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China has added forest the size of Texas since 1990

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Re: China has added forest the size of Texas since 1990

#651

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Partially, yes! Population is #1 strain on resources. However, the political climate around 1970s was more like population would create large scale food shortages, famines, and without interventions, population would keep on growing forever. We at least now know that population peaks with prosperity, and food is largely a solved problem.

> However, the political climate around 1970s was more like population would create large scale food shortages, famines, and without interventions, population would keep on growing forever. All of those things came to be - and we're on track for food shortages and famines too with the environmental crisis. The latter has the qualifier "without interventions". The interventions just happened (widespread acceptance of…

We are not on track for famines due to lack of food production. It's been solved.

There is more trade then ever people are richer then ever and therefore less likely to have kids. 1 child per family law was a gross violation of human rights that likely did not significantly change the birth rate compared to other countries

Re: China has added forest the size of Texas since 1990

#652
post #501

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I encourage you to revisit what you know about the club of rome and what was actually published in the Limits to Growth paper. We have been disturbingly on track for a lot of the variables that were of interest back then in the “business as usual” model. People tend to dismiss anything and everything around resource constraint thinking by doing the quick Ehrlich quip, and never really dig deeper into where people lik…

What's fascinating is the the Rat Utopia[0] experiment in overpopulation from the late 60's that Dr. John Calhoun ran. As a result, more than fifty years ago, on tape, Dr. John Calhoun made some eerily accurate[1] extrapolations of where human population is going to be now, and how our TFR (total fertility rate) would collapse (which they basically are, particularly since Millennial & Gen Z generations). [0] https://…

Since nobody pointed that out yet: rat utopia results are questioned now, based not only on a fact that the enclosed space where rats resided were sitting in direct spotlight, but also on a replicability issue. An experiment with results that couldn't be replicated should be dismissed.

It's entirely possible that the mice in this experiment were overheated, and dominant males didn't fight to "stay in solitude" but rather to be out of direct sunlight.

That's to say, if the cause for such mouseslaughter really was in the temperature, climate change could make original experiment relevant again.

Re: China has added forest the size of Texas since 1990

#653

I don’t know how it is in other countries, but nearly thirty years ago when I was in elementary school, a Chinese propaganda slogan stuck with me: “If you want to get rich, build roads first; have fewer children, plant more trees.” Every part of that slogan has been put into action, continuously, for decades. Although low birth rates have now become a problem, back then it seemed like a solution. Xi Jinping may be a…

>If you want to get rich, build roads first; have fewer children, plant more trees

That's funny, because the supposedly widely repeated quote that I heard in the past that stuck with me is the exact opposite message on demographics:

"We have a saying in China to describe this situation –“Wei Fu Xian Lao” that we will get old before we get rich."

Re: China has added forest the size of Texas since 1990

#655
post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a wild comment. It claims free speech is being taken away, then gets upset people use it (Fox News). Then it celebrates a law that actually curtails free speech.

>Then it celebrates a law that actually curtails free speech. Yes. There are already laws that curtail free speech - i.e yelling fire in a crowded theater as the popular example. Its not hard to extend this to the act of lying about information on air. The optimal solution is that the government should have the power to enforce a ban on certain individuals on social media, which should be done through a court procedu…

Yelling fire in a crowded theatre actually isn’t illegal.

And your idea of court ordered ban on speech? What is a good example? That Covid absolutely 100% didn’t originate from a lab in China? How about the fact that Covid vaccines stop transmission of the virus?

Both of those were actually banned on major social media sites, then turned out to be true.

So what you’re suggesting is banning speech that isn’t untrue. Just inconvenient to those in power.

Sounds horrible.

Re: China has added forest the size of Texas since 1990

#656
post #649

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I encourage you to revisit what you know about the club of rome and what was actually published in the Limits to Growth paper. We have been disturbingly on track for a lot of the variables that were of interest back then in the “business as usual” model. People tend to dismiss anything and everything around resource constraint thinking by doing the quick Ehrlich quip, and never really dig deeper into where people lik…

Why would we ever want to revisit people like Erlich and the Club of wrong who were famously extremely off in their predictions? And when some of the writings contributed to forced The claims that theyll be proven right /on track any day now decades after their predictions failed is hard to take seriously. It's not the business as usual people who made sure that their predictions fail its people working to either imp…

The conflation of Ehrlich with the LtG team is an extremely dead horse that people should stop beating. The Population Bomb (Ehrlich's 1968 book) was an entirely separate production, with separate teams, separate conclusions, and separate levels of academic rigor.

Furthermore, Ehrlich's PR stunt with Julian Simon of a bet during the peak of a commodity cycle was neither epistemologically sound nor a proof of absolutely anything other than markets do what markets do.

I challenge people who reach for the Ehrlich card whenever these growth conversations come up to reflect on what they're acting on and to recognize that the road of thought on LtG is dark and overwhelming. In fact, it ends at a destination that implies deep unflattering things about our fundamental capabilities as humans and role on this earth. It is natural, and human, to meet this with reactive fear. Keep this in mind as you read what follows.

I mention revisiting Limits to Growth because if you read the introduction[1] you would notice that they state their conclusions as follows:

1. If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.

2. It is possible to alter these growth trends and to establish a condition of ecological and economic stability that is sustain able far into the future. The state of global equilibrium could be designed so that the basic material needs of each person on earth are satisfied and each person has an equal opportunity to realize his individual human potential.

3. If the world's people decide to strive for this second outcome rather than the first, the sooner they begin working to attain it, the greater will be their chances of success.

