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I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

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Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#21

Post by [deleted] »

lm28469 wrote: post #19
9rx wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the end of the day, "AI" is just another programming language, albeit one that is much more accessible to the layman. When using AI, you become a software engineer. So it stands to reason that software engineering jobs are strong. But what about pay? Elevator operator jobs have never been more prevalent, but increased accessibility to the layman pushed the price to zero.

> When using AI, you become a software engineer. When using a pen you become a poet ? lol Most people who code aren't software engineers, you certainly can't extend the definition to every AI users

[deleted]

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#22

Post by the_arun »

svnt wrote: post #8

Completely absent is quantity of jobs. If e.g. ml engineer job postings go +40% from 200 to 280 and writer job postings go -50% (over two years) from 20000 to 10000, then we have a better idea of the impact. Without those data this report isn’t really quantifying impact on “180M jobs.”

Also decline in Security engineer by 0.35% doesn't make sense by conventional wisdom. Shouldn't it be increasing due to increased demand for security in all ai integrations?

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#23

Post by raesene9 »

the_arun wrote: post #22
svnt wrote: post #8

Completely absent is quantity of jobs. If e.g. ml engineer job postings go +40% from 200 to 280 and writer job postings go -50% (over two years) from 20000 to 10000, then we have a better idea of the impact. Without those data this report isn’t really quantifying impact on “180M jobs.”

Also decline in Security engineer by 0.35% doesn't make sense by conventional wisdom. Shouldn't it be increasing due to increased demand for security in all ai integrations?

I wouldn't be surprised by a drop in security postings. Quite a few companies view security as an "overhead" so the siren call of reducing that overhead by introducing AI is a thing.

Also for a lot of jobs in security it's pretty hard to measure how well it's being done, so if the AI based solutions are worse, that might not show up for a while

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#24

Post by B56b »

smokel wrote: post #10

> First, let’s establish our benchmark: job postings dropped 8% in 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Indeed reported a 7.3% year-over-year decline for US jobs recently, so this was a good sanity check, and told me that my data most likely was comprehensive. Doesn't this also suggest that the job market is in such an unusual state, that any further analysis makes little or no sense?

Why would that be?

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#25

Post by trashb »

I wonder what the numbers look like if you compare pre-pandemic to now. To me it feels like during the pandemic companies found out they can fire a lot of people without a lot of backlash as long as they have a weak excuse. I feel like AI taking over jobs is such an excuse, especially considering creative jobs and the layers that are supposedly being replaced by AI in the article they call it "Creative roles that “execute” ".

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#26

Post by baq »

saghm wrote: post #12
kode95 wrote: post #2

I found this interesting: "Still, despite all the hype about how AI coding tools will replace software engineers, software engineering is still one of the most secure jobs you can have today, relative to most other white-collar jobs."

It's funny, almost every conversation I have about the fact that I work as a software engineer with new people I meet nowadays seems to include them asking if I'm worried about AI stealing my job. Maybe it's something that people ask everyone nowadays regardless of what industry they work in, but at least as far as I can tell, the type of work I do doesn't seem in any apparent danger of being replaced by AI any time…

as of today that's probably true, but if the labs manage to keep increasing the 50% time horizon (defined by METR as 'the length of tasks (measured by how long they take human professionals) that it can complete autonomously with 50% probability') at the current pace, it might not be for long. Exponentials are hard enough to forecast if you kinda sorta know the parameters, and we don't have that comfort today.

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#27

Post by Sharlin »

the_arun wrote: post #22
svnt wrote: post #8

Completely absent is quantity of jobs. If e.g. ml engineer job postings go +40% from 200 to 280 and writer job postings go -50% (over two years) from 20000 to 10000, then we have a better idea of the impact. Without those data this report isn’t really quantifying impact on “180M jobs.”

Also decline in Security engineer by 0.35% doesn't make sense by conventional wisdom. Shouldn't it be increasing due to increased demand for security in all ai integrations?

The "S" in "AI" famously stands for "security", so no humans needed anymore.

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#28

Post by Tarsul »

the_arun wrote: post #22
svnt wrote: post #8

Completely absent is quantity of jobs. If e.g. ml engineer job postings go +40% from 200 to 280 and writer job postings go -50% (over two years) from 20000 to 10000, then we have a better idea of the impact. Without those data this report isn’t really quantifying impact on “180M jobs.”

Also decline in Security engineer by 0.35% doesn't make sense by conventional wisdom. Shouldn't it be increasing due to increased demand for security in all ai integrations?

if everything goes down 8%, the one that loses only 0,35% is a relative winner.

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#29

Post by jeffbee »

saghm wrote: post #12
kode95 wrote: post #2

I found this interesting: "Still, despite all the hype about how AI coding tools will replace software engineers, software engineering is still one of the most secure jobs you can have today, relative to most other white-collar jobs."

It's funny, almost every conversation I have about the fact that I work as a software engineer with new people I meet nowadays seems to include them asking if I'm worried about AI stealing my job. Maybe it's something that people ask everyone nowadays regardless of what industry they work in, but at least as far as I can tell, the type of work I do doesn't seem in any apparent danger of being replaced by AI any time…

It's because journalists are still big mad that the internet wrecked the newspaper business, therefore the news constantly reports lies about how the tech industry is collapsing. The more news you watch and the less personal contact you have with the industry, the more likely you are to believe that techies are jumping out of office windows in despair (hi, Mom).

Re: I analyzed 180M jobs to see what jobs AI is replacing today

#30

Post by zingababba »

raesene9 wrote: post #23
the_arun wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also decline in Security engineer by 0.35% doesn't make sense by conventional wisdom. Shouldn't it be increasing due to increased demand for security in all ai integrations?

I wouldn't be surprised by a drop in security postings. Quite a few companies view security as an "overhead" so the siren call of reducing that overhead by introducing AI is a thing. Also for a lot of jobs in security it's pretty hard to measure how well it's being done, so if the AI based solutions are worse, that might not show up for a while

People are sleeping on AI in sec, lots of lazy sec engs and architects going to be SoL sooner rather than later.
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