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The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

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Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#81
> Microsoft continues to have exclusive IP rights and Azure API exclusivity until Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

That basically means in perpetuity, no? Are there any signs we are anywhere near AGI (or even that transformers would be capable of it)?

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#82
post #59
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The API offerings are still only on Azure. It just means OpenAI doesn’t have to buy compute exclusively from Microsoft.

They also say "Non-API products may be served on any cloud provider.". I wonder what products they are thinking about. If I sell you a EC2 image with GPT-5 on it, is that a API? My assumption is that they mean PaaS model hosting (so azure's ai service, bedrock, vertex), but I don't know what other product OpenAI is thinking about selling via a cloud provider unless it's training tooling or something.

Open source models are the current product line that fits the bill.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#84
post #61

I'm not savvy on investment terms, but most of these bullet points seem like a loss for Microsoft. What's the value in investing in a smaller company and then giving up things produced off that investment when the company grows?

I'm not savvy on investment terms, but most of these bullet points seem like a loss for Microsoft. Having a customer locked in to buying $250bn of Azure services is a fairly big benefit.

MSFT had a right to compute exclusivity.

"Microsoft will no longer have a right of first refusal to be OpenAI’s compute provider."

Seems like a loss to me!

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#85
post #61

I'm not savvy on investment terms, but most of these bullet points seem like a loss for Microsoft. What's the value in investing in a smaller company and then giving up things produced off that investment when the company grows?

I'm not savvy on investment terms, but most of these bullet points seem like a loss for Microsoft. Having a customer locked in to buying $250bn of Azure services is a fairly big benefit.

The risk stays somewhat similar. If OpenAI collapses it won't spend those 250B.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#86

> Microsoft holds an investment in OpenAI Group PBC valued at approximately $135 billion, representing roughly 27 percent on an as-converted diluted basis It seems like Microsoft stock is then the most straightforward way to invest in OpenAI pre-IPO. This also confirms the $500 billion valuation making OpenAI the most valuable private startup in the world. Now many of the main AI companies have decent ownership by pu…

Or for the inevitable crash when we discover that OpenAI is a round tripping Enron style disaster.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#87

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. > Microsoft’s IP rights for both models and products are extended through 2032 and now includes models post-AGI, with appropriate safety guardrails. Does anyone really think we are close to AGI? I mean honestly?

No, but OpenAI is going to look for any opportunity to do it so they can end the contract with Microsoft.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#88
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's quite possible that GI and thus AGI does not actually exist. Though now the paper the other day by all those heavy hitters in the industry makes more sense in this context.

>It's quite possible that GI and thus AGI does not actually exist. Aren't we humans supposed to have GI? Maybe you're conflating AGI and ASI.

> Aren't we humans supposed to have GI?

Supposed by humans, who might not be aware of their own limitations.

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#89
post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...

It's all so unfathomably stupid. And it's going to bring down an economy.

Hey, don't forget the climate effects too!

Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership

#90
post #6

> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. I wonder what criteria that panel will use to define/resolve this.

This. This sentence reached off the page and hit me in the face. It only just then became obvious to me that to them it's a question of when, in large part because of the MS deal. Their next big move in the chess game will be to "declare" AGI.

I think some of this is just the typical bluster of company press releases / earnings reports. Can't ever show weakness or the shareholders will leave. Can't ever show doubt or the stock price will drop.

Nevertheless, I've been wondering of late. How will we know when AGI is accomplished? In the books or movies, it's always been handwaved or described in a way that made it seem like it was obvious to all. For example, in The Matrix there's the line "We marveled at our own magnificence as we gave birth to AI." It was a very obvious event that nobody could question in that story. In reality though? I'm starting to think it's just going to be more of a gradual thing, like increasing the resolution of our TVs until you can't tell it's not a window any longer.

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