Furthermore, if you look at their 30-year update [2] published in 2002, you can get a few more notable quotes:

"We still see our research as an effort to identify different possible futures. We are not trying to predict the future. We are sketching alternative scenarios for humanity as we move toward 2100." (p. xvii)

and most telling:

"Our most important statements about the likelihood of collapse do not come from blind faith in the curves generated by World3. They result simply from understanding the dynamic patterns of behavior that are produced by three obvious, persistent, and common features of the global system: erodable limits, incessant pursuit of growth, and delays in society’s responses to approaching limits." (p. xviii)

The story Limits To Growth is trying to communicate is still pending and will be until ~2072. Nothing has failed and their nuanced commentary on the complexity of the issue has only aged well.

[1]: https://www.clubofrome.org/publication/the-limits-to-growth/

[2]: https://www.peakoilindia.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/Limi...

Re: China has added forest the size of Texas since 1990

#657

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is horrible and only seems to show that voidUpdate was in fact right. > I think this is necessary Are you trans?

I’m not, but I know quite a few people who are. I’ve seen too many people regret it after surgery. Sometimes I even think the evaluation requirements aren’t strict enough.

According to the NIH, the regret rates for transgender surgeries are somewhere in the region of 1%. Regret rates for knee surgery are somewhere in the region of 10%. The evaluation requirements for knee surgeries should be way higher then, surely, if even 1% is too much?

Re: China has added forest the size of Texas since 1990

#659

India too has been adding more green cover than ever. Higher CO2 in atmosphere leads to faster growth of forests. But more important factor is urbanization for India. As people move to cities the need to cut down trees goes down.

India doesn't do it in an organized way though. You'll read about some 70 year old woman/man in an obscure village who's reforested thousands of acres on their own, or resuscitated a lake (e.g. the lake guy in Bengaluru). But there's little effort to harness their knowledge in a systematic way, add knowledge from others into the knowledge bank, do peer review, and then systematically dispense the knowledge in the for…

Do not get influenced by the English media that loves the stories of anecdotal heroes. On one hand nothing in India is done in an organized way. But the forestation and wildlife management is done relatively better than other things.

Environmentalists and bureaucrats are epitome of evil in India. Where I lived in India, the forest officials themselves hunted the wild game and gifted it to environmentalists and vice versa. Need exotic meat to eat ? The forest officer or the local wildlife activist is the guy who can make it happen. Want to eat Olive Ridley Turtle eggs ? The officer incharge of their conservation can sell it to you.

India's forests, rivers, beaches have been inhabited by their native people for thousands of years. Over years they did figure out what works and what does not. For example ban on fishing during breeding season was a traditional system. Not hunting in "God's forest" was essentially a wildlife preserve. Religion, way of life and sustainability was part of the society in an organic way. Need to build a checkdam seasonally ? we had a local process for that. The dam was built on new moon day of X month and taken down with the first rain etc.

I am not romantacizing the poor people's life in India. Their systems had problems. Unscrupulous people took advantage of religious beliefs, some systems were based on exploitation etc. etc. But with growth in population and urbanization required a seamless transition of these traditional systems into governance structures of local bodies.

That did not happen because of Indian Government. They adopted the British I*S system and airdropped young and corrupt idiots as the overlords of the areas. Activists who wrote papers in "peer reviewed" journals then wrote reports on how these babus gotta civilize the villagers and put in new system in place.

Once you ban hunting entirely, the hunters go back to their life and poachers take over. Hunters understand concept of wild life preserves. Poachers don't. Hunters now out of business don't have incentive to stop poaching. Before you know it the poachers and babus have formed a nexus to sell game meat.

Same goes for trees. Government banks cutting down trees entirely as if it is murder. Entire wood logging industry is killed off under the sheer weight of red tape. Since I come from wood logging family, the red tape meant we could not sell our trees profitably anymore. I had to look for altnerative occupation for myself and sell the land to wood mafia who now use the land for a "pretend forest" while they actually steal wood from national parks and public lands.

Re: China has added forest the size of Texas since 1990

#660

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you personally know that or just from feelings? Because I know of several organisations doing this and are organising projects state-wide (they focused in Bihar and surroundings).

I would love for you to point me in the direction of the knowledge-bases (peer-reviewed ones) that these organizations have produced. If you can also point me in the direction of the kits they've produced, that would be extra sweet. If you don't, readers of this comment are going to assume there aren't any, and you're just doing an ego-defense of Indian "capability".

A real tree grown from scratch is a real proof of real work while peer review is nothing but an example of otherwise unemployable person wasting their productive life on wordcelling for fake prestige.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. If you seek evidence you must put good faith efforts in finding the evidence or evidence of absence before asking others to waste time nullifying your claims for which you have produced no evidence.

> India State of Forest Reports (ISFR)

Published every 2 years shows strong growth in India's forests. Though their methodology, methods of calculation have been questions the general trend of forestation is not questioned by anyone.

Indian government has had many programs for forestation. I am not familiar with all regions but I am specifically aware of western Ghats in India. These very ghats were once nearly destroyed by "experts" writing in "peer reviewed" journals who introduced non-native fast growth trees in the region as replacement for native trees. These trees such as Acacia etc. were very detrimental for local wildlife and rest of the ecosystem.

While I am skeptical of government initiatives in general, they have worked for India's western ghats pretty well mostly due to urbanization. These initiatives pay local communities and farmers to grow and plant trees. A lot of scams happen and money gets stolen. Survival rate of trees remains at 30% instead of expected 60%. Trees planted are often of only 3-4 varieties and sometimes non-native but all things considered it works out positively.

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