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Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

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31–40 of 129 posts

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#31
post #25

I hope this AI craze will crash soon enough. Maybe then various things normalize in price again. And consumers get cheaper products with less limitations.

Best we're getting is probably a stop to the price raises, but no price cuts. Kids will continue to grow up not knowing a $600 flagship GPU or a $1000 gaming PC.

That's exactly how it works. A whole generation is already unaware that you used to be able to buy PC games anonymously, offline, without a rent seeking middleman service.

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#32
post #25

I hope this AI craze will crash soon enough. Maybe then various things normalize in price again. And consumers get cheaper products with less limitations.

Is that really the cause of this price increase? I still don't understand if this price surge is specifically for the US (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45812691) or if it's worldwide, I'm not sure I notice anything here in Southern Europe, so either that means it's lagging and I should load up RAM today, or this is indeed US-specific. But I don't know what's true.

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#33
post #25

I hope this AI craze will crash soon enough. Maybe then various things normalize in price again. And consumers get cheaper products with less limitations.

Best we're getting is probably a stop to the price raises, but no price cuts. Kids will continue to grow up not knowing a $600 flagship GPU or a $1000 gaming PC.

$1000 in 2010 is ~$1500 today — kids won't know these prices because the currency has been debased pretty rapidly in recent years.

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#35
post #24

To be fair, RAM was way too cheap. I got 128GB for a laptop for 300eur. That's ridiculous. Now it's much more reasonable 720 eur (and sold out)

May you please help me out financially then, friend? ;P Willing to work for it, too!

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#36

Manufacturers learned a valuable lesson a few years ago: overproduction leads to lower prices. Samsung was the first to address this issue by scaling back, and other manufacturers soon followed suit (collusion, cough cough). The past couple of years have been extremely profitable for the entire industry, and they’re not about to increase production and risk hurting their profits. I suspect they would rather face shor…

lower prices are ok if they are selling more units, the question is whether the price point * units is Pareto optimal overproduction means unsold units which is very bad, you pay a cost for every unsold unit underproduction means internal processes are strained, customers are angry, but a higher price per a unit... can you increase the price by more than you are underproducing?

If we want to engage with game theory here, I would argue that overproduction is a much safer bet than underproduction from the perspective of Samsung, et. al. Underproduction brings additional caveats that manifest as existential risks. For example, encouraging your customers to move to entirely different technologies or paradigms that completely obviate the need for your product in the first place. If you leave a big, expensive constraint in place for long enough, people will eventually find paths around it.

I think the Nintendo ecosystem has been a pretty good example of where intentional underproduction can backfire. Another example might be that migration to SSD was likely accelerated by (forced) underproduction of spinning disks in 2011. We use SSDs for a lot of things that traditional magnetic media would be better at simply because the supply has been so overpowering for so long.

You can train your customers to stick with you by bathing them in product availability. Overproduction can be a good thing. Inventory can be a good thing. We've allowed a certain management class to terrorize us into believing this stuff is always bad.

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#37
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep, DDR5 prices have nearly doubled in less than 2 months. https://pcpartpicker.com/trends/price/memory/#ram.ddr5.5200....

Are those graphs specifically for the US? When I change the country in the top right, it doesn't seem like the graphs are changing, and considering they're in USD, I'm assuming it's US-only? Is the same doubling happening world-wide or is this US-specific, I guess is my question? Edit: one data point, I last bought 128GB of RAM in March 2024 for ~€536, similar ones right now costs ~€500, but maybe the time range is t…

In the UK I was looking at DDR4-3200 SODIMM last week for some mini-pcs... and decided to pass after looking at the price graphs. It's spiked in the last few weeks.

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#38
post #25

I hope this AI craze will crash soon enough. Maybe then various things normalize in price again. And consumers get cheaper products with less limitations.

Is that really the cause of this price increase? I still don't understand if this price surge is specifically for the US ( https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45812691 ) or if it's worldwide, I'm not sure I notice anything here in Southern Europe, so either that means it's lagging and I should load up RAM today, or this is indeed US-specific. But I don't know what's true.

you should look more carefully, RAM prices are up across Europe, 40% or so

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#39
post #25

I hope this AI craze will crash soon enough. Maybe then various things normalize in price again. And consumers get cheaper products with less limitations.

Best we're getting is probably a stop to the price raises, but no price cuts. Kids will continue to grow up not knowing a $600 flagship GPU or a $1000 gaming PC.

It really is a damn shame, but before AI, it was cryptomining. Desktop GPU prices have been inflated to nonsense levels for gamers, to the point where console vs. PC isnt even really question anymore.

Re: Server DRAM prices surge 50% as AI-induced memory shortage hits hyperscalers

#40
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chip-crunch-how-ai-boom-...

> spot prices of DRAM, used in various applications, nearly tripled in September from a year earlier.. improving profitability of non-HBM chips has helped fuel memory chipmakers' share price rally this year, with Samsung's stock up more than 80%, while SK Hynix and Micron shares have soared 170% and 140% respectively... industry is going through a classic shortage that usually lasts a year or two, and TechInsights is forecasting a chip industry downturn in 2027.

Micron has US memory semiconductor fab capacity coming online in 2027 through 2040s, based on $150B new construction.

Are some HBM chips idle due to lack of electrical power? https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-has-ai-...

> Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella has said the company has AI GPUs sitting idle because it doesn’t have enough power to install them.

If the PC supply chain will be impacted by memory shortages until 2027, could Windows 10 security support be extended for 24 months to extend the life of millions of business PCs that cannot run Windows 11?

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