuine crisis'

#89

Post by gms » Fri, Sep 28, 2012, 11:35 PM UTC

yajoe wrote: post #69

DenisM wrote: post #38

I am absolutely confident there is no shortage of good software engineers willing to drop everything and move to another part of the country for $500k/year. Absolutely no shortage. If you raise your wages, you will find someone to do the work. If you can't afford to raise the wages, your business plan is not viable. I mean, I could use a houseworker to clean my house for $1 per day, does it mean I should get my wish…

There are many people leaving Microsoft right now. Mostly good people. There are four types of people who stay at Microsoft: 1) Top performers who are on a fast-track ( 2) People who can't get jobs elsewhere (30%) 3) People who have families and are tied to Redmond area (40%) 4) People who can get jobs elsewhere but have visa restrictions and are afraid to upset their status (30%) Everyone else leaves or has already…

Being on a visa allows you to switch jobs. The new company has to pay a small fee to do it, but any medium-to-large company will do it.

Re: Microsoft: Shortage of tech workers in the US becoming 'genuine crisis'

#90

Post by DenisM » Sat, Sep 29, 2012, 1:44 AM UTC

yajoe wrote: post #69

DenisM wrote: post #38

I am absolutely confident there is no shortage of good software engineers willing to drop everything and move to another part of the country for $500k/year. Absolutely no shortage. If you raise your wages, you will find someone to do the work. If you can't afford to raise the wages, your business plan is not viable. I mean, I could use a houseworker to clean my house for $1 per day, does it mean I should get my wish…

There are many people leaving Microsoft right now. Mostly good people. There are four types of people who stay at Microsoft: 1) Top performers who are on a fast-track ( 2) People who can't get jobs elsewhere (30%) 3) People who have families and are tied to Redmond area (40%) 4) People who can get jobs elsewhere but have visa restrictions and are afraid to upset their status (30%) Everyone else leaves or has already…

>I personally find it heart-wrenching to watch friends who would leave their abusive situations and work for a start-up but cannot due to silly visa paperwork.

H1B holders can switch from company to company without problems, there is a small amount of paperwork and a fee. Greencard applications are also transferable.