41–50 of 192 posts
Until AI becomes physically embodied, that would mean all high-mix, low-volume physical labor is likely going to become a lot more valuable in the mid-term.
That's a lot of economic theorizing, but to me, it doesn't seem to be substantiated all that well. You can just as well argue that labor is getting more expensive in the West because of two non-market pressures. First, we have a multitude of government programs that seek to eliminate extreme poverty, so there are fewer people who are desperate to take any job for any money. Second, you have consumer protection polici…
> You can just as well argue that labor is getting more expensive in the West because of two non-market pressures. First, we have a multitude of government programs that seek to eliminate extreme poverty, so there are fewer people who are desperate to take any job for any money. Second, you have consumer protection policies that make it genuinely expensive to, say, be a HVAC repairman. Educational requirements, permi…
It can be true that consumer protection laws raise the price floor for certain goods and services without "and therefore consumer protection laws are bad".
I'm not sure why everyone picks on radiology as the 'obvious' field that will get automated. So far it has been the opposite: > In 2025, American diagnostic radiology residency programs offered a record 1,208 positions across all radiology specialties, a four percent increase from 2024, and the field’s vacancy rates are at all-time highs. In 2025, radiology was the second-highest-paid medical specialty in the country…
No AI replacement is going to be doing that anytime soon.
There is a simpler explanation - HVAC jobs are directly influenced by the push to covert everything to heat-pumps. And good heat-pumps are expensive . So when you install a $15K to $25K, installation fee also goes up. I am surprised Solar isn't up there. Panels are cheap, install is what we pay for 10 years+
Good mini splits aren't expensive. They're expensive because HVAC installers are fleecing US consumers. A majority of mini splits are made in China and are inexpensive and reliable because they're so pervasive in Asia. Most are rebadged Midea or Gree. You can get a decent mini split for <1.5K and install it yourself for $200 in tools.
If the AC catches fire because your electrician skills are bad, what happens? I guess you can rent a ladder if you need one, but they're at least $200 if your split is on the second floor and ladders can be deceptively tricky, and load ratings must be considered. Condensation can kill you and be an extreme cost with mold. Your first mini split is going to take a real long time to install, I promise, assuming you size it right. There is a non trivial risk to life and limb.
This is one of those "Reality has a surprising amount of detail" things.
Just had our minisplit develop a leak after 7 years. The shop recommended replacing it, as just the refrigerant is half the price of a new one if most has to be replaced, due to environmental taxes. Basically a repair is guaranteed to be at least 50% of new price of NOK 23k ($2.3k) installed and can quickly approach 80+% if the guy has to spend time on it. That made me wonder how on earth they make money on selling t…
23k seems like a lot, especially so if the leak is somewhere other than a hidden part of the line. Equipment cost is likely only a couple of k, and labour to replace without running new lines is maybe a few hours. Please get a second opinion, especially if you can find a non-shop to give you one.
I am inclined to agree. The rear 2½T unit in our rental blew a line last year. Two companies quoted my landlord $10k for a new 2½T condenser and air handler (1 was another renter of his). Even that seemed high to me but I could be out of date
In the end, I had a friend come out and look it over. Leak was near the compressor and he charged well under $1k for the fix, mostly for refrigerant.
There is a simpler explanation - HVAC jobs are directly influenced by the push to covert everything to heat-pumps. And good heat-pumps are expensive . So when you install a $15K to $25K, installation fee also goes up. I am surprised Solar isn't up there. Panels are cheap, install is what we pay for 10 years+
Good mini splits aren't expensive. They're expensive because HVAC installers are fleecing US consumers. A majority of mini splits are made in China and are inexpensive and reliable because they're so pervasive in Asia. Most are rebadged Midea or Gree. You can get a decent mini split for <1.5K and install it yourself for $200 in tools.
Getting a similar system installed would have been north of $10,000, and before anyone says "well, that would be a licenced HVAC installer", no it wouldn't - it would be a barely-trained person who is simply "supervised" by a licenced HVAC technician.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
23k seems like a lot, especially so if the leak is somewhere other than a hidden part of the line. Equipment cost is likely only a couple of k, and labour to replace without running new lines is maybe a few hours. Please get a second opinion, especially if you can find a non-shop to give you one.
> 23k seems like a lot, That is because it's wrong. Sorry, just woke up. I'm in Norway, and it's 23k NOK, or $2300. The shop said filling my system back up with refrigerant if it was empty would be around $1.3k, and based on what I've heard I don't think that's off by much.
23k didn’t sound too far off what an American installer would try charge for a new system in a high cost of living area, so this wasn’t too unbelievable.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Good mini splits aren't expensive. They're expensive because HVAC installers are fleecing US consumers. A majority of mini splits are made in China and are inexpensive and reliable because they're so pervasive in Asia. Most are rebadged Midea or Gree. You can get a decent mini split for <1.5K and install it yourself for $200 in tools.
It is expensive, but I think you're underestimating the costs. If the AC catches fire because your electrician skills are bad, what happens? I guess you can rent a ladder if you need one, but they're at least $200 if your split is on the second floor and ladders can be deceptively tricky, and load ratings must be considered. Condensation can kill you and be an extreme cost with mold. Your first mini split is going to…
The skill involved is that of tightening screws on screw terminals.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It's that rich people are the only thing the trades are catering to now. This is my gut feeling too. I've known so many rich people who just accept whatever number a tradesperson quotes. There is no way that hasn't had a mass effect
I'm not rich (or at least, don't feel rich with the enormous cost increases on everything combined with no promotions for 3 years) -- but how do you negotiate with a tradesperson exactly? All of the major trade companies around where I live (HVAC, plumbing, electrical etc.) in the US have rates that they quote before the person will even show up. As a new homeowner who didn't grow up in the US, that's all I've ever d…
The easiest way to find a good tradesman is to ask another tradesman. There is an HVAC person in my local area who will come out and do most jobs (such as, for example, moving an AC) for about $500. A PE rollup firm would quote $10k for such jobs.
I can build a house 4x faster today than my father could back in the day, or alternatively with 4x less labor, and yet he could buy a house, 2 cars, and support 3 kids on his single wage. Meanwhile I struggle to do more than just survive in my little shack house built from scrap on an empty plot doing the same thing.
The only jobs that earn me a decent wage is for corporations or for people near or in the top 1% of wage earners.
If the average person made more money I would have more work and more money. But as it is a lot of residential work would be of negative value to me at the prices people can afford, and with less work to do and farther and farther travel distances for it my prices must keep rising to stay solvent.