Live data from Hacker News

LLMs are steroids for your Dunning-Kruger

bytesauna.com

41–50 of 308 posts

Re: LLMs are steroids for your Dunning-Kruger

#41

I ascribe the effect of LLMs as similar to reading the newspaper, when I learn about something I have no knowledge base in I come away feeling like I learned a lot. When I interact with a newspaper or LLM in an area where I have real domain expertise I realize they don’t know what they are talking about - which is concerning about the information I get from them about topics I don’t have that high level of domain exp…

And why stop at newspapers, it's been a while since one could say books have any integrity, pretty much anyone can get anything into print these days. From political shenanigans to self help books designed to confirm people's biases to sell more units. Video's by far the hardest to fake but that's changing as well.

Regardless of what media you get your info from you have to be selective of what sources you trust. It's more true today than ever before, because the bar for creating content has never been lower.

Re: LLMs are steroids for your Dunning-Kruger

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This captures my experience quite well. I can "get a lot more done," but it's not really me doing the things, and I feel like a bit of a fraud. And as the workday and the workweek roll on, I find myself needing to force myself to look things up and experiment rather than just asking the LLM. It's quite clear that for most people LLMs will make the more dependent. People with better discipline I think will really bene…

>it's not really me doing the things, and I feel like a bit of a fraud I've been thinking about this a bit. We don't really think this way in other areas, is it appropriate to think this way here? My car has an automatic transmission, am I a fraud because the machine is shifting gears for me? My tractor plows a field, am I a fraud because I'm not using draft horses or digging manually? Spell check caught a word, am I…

I've been thinking about that comparison as well. A common fantasy is that civilization will collapse and the guy who knows how to hunt and start a fire will really excel. In practice, this never happens and he's sort of left behind unless he also has other skills relevant to the modern world.

And, for instance, I have barely any knowledge of how my computer works, but it's a tool I use to do my job. (and to have fun at home.)

Why are these different than using LLMs? I think at least for me the distinction is whether or not something enables me to perform a task, or whether it's just doing the task for me. If I had to write my own OS and word processor just to write a letter, it'd never happen. The fact that the computer does this for me facilitates my task. I could write the letter by hand, but doing it in a word processor is way better. Especially if I want to print multiple copies of the letter.

But for LLMs, my task might be something like "setting up apache is easy, but I've never done it so just tell me how do it so I don't fumble through learning and make it take way longer." The task was setting up Apache. The task was assigned to me, but I didn't really do it. There wasn't necessarily some higher level task that I merely needed Apache for. Apache was the whole task! And I didn't do it!

Now, this will not be the case for all LLM-enabled tasks, but I think this distinction speaks to my experience. In the previous word processor example, the LLM would just write my document for me. It doesn't allow me to write my document more efficiently. It's efficient, only in the sense that I no longer need to actually do it myself, except for maybe to act as an editor. (and most people don't even do much of that work) My skill in writing either atrophies or never fully develops since I don't actually need to spend any time doing it or thinking about it.

In a perfect world, I use self-discipline to have the LLM show me how to set up Apache, then take notes, and then research, and then set it up manually in subsequent runs; I'd have benefited from learning the task much more quickly than if I'd done it alone, but also used my self-discipline to make sure I actually really learned something and developed expertise as well. My argument is that most people will not succeed in doing this, and will just let the LLM think for them.

Re: LLMs are steroids for your Dunning-Kruger

#43

I feel like when I talk to someone and they tell me a fact, that fact goes into a kind of holding space, where I apply a filter of 'who is this person that is telling me this thing to know what the thing they are telling me is'. There's how well I know them, there's the other beleifs I know they have, there's their professional experience and their personal experience. That fact then gets marked as 'probably a true f…

Reminds me of "default to null":

> The mental motion of “I didn’t really parse that paragraph, but sure, whatever, I’ll take the author’s word for it” is, in my introspective experience, absolutely identical to “I didn’t really parse that paragraph because it was bot-generated and didn’t make any sense so I couldn’t possibly have parsed it”, except that in the first case, I assume that the error lies with me rather than the text. This is not a safe assumption in a post-GPT2 world. Instead of “default to humility” (assume that when you don’t understand a passage, the passage is true and you’re just missing something) the ideal mental action in a world full of bots is “default to null” (if you don’t understand a passage, assume you’re in the same epistemic state as if you’d never read it at all.)

https://www.greaterwrong.com/posts/4AHXDwcGab5PhKhHT/humans-...

Re: LLMs are steroids for your Dunning-Kruger

#44
Speaking of uncertainty, I wish more people would accept their uncertainty with regards to the future of LLMs rather than dash off yet another cocksure article about how LLMs are {X}, and therefore {completely useless}|{world-changing}.

Quantity has a quality of its own. The first chess engine to beat Gary Kasparov wasn't fundamentally different than earlier ones--it just had a lot more compute power.

The original Google algorithm was trivial: rank web pages by incoming links--its superhuman power at giving us answers ("I'm feeling lucky") was/is entirely due to a massive trove of data.

And remember all the articles about how unreliable Wikipedia was? How can you trust something when anyone can edit a page? But again, the power of quantity--thousands or millions of eyeballs identifying errors--swamped any simple attacks.

Yes, LLMs are literally just matmul. How can anything useful, much less intelligent, emerge from multiplying numbers really fast? But then again, how can anything intelligent emerge from a wet mass of brain cells? After all, we're just meat. How can meat think?

