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I’m worried that they put co-pilot in Excel

simonwillison.net

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Re: I’m worried that they put co-pilot in Excel

#261
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see where you are coming from but in my head, Brenda isn't real. She represents the typical domain-experts that use Excel imo. They have an understanding of some part of the business and express it while using Excel in a deterministic way: enter a value of X, multiply it by Y and it keeps producing Z forever! You can train AI to be a better domain expert. That's not in question, however with AI, you introduce a dic…

> You can train AI to be a better domain expert. That's not in question. I think that very much is in question.

I have to agree... I have no idea why I wrote that. Silly me. It's a bit of a global statement.

There are, however, definitely domains it can excel: things like entry-level call handlers... I think they're screwed in all honesty!

Edit: clarified some stuff...

Re: I’m worried that they put co-pilot in Excel

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is the luxury of theory. Yes, most situations are terrible compared to what would be if an expert was present to perfect it. Except if there isn’t an expert, and there’s a normal person, how do they know the output is right ?

not sure I get your point?

The point is that in real companies the bad mess already exists. So it is a good argument. Or at least a practical one.

Re: I’m worried that they put co-pilot in Excel

#263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Autopilot in airplanes is a good example to disprove that. Good in most conditions. Not as good as a human. Which is why we still have skilled pilots flying planes, assisted by autopilot. We don’t say “it’s not as good as a human, so stuff it.” We say, “it’s great in most conditions. And humans are trained how to leverage it effectively and trained to fly when it cannot be used.”

The autopilots in aircraft have predictable behaviors based on the data and inputs available to them. This can still be problematic! If sensors are feeding the autopilot bad data, the autopilot may do the wrong thing for a situation. Likewise, if the pilot(s) do not understand the autopilot's behaviors, they may misuse the autopilot, or take actions that interfere with the autopilot's operation. Generative AI has unp…

But now it seems like the argument has shifted.

It started out as, "AI can make more errors than a human. Therefore, it is not useful to humans." Which I disagreed with.

But now it seems like the argument is, "AI is not useful to humans because its output is non-deterministic?" Is that an accurate representation of what you're saying?

Re: I’m worried that they put co-pilot in Excel

#264
post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree - having watched many people use Excel over the years, I'd say people often overestimate their skills. I see three categories of Excel users. First there are the people that are intimidated by it and stay away from any task involving Excel. Second are the people that know a little bit (a few basic formulas) and overestimate their skills because they only compare themselves to the first group. And the third gr…

I have seen lots and lots of different uses for Excel in my line of work: - password database - script to automatically rename jpeg files - game - grocery lists - Book keeping (and try and not get caught for fraud several years, because the monthly spending limit is $5000 and $4999 a month is below that...) - embed/collect lots of Word documents - coloring book - Minecraft processes - Resume database - ID scans

I've seen it used for laser testing. Not tracking test results. Testing lasers.

Re: I’m worried that they put co-pilot in Excel

#265
post #174
post #46

That mirrors my experience as well. LLMs get instantly confused in real world scenarios in Excel and confidently hallucinate millions in errors If you look at the demos for these it’s always something that is clean and abundantly available in training data. Like an income statement. Or a textbook example DCF. Or my personal fav „here is some data show me insights“. Real world excel use looks nothing like that. I’m ge…

As somebody with non-existent experience with Excel, I could totally see myself getting a lot of value out of LLMs, if nothing else then simply for telling me what's possible, what functions and patterns exist at all etc.

Yeah definitely has some value in that sense. That in itself isn't enough to make a dent in the work though.

Think of it this way - an IDE can tell you what functions an object has or autocomplete something is useful to a beginner & learning. But that's not what puts food on the programmers table - writing code that solves real problems does.

Same in excel business use cases - the numbers and formulas don't matter directly - their meaning in a business context does. And that connection can be very tenuous. With code the compiler is the ultimate arbiter - it has to make sense on that level. Excel files it's all freestyle - it could be anything from your grandmas shopping list to a model that runs half a bank.

Re: I’m worried that they put co-pilot in Excel

#266

Hmmm the Brendas I know look a little different. “There are two Brendas - their job is to make spreadsheets in the Finance department. Well, not quite - they add the months and categories to empty spreadsheets, then they ask the other departments to fill in their sales numbers every month so it can be presented to management. “The two Brendas don’t seem to talk, otherwise they would realize that they’re both asking e…

But then you need someone to maintain/look after that automation, and they'll be more expensive than two Brendas And now if one of the Brendas wants to change their process slightly, add some more info, they can't just do it anymore. They have to have a three way discussion with the other Brenda, the automation guy and maybe a few managers. It will take months. So then its likely better for Brenda to just go back to…

For the record, I wouldn't usually use Brendas as a collective noun like this, it feels a bit wrong, but my aim was to make sense in context of the above comment.

Re: I’m worried that they put co-pilot in Excel

#267

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but notice what you are describing are all negative incentives. When automation produces value for the company, the people automating it should capture a chunk of that value _as a matter of course_. Even if you argue that you can then negotiate better compensation: 1) That is uncertain and delayed reward - and only if other people feel like it, it's not automatic. 2) The reward stops if you get fired or leave, d…

My knee jerk reaction is to disagree, but on second thought, I’m open to hearing the argument. What would that look like in practice?

I don't have a full theory yet, it's something I started thinking about recently.

That being said, it's clear that in the current system, rich people can get richer faster than poor people.

We have a two class system a) workers who get paid per unit of work b) owners who capture any surplus income, who decide hiring/firing/salaries, who can sell the company and whose wealth keeps increasing (assuming the company does well) whether they do any work themselves.

