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AI isn't replacing jobs. AI spending is

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431–440 of 580 posts

Re: AI isn't replacing jobs. AI spending is

#431
post #135
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Offshoring/outsourcing is nice on paper, but as management doesn’t have to deal with time zones, in reality it is much more chaos than expected. And how do they want to deal with fuckups? Thru Slack or Discord? :) We had British SaaS supplier and all the time I have talked with Bangalore-based people. They had to work in night I suppose…

Also, Indian culture has a huge ‘overpromise, then try to cover it up’ issue at all levels. Outsourcers have really mastered it though. Source: lived in India for a year.

I don’t see that as Indian culture as much as outsourcing. I’ve had tons of that from entirely domestic contractors, including people who’d bid on a project only to admit their team didn’t have the domain experience promised. I’m talking about things as basic as telling the client that they needed to buy an enormous SQL Server cluster because their “developers” didn’t know how to limit joins and were had deeply-nested loops processing duplicate results.

They do this because it often works: business people often lack the experience to tell whether excuses are correct, and large organizations have enough project churn that it’s entirely possible to wing it for the duration of a contract / pivot, get paid, and move on before someone knowledgeable notices that the old deliverables didn’t really work.

What they had in common was greed, and I think that’s where the association with India comes from, too, but as a selection bias affecting people who don’t otherwise have exposure to Indian workers: there’s a floor on what a productive developer is going to get paid – someone smart enough to do the job is also smart enough to realize when they’re being underpaid and all of the abuses I’ve seen were cases where some combination of the outsourcing outfit and senior management were basically saying “why cut our cost by just 30% when we can find someone who’ll show up to work for ¼ of our staff rate?” and then acting surprised when they can’t retain decent people (e.g. I once talked to a guy who had two clues to rub together as he was leaving and learned he was getting ⅓ of the hourly rate and bailed as quickly as possible to get closer to market rate). Less ethical American companies do that, too, but they still lose to the even cheaper body shops so they aren’t as successful, but in all cases I would say it’s not the entire nation’s culture but the subset of fake-it-til-you-make-it business types. Plenty of people in both countries detest that and don’t deserve to be lumped in with them.

Re: AI isn't replacing jobs. AI spending is

#432

If AI really generates the value it claims to cutting jobs is short sighted. If existing human knowledge is commoditized, then we should be able to invest in generating new knowledge, and creating new kinds of products that were not even possible before.

And if AI makes workers more efficient, then businesses not actively hiring more employees are admitting that even with extra resources they have no strategy to grow their business. Like, if one person is effective as ten people, then a business should be able to grow quicker since their operating costs are effectively lower freeing up capital for growth. So either their business is a dead end, the inefficiency is at…

> So either their business is a dead end, the inefficiency is at the management layer, or AI isn’t actually making workers more efficient.

I'd bet on all three being generally true.

Re: AI isn't replacing jobs. AI spending is

#433
I am really surprised how well AI excuse works, most journalists just take CEO words as is, and make no effort to assess: is that even credible?

Obviously layoffs correlate with AI age, but it's most definitely not AI replacing jobs, not yet. Even in 2025 stories about a job fully taken by AI need to be scraped for, and it's almost always about non-SWE jobs. And in 2023, when the first layoffs already started, models sucked and none of the existing tools and agents even existed yet! But if you search for example for headcount growth in India/Mexico, the numbers can only be described as "booming".

I don't know what exactly is going on, but it's pretty obvious the companies are moving offshore or simply doing less work, and for some reason need to lie about why.

Re: AI isn't replacing jobs. AI spending is

#434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remote work benefits workers too, though: 1. It enables them to live in lower cost of living cities. This makes them more competitive relative to outsourcing because a lower wage in a cheaper city goes farther. 2. It opens up the job pool. If you work remote, you can work at any company that takes remote workers regardless of where you live. 3. It reduces the cost of switching jobs. Many people are stuck in jobs they…

1. The cheapest American city is maybe half thr cost of the most expensive. Meanwhile in the most expensive Indian city, one could live like a king at 1/3 the cost of the cheapest American city with far more culture and things to do. And if you were willing to move to the cheapest Indian cities you could halve that again. 2. Correct. Given that the majority of SW jobs, especially the highest paying ones, were located…

> The cheapest American city is maybe half thr cost of the most expensive.

I currently live in Seattle. On Zillow, I can find a house in the small town where I grew up with the same stats as mine (square footage, number of bedrooms, baths). That house is about a fourth of the cost that Zillow says my current home is worth.