Re: LLMs are steroids for your Dunning-Kruger

#45
post #4

I'm not sure this is something I really worry about. Whenever I use an LLM I feel dumber, not smarter; there's a sensation of relying on a crutch instead of having done the due diligence of learning something myself. I'm less confident in the knowledge and less likely to present it as such. Is anyone really cocksure on the basis of LLM received knowledge? > As I ChatGPT user I notice that I’m often left with a sense…

> Is anyone really cocksure on the basis of LLM received knowledge?

Some people certainly seem to be. You see this a lot on webforums; someone spews a lot of confident superficially plausible-looking nonsense, then when someone points out that it is nonsense, they say they got it from a magic robot.

I think this is particularly common for non-tech people, who are more likely to believe that the magic robots are actually intelligent.

Re: LLMs are steroids for your Dunning-Kruger

#46
post #4

I'm not sure this is something I really worry about. Whenever I use an LLM I feel dumber, not smarter; there's a sensation of relying on a crutch instead of having done the due diligence of learning something myself. I'm less confident in the knowledge and less likely to present it as such. Is anyone really cocksure on the basis of LLM received knowledge? > As I ChatGPT user I notice that I’m often left with a sense…

I remember back when I was in secondary school, something commonly heard was "Don't just trust wikipedia, check it's resources, because it's crowdsourced and can be wrong". Now, almost 2 decades later, I rarely hear this stance and I see people relying on wikipedia as an authoritative source of truth. i.e, linking to wikipedia instead of the underlying sources. In the same sense, I can see that "Don't trust LLMs" wil…

> Now, almost 2 decades later, I rarely hear this stance and I see people relying on wikipedia as an authoritative source of truth. i.e, linking to wikipedia instead of the underlying sources.

That's a different scenario. You shouldn't _cite wikipedia in a paper_ (instead you should generally use its sources), but it's perfectly fine in most circumstances to link it in the course of an internet argument or whatever.

Re: LLMs are steroids for your Dunning-Kruger

#47
post #10

I very much agree. I've been telling folks in trainings that I do that the term "artificial intelligence" is a cognitohazard, in that it pre-consciously steers you to conceptualize a LLM as an entity . LLMs are cool and useful technology, but if you approach them with the attitude you're talking with an other , you are leaving yourself vulnerable to all sorts of cognitive distortions.

I don't think that is actually a problem. For decades people have believed that computers can't be wrong. Why, now, suddenly, would it be worse if they believed the computer wasn't a computer?

The larger problem is cognitive offloading. The people for whom this is a problem were already not doing the cognitive work of verifying facts and forming their own opinions. Maybe they watched the news, read a Wikipedia article, or listened to a TEDtalk, but the results are the same: an opinion they felt confident in without a verified basis.

To the extent this is on 'steroids', it is because they see it as an expert (in everything) computer and because it is so much faster than watching a TED talk or reading a long form article.

Re: LLMs are steroids for your Dunning-Kruger

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>it's not really me doing the things, and I feel like a bit of a fraud I've been thinking about this a bit. We don't really think this way in other areas, is it appropriate to think this way here? My car has an automatic transmission, am I a fraud because the machine is shifting gears for me? My tractor plows a field, am I a fraud because I'm not using draft horses or digging manually? Spell check caught a word, am I…

I've been thinking about that comparison as well. A common fantasy is that civilization will collapse and the guy who knows how to hunt and start a fire will really excel. In practice, this never happens and he's sort of left behind unless he also has other skills relevant to the modern world. And, for instance, I have barely any knowledge of how my computer works, but it's a tool I use to do my job. (and to have fun…

I remember seeing a tweet awhile back that talked about how modernity separated work from physicality, and now you have to do exercise on purpose. I think the Internet plus car-driven societies had done something similar to being social, and LLMs are doing something to both thinking, as well as the kind of virtue that enables one to master a craft.

So, while it's an imperfect answer that I haven't really nailed down yet, maybe the answer is just to realize this and make sure we're doing hard things on purpose sometimes. This stuff has enabled free time, we just can't use it to doomscroll.

Re: LLMs are steroids for your Dunning-Kruger

#49
post #34

>“the problem with the world is that the stupid are cocksure, while the intelligent are full of doubt.” Is it me or does everyone find that dumb people seem to use this statement more than ever?

Everyone thinks they're the intelligent ones, of course. Which reinforces the repetition ad nauseam of Dunning Kruger. Which is on itself dumb AF because the effect described by Dunning and Kruger has been repeatedly exaggerated and misinterpreted. Which in turn is even dumber because Dunning-Kruger effect is debatable and reproducibility is weak at best.

Yeah, nobody who ever mentions the DK effect (myself included) ever stops to consider they might be in the "dumb" cohort ;)

We are all geniuses!

Re: LLMs are steroids for your Dunning-Kruger

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've been thinking about that comparison as well. A common fantasy is that civilization will collapse and the guy who knows how to hunt and start a fire will really excel. In practice, this never happens and he's sort of left behind unless he also has other skills relevant to the modern world. And, for instance, I have barely any knowledge of how my computer works, but it's a tool I use to do my job. (and to have fun…

I remember seeing a tweet awhile back that talked about how modernity separated work from physicality, and now you have to do exercise on purpose. I think the Internet plus car-driven societies had done something similar to being social, and LLMs are doing something to both thinking, as well as the kind of virtue that enables one to master a craft. So, while it's an imperfect answer that I haven't really nailed down…

>Internet plus car-driven societies had done something similar to being social,

That's an interesting take on the loneliness crisis that I had not considered. I think you're really onto something. Thanks for sharing. I don't want to dive into this topic too much since it's political and really off-topic for the thread, but thank you for suggesting this.

Post reply on HN