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A Fond Farewell

farmersalmanac.com

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Re: A Fond Farewell

#141

Post by MichaelZuo »

gaoshan wrote: post #139
herodotus wrote: post #138

In the early 1990's, during my days as a Comp. Sci. prof, I was so excited about the emergence of the internet. When I saw the Mosaic browser (a precursor to Netscape and later Firefox) I knew the world had changed for the better. Now I have such mixed feelings. Magazines (like the Farmers Almanac) either go online completely or just disappear. They just cannot compete for advertising dollars with Google. And small f…

The aspect of small local stores functioning as a social hub really hits hard. The social hub, such as it is now, can be so much larger and less personal that it really does feel like a loss (a negative even). Is the social hub now something like Instagram or a specific forum/subreddit/space for a school or neighborhood? These are really insufficient replacements and people that grew up knowing nothing else likely do…

But if it’s so valuable… why aren’t people willing to pay for it?

Forgoing luxuries like a vacation to support local stores full of people you know and trust, that might charge 20% more for the same product, seems like an obvious thing…

That almost no Americans do in reality.

Re: A Fond Farewell

#142

Post by 1vuio0pswjnm7 »

herodotus wrote: post #138

In the early 1990's, during my days as a Comp. Sci. prof, I was so excited about the emergence of the internet. When I saw the Mosaic browser (a precursor to Netscape and later Firefox) I knew the world had changed for the better. Now I have such mixed feelings. Magazines (like the Farmers Almanac) either go online completely or just disappear. They just cannot compete for advertising dollars with Google. And small f…

Both Google and Amazon are, generally, just middlemen (intermediaries)

There is no way for producers and consumers to "compete" with intermediaries

If the internet must^1 be full of intermediaries to link producers and consumers, then at least there should be competition _amongst intermediaries_

Google and Amazon have no significant competition from other intermediaries

1. It's possible that intermediaries are unnecessary

Re: A Fond Farewell

#143

Post by localhost »

gaoshan wrote: post #139
herodotus wrote: post #138

In the early 1990's, during my days as a Comp. Sci. prof, I was so excited about the emergence of the internet. When I saw the Mosaic browser (a precursor to Netscape and later Firefox) I knew the world had changed for the better. Now I have such mixed feelings. Magazines (like the Farmers Almanac) either go online completely or just disappear. They just cannot compete for advertising dollars with Google. And small f…

The aspect of small local stores functioning as a social hub really hits hard. The social hub, such as it is now, can be so much larger and less personal that it really does feel like a loss (a negative even). Is the social hub now something like Instagram or a specific forum/subreddit/space for a school or neighborhood? These are really insufficient replacements and people that grew up knowing nothing else likely do…

But why do social hubs need to be places of financial transactions?

I was in Delft recently and I really loved their library/community center. Full of music practice rooms, people playing board games on the ground floor, a coffee bar and it was full of people at 8pm. It is open from 9am - 11pm M-F.

You walk or cycle there (free indoor bicycle parking). There is a movie theater across the "street" (no cars).

Re: A Fond Farewell

#144

Post by Imnimo »

According to the "best days" link in the article, November 7th is the best day to cut your hair because the moon phase and zodiac will lead to slower hair growth if you cut it today.

I am amazed this publication made it this far.

Re: A Fond Farewell

#145

Post by _ea1k »

Waterluvian wrote: post #109
conductr wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have to predict the weather for the year in a book that has to go through the publishing and distribution process ahead of time. My local weather news has all the benefits of real time data and weather models yet I think their accuracy rate is just as poor when it comes to producing the 7 day outlook. It’s common to hear a forecast for rain/cold front/etc in 7 day outlook that just never materializes. Also the t…

I didn't study too much meteorology in undergrad, but one thing impressed upon us is that any forecast beyond maybe 3 days is basically guesswork. I think what might be getting observed here is that when forecasting that many days out, the local data becomes so unimportant to the model's outcome that the model is just reflecting historical climate trends. Which kind of makes both the same kind of model. Ie. when fore…

I think you are describing it pretty well, and I've noticed the same thing. The farther into the future the forecast goes, the higher the probability is that it will look like the historical average.

One thing that I've found to help a lot is to go to weather.gov and look at the "forecast discussion". Often it will help to understand what types of uncertainties exist within the forecast.

It isn't unusual to see notes that make it really clear that 24-48 hour variations are expected, or that massive differences will exist based upon hard to predict variables. "Hey we think it will rain heavily as far south as X, but actually it might end up staying north of Y in which case X will stay dry"

It is easy to see how hard it can be even if the forecast itself turns out to be fairly accurate at a high level.

