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Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia

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Re: Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia

#101

Post by vel0city »

dtagames wrote: post #99
adastra22 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI, while undeniably powerful and transformative, is in the midst of the biggest, most insane tech bubble we have ever seen. And nearly all of that money is ending up, directly or indirectly, in GPU data centers. And NVIDIA is the largest cost (profit maker) there. When that investment firehouse gets turned off, the AI providers will stop building new data centers. Likely for some years. That revenue stream for NVIDI…

Demand for chips has only increased since their invention and never gone down, much less "to zero." Chips are a critical part of the tech business for the foreseeable future, regardless of what happens with AI or any other use case for them. They're raw material for computing, and computing use only goes up.

Demand for networking equipment has only increased since their invention and never gone down, much less "to zero".

I'm sure that same phrase was echoed at Nortel and more offices in the 90s.

It's all hot stuff until you have a few billion dollars worth of inventory manufactured that you can barely give away for a million dollars one day. Sure it's not zero, but you're still pretty fucked in the end.

Re: Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia

#102

Post by kumarvvr »

nrmitchi wrote: post #75

Nvidia seems to be operating more like a sovereign wealth fund than a traditional business. They have a very-in-demand product, that is not likely to last forever, and is getting their fingers in as many pies as possible with the money and influence while they have it.

As it seems now, they are into producing silicon that does massive parallel calculations, and variants on it thereof.

To me, that seems to be a requirement for the computing industry for a long time.

And, they seemed to have amassed enough capital to comfortably pivot to the next great thing that requires similar calculations.

I think this is their super power.

The next logical step would be to get into CPUs, to become a fully integrated computing solutions provider.

Re: Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia

#104

Post by super256 »

kumarvvr wrote: post #102
nrmitchi wrote: post #75

Nvidia seems to be operating more like a sovereign wealth fund than a traditional business. They have a very-in-demand product, that is not likely to last forever, and is getting their fingers in as many pies as possible with the money and influence while they have it.

As it seems now, they are into producing silicon that does massive parallel calculations, and variants on it thereof. To me, that seems to be a requirement for the computing industry for a long time. And, they seemed to have amassed enough capital to comfortably pivot to the next great thing that requires similar calculations. I think this is their super power. The next logical step would be to get into CPUs, to beco…

Nvidia is already doing that under MGX. They also offer their Grace CPUs on that platform.

Re: Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia

#105

Post by adastra22 »

dtagames wrote: post #99
adastra22 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI, while undeniably powerful and transformative, is in the midst of the biggest, most insane tech bubble we have ever seen. And nearly all of that money is ending up, directly or indirectly, in GPU data centers. And NVIDIA is the largest cost (profit maker) there. When that investment firehouse gets turned off, the AI providers will stop building new data centers. Likely for some years. That revenue stream for NVIDI…

Demand for chips has only increased since their invention and never gone down, much less "to zero." Chips are a critical part of the tech business for the foreseeable future, regardless of what happens with AI or any other use case for them. They're raw material for computing, and computing use only goes up.

NVIDIA growth in data center sales the last 4 years: 2022: from $6.7 billion +58.5% to $10.61 billion; 2023: +41.4% to $15.01 billion; 2024: +216.7% to $47.53 billion; 2025: +142.4% to $115.19 billion

NVIDIA isn’t a startup. It isn’t disrupting a market. It is the ESTABLISHMENT. Low double-digit growth numbers for market leader in established industries would be, by itself tremendously remarkable. Apple was 6% last year, for example. That’s doing great.

NVIDIA grew 142% this year and 217% the year before. That’s… that’s f%#£ing unbelievable is what that is.

The entire consumer market for NVIDIA is less than 10% of their data center market. NVIDIA is a ln AI company with a side hustle in computer graphics. Oh and a nontrivial amount of that is researchers and small companies buying consumer chips for non-LLM AI training and inference, so real numbers are even smaller.

“Zero”, while not mathematically accurate, is indistinguishable here. Elimination of most of the data center sales would immediately move market valuations by trillions of dollars.

Re: Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia

#106

Post by adastra22 »

vel0city wrote: post #101
dtagames wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand for chips has only increased since their invention and never gone down, much less "to zero." Chips are a critical part of the tech business for the foreseeable future, regardless of what happens with AI or any other use case for them. They're raw material for computing, and computing use only goes up.

