Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

openai.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

121–130 of 496 posts

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#121

Post by marcosdumay »

mr_toad wrote: post #75
pinnochio wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's a bit late for that. Also, you have to consider the size of Microsoft relative to its ownership of OpenAI, future dilution, and how Microsoft itself will fare in the future. If, say, Microsoft is on a path towards decreasing relevance/marketshare/profitability, any gains from its stake in OpenAI may be offset by its diminishing fortunes.

> If, say, Microsoft is on a path towards decreasing relevance/marketshare/profitability That’s a big if. I see a lot of people in big enterprises who would never even consider anything other than Microsoft and Azure.

The big question is if we are finally in a moment when big enterprises will be allowed to fail due to the infinite number of bad choices they make.

Because things are going to change soon. What nobody know is what things exactly, and in what direction.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#122

Post by whynotminot »

outside1234 wrote: post #87
philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

No, but OpenAI is going to look for any opportunity to do it so they can end the contract with Microsoft.

Why would you say that when this very contract appears to extend the arrangement almost indefinitely

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#124

Post by ml-anon »

Overpower0416 wrote: post #95
healsdata wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...

So if their erotic bot reaches $100b in profit, they will declare AGI? lol

Wait until they announce that they’ve been powering OnlyFans accounts this whole time.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#125

Post by notepad0x90 »

mr_toad wrote: post #75
pinnochio wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's a bit late for that. Also, you have to consider the size of Microsoft relative to its ownership of OpenAI, future dilution, and how Microsoft itself will fare in the future. If, say, Microsoft is on a path towards decreasing relevance/marketshare/profitability, any gains from its stake in OpenAI may be offset by its diminishing fortunes.

> If, say, Microsoft is on a path towards decreasing relevance/marketshare/profitability That’s a big if. I see a lot of people in big enterprises who would never even consider anything other than Microsoft and Azure.

yeah, this is a take I see by people who work in unix like environments (including macs). If anything Microsoft will grow much bigger. People are consolidating in Azure and away from GCP. easier to manage costs and integrate with their fleet.

Windows workstations and servers are now "joined" to Azure instead, where they used to be joined to domain controller servers. Microsoft will soon enough stop supporting that older domain controller design (soon as in a decade).

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#126

Post by ramses0 »

no_wizard wrote: post #96
philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle

Jesus, we've gone from Eliza and Bayes Spam Filters to being able to hold an "intelligent" conversation with a bot that can write code like: "make me a sandwich" => "ok, making sandwich.py, adding test, keeping track of a todo list, validating tests, etc..."

We might not _quite_ be at the era of "I'm sorry I can't let you do that Dave...", but on the spectrum, and from the perspective of a lay-person, we're waaaaay closer than we've ever been?

I'd counsel you to self-check what goalposts you might have moved in the past few years...

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#127

Post by htrp »

no_wizard wrote: post #96
philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

They’ll devalue the term into something that makes it so. The common conception of it however, no I don’t believe we are anywhere close to it. It’s no different than how they moved the goalpost on the definition of AI at the start of this boom cycle

FSD would like a word

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#128

Post by ml-anon »

onion2k wrote: post #61
healsdata wrote: post #10

I'm not savvy on investment terms, but most of these bullet points seem like a loss for Microsoft. What's the value in investing in a smaller company and then giving up things produced off that investment when the company grows?

I'm not savvy on investment terms, but most of these bullet points seem like a loss for Microsoft. Having a customer locked in to buying $250bn of Azure services is a fairly big benefit.

Or a massive opportunity cost. I’d imagine 250Bn of OAI business is way lower margin than 250Bn of some other random companies that don’t need H200s.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#129

Post by crazygringo »

philipwhiuk wrote: post #79

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

Most people didn't think we were anywhere close to LLM's five years ago. The capabilities we have now were expected to be a decades away, depending on who you talked to. [EDIT: sorry, I should have said 10 years ago... recent years get too compressed in my head and stuff from 2020 still feels like it was 2 years ago!]

So I think a lot of people now don't see what the path is to AGI, but also realize they hadn't seen the path to LLM's, and innovation is coming fast and furious. So the most honest answer seems to be, it's entirely plausible that AGI just depends on another couple conceptual breakthroughs that are imminent... and it's also entirely plausible that AGI will require 20 different conceptual breakthroughs all working together that we'll only figure out decades from now.

True honesty requires acknowledging that we truly have no idea. Progress in AI is happening faster than ever before, but nobody has the slightest idea how much progress is needed to get to AGI.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#130

Post by jtbaker »

no_wizard wrote: post #101
mr_toad wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If, say, Microsoft is on a path towards decreasing relevance/marketshare/profitability That’s a big if. I see a lot of people in big enterprises who would never even consider anything other than Microsoft and Azure.

C# and .NET have a bigger market share than what gets talked about in trendy circles

C#/.NET are nice. Azure/Microsoft Cloud not so nice. Idk, maybe I have some bias due to familiarity, but I find the GCP admin and tools to be so much more intuitive than the Azure (and AWS too, for that matter) counterparts.
Post reply on HN