Note: I see very few things which have inherent value - natural resources (plus land?) and human time. Everything else (with monetary value) is built from natural resources using human time.

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If a company starts with 1 guy in a shed, he does 100% of the work, owns 100% of the company and ... it gets muddy here ... gets 100% of the income / decides where 100% of the revenue goes - if it's a grocery shop he can just pocket any surplus, if he's making stuff, he'll probably reinvest into better tooling or to hire more workers.

A year later, he hires 9 workers. Now he does only 10% but still owns 100% of the company.[0]

There's a couple issues here:

- He owns 100% of the future value of the company despite being created only 10% by him. Well, not exactly, he was creating 100% for the first year and 10% from then on.

- He still gets to decide who gets paid what. He has more information when negotiating.

- He can sell the company to whoever and the workers have no say in it. He can pass it on to his children (who performed 0 work there) when he dies.

The solution I'd like to see tested is ownership being automatically and periodically (each month) redistributed according to the amount and skill level of work performed.[1]

So at the end of year 2, the original founder has done 2 man-years of work, while the other 9 people have done 1 man-year of work each. This means the founder owns 2/11ths of the company while everyone else owns 1/11th. This could further be skewed by skill levels. I am sure starting and running a company for a year takes more skill than doing only some tasks. OTOH there are specialized tasks which only very few people can perform and the founder is not one of them.

The skill level involved would be part of the negotiations about compensation.

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This is complex. I am sure somebody is prone to rejecting it based solely on that. But open a wiki page about e.g. bonds[2] and see how many blue words just the initial sentence has and ask yourself whether you could explain all of them (and then transitively all the linked concepts on their wiki pages).

Slavery is very simple but very unfair. Employment is more complex and less unfair. I have a theory that the more fair a system is, the more complex it is because it needs to capture more nuances of the real world.

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[0]: Some people think this is right because owners take all the risk and employees take 0 risk. That is misrepresenting what really happens - sane investors/owners don't risk losing so much they would go homeless/starve if they lose it all. They can also optimize their risk by spreading it across many companies. Meanwhile workers get 100% of their income from one company and drop down to no income if the company goes bankrupt. They can also be fired at any time.

This was argued here: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45731811 in the comment by kristov and the reply by me. I also have other comments there with relevant ideas.

[1]: What happens to monetary compensation? I don't know, I see multiple options:

a) Everybody gets paid monetary wages like today, plus (newly) a part of their reward is the growing share of the company they own. If we allow selling it to anyone, it has high monetary value but then ownership gets diluted to outside investors. If we allow selling it only back to the company, it has value only relative to the decision-making power it gave. If we don't allow selling it, its monetary value only comes from the ability to vote on dividends.

b) Everybody gets paid a portion of the income divided according to their share. This sounds simple but likely wouldn't give enough money to newly joined workers to survive. There could be a floor. (Or, because hard cutoffs suck, a smooth mathematical function from owned percentage to monthly compensation which would have a floor at minimum wage.)

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_(finance)

Re: I’m worried that they put co-pilot in Excel

#268
post #205
post #198

Excel is programming. Spreadsheets have been full of bugs for decades. How is Brenda any different from a developer? Why are people scared when the LLM might affect their dollar calculations, and less bothered when it affects their product?

+100 this. Programmers who work in Excel (and never even dream of calling themselves programmers) are still programmers.

I know couple of them that get paid C-level money too :)

Re: I’m worried that they put co-pilot in Excel

#269
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We disavow AI because people like Brenda are perfect and the machine is error-prone. No, no. We disavow AI because our great leaders inexplicably trust it more than Brenda.

It’s not even greater trust. It’s just passive trust. The thing is, Brenda is her own QA department. Every good Brenda is precisely good because she checks her own work before shipping it. AI does not do this. It doesn’t even fully understand the problem/question sometimes yet provides a smart definitive sounding answer. It’s like the doctor on The Simpson’s, if you can’t tell he’s a quack, you probably would follow…

> Every good Brenda is precisely good because she checks her own work before shipping it. AI does not do this.

A confident statement that's trivial to disprove. I use claude code to build and deploy services on my NAS. I can ask it to spin up a new container on my subdomain and make it available internal only or also available externally. It knows it has access to my Cloudflare API key. It knows I am running rootless podman and my file storage convention. It will create the DNS records for a cloudflared tunnel or just setup DNS on my pihole for internal only resolution. It will check to make sure podman launched the container and it will then try to make an HTTP request to the site to verify that it is up. It will reach for network tools to test both the public and private interfaces. It will check the podman logs for any errors or warnings. If it detects errors, it will attempt to resolve them and is typically successful for the types of services I'm hosting.

Instructions like: "Setup Jellyfin in a container on the NAS and integrate it with the rest of the *arr stack. I'd like it to be available internally and externally on watch..com" have worked extremely well for me. It delivers working and integrated services reliably and does check to see that what it deployed is working all without my explicit prompting.

Re: I’m worried that they put co-pilot in Excel

#270

I find the contrast between two narratives around technology use so fascinating: 1. We advocate automation because people like Brenda are error-prone and machines are perfect. 2. We disavow AI because people like Brenda are perfect and the machine is error-prone. These aren't contradictions because we only advocate for automation in limited contexts: when the task is understandable, the execution is reliable, the pro…

No contradiction here: When we say “machine”, we mean deterministic algorithms and predictable mechanisms. Generative AI is neither of those things (in theory it is deterministic but not for any practical applications). If we order by predictability: Quick Sort > Brenda > Gen AI

Nit: no ML is deterministic in any way. Anything that is Generative AI is ML. This fact is literally built into the algorithms at the mathematical level.
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