Oh, and the house in the small town has a 750' storage building out back. And another 1,500' shop. And five acres of land. And a fish pond.

Re: AI isn't replacing jobs. AI spending is

#435
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FWIW, I get on the order of $40/hour as a senior with almost 10 years experience, and it allows me not to worry too much about spending (with a wife earning about a third of my salary and two kids). I think I could easily earn at least 50% more if I wanted to work for some rich but soul-crushing corp, but for obvious reasons I don't do that. I guess US cost of living is just insane. (I live in central Europe.)

> FWIW, I get on the order of $40/hour as a senior with almost 10 years experience, and it allows me not to worry too much about spending (with a wife earning about a third of my salary and two kids) How much do you pay annually out of pocket for health insurance premiums and other healthcare expenses? In the US that expense is very high, and is a major source of worry for working families.

My wife is a full-time-mother and is currently uninsured because we'd be looking at doubling the cost of insurance, and paying close to 25k a year for insurance. It is a completely broken system at this point.

Re: AI isn't replacing jobs. AI spending is

#436

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it really hard to understand that the infrastructure for remote work, which I think everyone would agree got a major upgrade during the pandemic, would also make it much easier for companies to outsource software dev work? Pre-2015 or so, yes, of course there was outsourcing, but it was honestly a major PITA in most cases. Most communication was done in conference calls, very little group video communication, lots…

>Is it really hard to understand that the infrastructure for remote work, which I think everyone would agree got a major upgrade during the pandemic, would also make it much easier for companies to outsource software dev work? No, because it wasn't actually upgraded. Like be honest, the shift into remote work wasn't surrounded by massive tech advances or upgrades. All the tools that existed for remote work had been t…

> All the tools that existed for remote work had been there, largely in the same fashion and capability, for decades.

Trying to be charitable, but that is just complete nonsense. I managed an offshore team in 2007, and I managed offshore devs in 2022, and the experiences were world and away different. You're either totally full of shit or just managed teams on some other planet or something.

Re: AI isn't replacing jobs. AI spending is

#437

I can assure you a lot of veteran devs in my company who had major impact were let ago because of off shoring to India and Poland. My employer is a very well known financial institution, think Blackrock, Bloomberg etc. Public press paints picture of the firm laying off due to adoption of AI. Yet, I can assure you without doubt its not because of it but due to continued offshore. I think we are at the brink of opening…

But you can make more money. And if you don't, then it's crime against the fiduciary.

Exactly, you're on the hook to profit-max for the next quarterly earnings report. If that may negatively impact subsequent quarters, not your problems, that's to be resolved when profit-maxing those quarters

Re: AI isn't replacing jobs. AI spending is

#438
post #363

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see the relation. A "ghost job posting" is not evidence of recent graduates failing to meet the requirements of the past; it is a job posting an employer has no intention of filling to begin with.

You said: > Surely this would be indicated by a glut of unfilled job postings. I posted a link about Ghost jobs. Then, you said: >[...]it is a job posting an employer has no intention of filling to begin with. GP' comment speaks to recent graduates feeling less engaged. Whether it's because they fail to meet the requirements, or the requirements are literally fake doesn't matter. AI isn't used simply to cheat on cour…

I still don't understand the connection—you can't measure level of competency this way.

Re: AI isn't replacing jobs. AI spending is

#439

I can assure you a lot of veteran devs in my company who had major impact were let ago because of off shoring to India and Poland. My employer is a very well known financial institution, think Blackrock, Bloomberg etc. Public press paints picture of the firm laying off due to adoption of AI. Yet, I can assure you without doubt its not because of it but due to continued offshore. I think we are at the brink of opening…

Are visa restrictions deterring or promoting this offshoring?

[flagged]

Re: AI isn't replacing jobs. AI spending is

#440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you might be confusing 'devaluation' with 'loss of spending power'. The dollar hasn't really lost value compared to other currencies. The thing that would do that would a loss of faith in the US to pay its debts, not the inability for the dollar to sustain a certain purchasing power.

> The dollar hasn't really lost value compared to other currencies Yes it has. Euro costs 10% more in USD than one year ago

> Yes it has. Euro costs 10% more in USD than one year ago.

But more or less only the euro. The USD has strengthened or held steady against INR, RMB, CAD, AUD, etc. The euro is strengthening even more, however.

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