Re: A Fond Farewell

#146

Post by wat10000 »

MichaelZuo wrote: post #141
gaoshan wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The aspect of small local stores functioning as a social hub really hits hard. The social hub, such as it is now, can be so much larger and less personal that it really does feel like a loss (a negative even). Is the social hub now something like Instagram or a specific forum/subreddit/space for a school or neighborhood? These are really insufficient replacements and people that grew up knowing nothing else likely do…

But if it’s so valuable… why aren’t people willing to pay for it? Forgoing luxuries like a vacation to support local stores full of people you know and trust, that might charge 20% more for the same product, seems like an obvious thing… That almost no Americans do in reality.

Because if I do that, I lose my vacation and I don’t gain a local store full of people I know and trust.

Collective action problems aren’t solved by individually performing the action, and therefore the fact that people aren’t doing it doesn’t show they don’t want it.

Re: A Fond Farewell

#147

Post by mistrial9 »

Imnimo wrote: post #144

According to the "best days" link in the article, November 7th is the best day to cut your hair because the moon phase and zodiac will lead to slower hair growth if you cut it today. I am amazed this publication made it this far.

To our loyal patrons, we promise to continue this tradition of trustworthiness and authenticity, of being “useful with a pleasant degree of humor,” while producing reliable, genuine content every year.

https://www.almanac.com/old-farmers-almanac-artificial-intel...

Re: A Fond Farewell

#148

Post by wat10000 »

Imnimo wrote: post #144

According to the "best days" link in the article, November 7th is the best day to cut your hair because the moon phase and zodiac will lead to slower hair growth if you cut it today. I am amazed this publication made it this far.

I have fond memories of poring over it (or maybe it was the other one, they’re pretty similar) and taking it all in as a kid.

Looking at it with an adult’s eyes, it’s absolute twaddle.

But people go for that sort of thing. How much money gets made on astrology?

Re: A Fond Farewell

#149

Post by wat10000 »

conductr wrote: post #77
dannyphantom wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kinda all of the above. It did evolve into a scientific(-adjacent) thing, if that makes sense. My boyfriend’s parents have all of them sitting on a dedicated shelf. Interesting to read through. They definitely leaned into being a cultural artifact. Jokes, anecdotes, stories, how-tos, homeopathic recipes for things like cough syrups, etc. They all look kinda the same so either brand consistency or to keep the nostalgi…

They have to predict the weather for the year in a book that has to go through the publishing and distribution process ahead of time. My local weather news has all the benefits of real time data and weather models yet I think their accuracy rate is just as poor when it comes to producing the 7 day outlook. It’s common to hear a forecast for rain/cold front/etc in 7 day outlook that just never materializes. Also the t…

They don’t have to predict the weather for a year. They choose to do something which cannot be done. Certainly not with any known technique, and probably not even in theory.

If I predict that the weather in my location on November 7, 2076 will be moderately cool and sunny (as it is today), I have a pretty good chance of being correct. I wouldn’t find it impressive, though.

Re: A Fond Farewell

#150

Post by petsfed »

MichaelZuo wrote: post #141
gaoshan wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The aspect of small local stores functioning as a social hub really hits hard. The social hub, such as it is now, can be so much larger and less personal that it really does feel like a loss (a negative even). Is the social hub now something like Instagram or a specific forum/subreddit/space for a school or neighborhood? These are really insufficient replacements and people that grew up knowing nothing else likely do…

But if it’s so valuable… why aren’t people willing to pay for it? Forgoing luxuries like a vacation to support local stores full of people you know and trust, that might charge 20% more for the same product, seems like an obvious thing… That almost no Americans do in reality.

A lot of reasons, but the two big ones are:

1) the American cult of self-reliance. The idea that people will not value something they did not themselves work for, even if its given to them by a close friend or family member, is basically synonymous with "the American dream". "Socialism" is so bad to Americans that they would rather have diabetics die because they can't afford the lifesaving medicine they need, than to give handouts to such people, just for them to develop a "dependency". There's even an entire health-influencer industry built around the idea that all health problems not directly caused by trauma are because the person suffering just isn't trying hard enough to be healthy, and not, you know, because of a social and economic system that's actively corrosive to human health. "You're sick because you're too lazy to avoid trans-fats" basically the gist of RFK Jr's ideology.

2) Americans are so opposed to thinking more than 3 months ahead that all they see with that 20% price increase is the impact it has on them right now. The easy access to instant gratification is steadily eroding our ability to be patient or suffer any hardship. This has been growing for a long time (c.f. fresh fruits and vegetables of all stripes, year round) but has reached a sort of fever pitch with the advent of same-day delivery for a vast array of bits and baubles.

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