> Microsoft can now independently pursue AGI alone or in partnership with third parties.
The question is does this reflect an increase or decrease in confidence at OpenAI wrt them achieving AGI?
The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
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Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#12> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. I wonder what criteria that panel will use to define/resolve this.
This. This sentence reached off the page and hit me in the face.
It only just then became obvious to me that to them it's a question of when, in large part because of the MS deal.
Their next big move in the chess game will be to "declare" AGI.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#13> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel.
By the time we get 30% global unemployment and another financial crash along the way in the next decade, only then OpenAI would have already declared "AGI".
Likely with in the 2030 - 2035 timeframe.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#14> Microsoft holds an investment in OpenAI Group PBC valued at approximately $135 billion, representing roughly 27 percent on an as-converted diluted basis
It seems like Microsoft stock is then the most straightforward way to invest in OpenAI pre-IPO.
This also confirms the $500 billion valuation making OpenAI the most valuable private startup in the world.
Now many of the main AI companies have decent ownership by public companies or are already public.
- OpenAI -> Microsoft (27%)
- Anthropic -> Amazon (15-19% est), Alphabet/Google (14%)
Then the chip layer is largely already public: Nvidia. Plus AMD and Broadcom.
Clouds too: Oracle, Alphabet/GCP, Microsoft/Azure, CoreWeave.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#15> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. I wonder what criteria that panel will use to define/resolve this.
> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits.
https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#16So Microsoft went from 49% to now 27%? Open AI with their non-profit and their for-profit and all these investments and deals they are doing. It feels like they are spending more time doing financial trickery than building AI products.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#17>OpenAI has contracted to purchase an incremental $250B of Azure services, and Microsoft will no longer have a right of first refusal to be OpenAI’s compute provider. I have no idea what @sama is doing but he's doing it quite well.
He mayy be out front because he's the best PR face for this, but make no mistake there is massive collusion amongst all the players to inflte this bubble. Across MS, Oracle, AWS, OpenAI, Anthropic, NVidia and more all I see is a pair on conjoined snakes eating their own tail.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#18> Microsoft’s IP rights now exclude OpenAI’s consumer hardware.
While not unexpected, this is exciting and intriguing.
And of course, looking forward to Microsoft's Zune AI.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#19Kind of interesting given they're essentially building their own foundation models vis-à-vis microsoft.ai. Run by a Google Deepmind founder.
Re: The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership
#20> Once AGI is declared by OpenAI, that declaration will now be verified by an independent expert panel. I wonder what criteria that panel will use to define/resolve this.
> The two companies reportedly signed an agreement [in 2023] stating OpenAI has only achieved AGI when it develops AI systems that can generate at least $100 billion in profits. https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/26/microsoft-and-openai-have-...
So what, there just won't be a word for general intelligence anymore, you know, in the philosophical sense?