141–150 of 496 posts
> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?
We don’t even have a general definition that anyone can agree on for AGI.
A Definition of AGI - https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.18212
Earlier quoted context omitted.
They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle
Jesus, we've gone from Eliza and Bayes Spam Filters to being able to hold an "intelligent" conversation with a bot that can write code like: "make me a sandwich" => "ok, making sandwich.py, adding test, keeping track of a todo list, validating tests, etc..." We might not _quite_ be at the era of "I'm sorry I can't let you do that Dave...", but on the spectrum, and from the perspective of a lay-person, we're waaaaay c…
> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?
Most people didn't think we were anywhere close to LLM's five years ago. The capabilities we have now were expected to be a decades away, depending on who you talked to. [EDIT: sorry, I should have said 10 years ago... recent years get too compressed in my head and stuff from 2020 still feels like it was 2 years ago!] So I think a lot of people now don't see what the path is to AGI, but also realize they hadn't seen…
Nobody thought we were anywhere closer to me jumping off the Empire State Building and flying across the globe 5 years ago, but I'm sure I will. Wish me luck as I take that literal leap of faith tomorrow.
> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?
No one credible, no.
Many questioning why Microsoft would agree to this, but to me the concessions they made strike me as minor. > OpenAI remains Microsoft’s frontier model partner and Microsoft continues to have exclusive IP rights and Azure API exclusivity This should be the headline - Microsoft maintains its financial and intellectual stranglehold on OpenAI. And meanwhile, while vaguer, a few of the bullet points are potentially very…
The question "Can we build our stuff on top of Azure OpenAI? What if SamA pulls a marketing stunt tomorrow, declares AGI and cuts Microsoft off?" just became a lot easier. (At least until 2032.)
> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?
Most people didn't think we were anywhere close to LLM's five years ago. The capabilities we have now were expected to be a decades away, depending on who you talked to. [EDIT: sorry, I should have said 10 years ago... recent years get too compressed in my head and stuff from 2020 still feels like it was 2 years ago!] So I think a lot of people now don't see what the path is to AGI, but also realize they hadn't seen…
That's very ambiguous. "Most people" don't know most things. If we're talking about people that have been working in the industry though, my understanding is that the concept of our modern day LLMs aren't magical at all. In fact, the idea has been around for quite a while. The breakthroughs in processing power and networking (data) were the hold up. The result definitely feels magical to "most people" though for sure. Right now we're "iterating" right?
I'm not sure anyone really see's a clear path to AGI if what we're actually talking about is the singularity. There are a lot of unknown unknowns right?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
it's notable that there is no talk about defining what exactly AGI is - or even spelling out the three letter acronym - because that doesn't serve his narative. He wants the general public to equate human intelligence with current OpenAI, not ask what does this mean or how would we know. He's selling another type of hammer that's proving useful in some situations but presenting it as the last universal tool anyone wi…
And because it's become apparent that LLMs aren't converging on what's traditionally been understood as AGI. The promise of AGI is that you could prompt the LLM "Prove that the Riemann Hypothesis is either true or false" and the LLM would generate a valid mathematical proof. However, if you throw it into ChatGPT what you actually get is "Nobody else has solved this proof yet and I can't either." And that's the issue.…
Until LLMs got popular, we would have called that reasoning skills. Not surpassing humans but better than many humans within a small context.
I don't mean that I have a higher opinion about LLM intelligence than you do, but perhaps I have a lower opinion on what human intelligence is. How many do much more than regurgitate, tweak? Science has taken hundreds of years to develop.
The real question is: When do knowledge workers loose their jobs. That is close enough for "AGI" in its consequences for society, Riemann hypothesis or not.
> Microsoft continues to have exclusive IP rights and Azure API exclusivity until Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). That basically means in perpetuity, no? Are there any signs we are anywhere near AGI (or even that transformers would be capable of it)?