Demand for networking equipment has only increased since their invention and never gone down, much less "to zero". I'm sure that same phrase was echoed at Nortel and more offices in the 90s. It's all hot stuff until you have a few billion dollars worth of inventory manufactured that you can barely give away for a million dollars one day. Sure it's not zero , but you're still pretty fucked in the end.

NVIDIA doesn’t separate their networking revenue, but at time of acquisition mellanox had less than a billion dollars on sales. Less a half a percent of NVIDIA’s current data center sales. That has undoubtedly grown, but I would be surprised if the networking share of their data center business was more than a rounding error. Keep in mind they sell GPUs for $50k, 2-8GPUs per box, and even a state of the art Infiniband card to put in that machine is only a few thousand bucks.

Re: Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia

#107

Post by adastra22 »

chii wrote: post #97
adastra22 wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI, while undeniably powerful and transformative, is in the midst of the biggest, most insane tech bubble we have ever seen. And nearly all of that money is ending up, directly or indirectly, in GPU data centers. And NVIDIA is the largest cost (profit maker) there. When that investment firehouse gets turned off, the AI providers will stop building new data centers. Likely for some years. That revenue stream for NVIDI…

> most insane tech bubble we have ever seen. the current "bubble" hasn't surpassed the dot-com boom yet.

The total aggregate loss of value from top to bottom of the dotcom crash was about $5 trillion. That’s the current market cap of NVIDIA alone, to say nothing of other AI companies. So yeah, it has.

Re: Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia

#108

Post by DSingularity »

adastra22 wrote: post #106
vel0city wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Demand for networking equipment has only increased since their invention and never gone down, much less "to zero". I'm sure that same phrase was echoed at Nortel and more offices in the 90s. It's all hot stuff until you have a few billion dollars worth of inventory manufactured that you can barely give away for a million dollars one day. Sure it's not zero , but you're still pretty fucked in the end.

NVIDIA doesn’t separate their networking revenue, but at time of acquisition mellanox had less than a billion dollars on sales. Less a half a percent of NVIDIA’s current data center sales. That has undoubtedly grown, but I would be surprised if the networking share of their data center business was more than a rounding error. Keep in mind they sell GPUs for $50k, 2-8GPUs per box, and even a state of the art Infiniban…

You are missing his point.

Re: Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia

#109

Post by chemotaxis »

kumarvvr wrote: post #102
nrmitchi wrote: post #75

Nvidia seems to be operating more like a sovereign wealth fund than a traditional business. They have a very-in-demand product, that is not likely to last forever, and is getting their fingers in as many pies as possible with the money and influence while they have it.

As it seems now, they are into producing silicon that does massive parallel calculations, and variants on it thereof. To me, that seems to be a requirement for the computing industry for a long time. And, they seemed to have amassed enough capital to comfortably pivot to the next great thing that requires similar calculations. I think this is their super power. The next logical step would be to get into CPUs, to beco…

> To me, that seems to be a requirement for the computing industry for a long time.

Sure, but they have a market cap of 5 trillion. It's about 10x that of AMD, which also sells similar silicon (and isn't in any distress). It's more than Apple, Google, and Microsoft - and these companies historically found ways to make more money than the vendors they buy chips from.

The problem isn't that Nvidia doesn't have good fundamentals or good products, it's that the market is expecting miracles.

In the case of Nvidia, the funny thing is that their high valuations started not with AI, but with cryptocurrencies. Just never really came down - they coasted from a silly hype cycle to a more substantive one. Ten years ago, NVDA wasn't an interesting stock at all.

Re: Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia

#110

Post by hshdhdhehd »

bazmattaz wrote: post #62
nasmorn wrote: post #54

The stock of NVIDIA can buy the 230 smallest S&P 500 companies. Which are still quite big companies. I recently learned this fact and I think it is pretty wild.

Do you mean their market cap? Sure but that doesn’t equal their profits or cash reserves which are considerably less so NVIDIA couldn’t buy the 230 companies even if I wanted to

They could buy with stock. They can do this limitless times each time an effective merger.

The SP500 could merge into one company, regulation permitting.

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