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Poker Tournament for LLMs

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Re: Poker Tournament for LLMs

#31

Post by michalsustr »

I have PhD in algorithmic game theory and worked on poker.

1) There are currently no algorithms that can compute deterministic equilibrium strategies [0]. Therefore, mixed (randomized) strategies must be used for professional-level play or stronger.

2) In practice, strong play has been achieved with: i) online search and ii) a mechanism to ensure strategy consistency. Without ii) an adaptive opponent can learn to exploit inconsistency weaknesses in a repeated play.

3) LLMs do not have a mechanism for sampling from given probability distributions. E.g. if you ask LLM to sample a random number from 1 to 10, it will likely give you 3 or 7, as those are overrepresented in the training data.

Based on these points, it’s not technically feasible for current LLMs to play poker strongly. This is in contrast with Chess, where there is lots more of training data, there exists a deterministic optimal strategy and you do not need to ensure strategy consistency.

[0] There are deterministic approximations for subgames based on linear programming, but require to be fully loaded in memory, which is infeasible for the whole game.

Re: Poker Tournament for LLMs

#32

Post by mckirk »

michalsustr wrote: post #31

I have PhD in algorithmic game theory and worked on poker. 1) There are currently no algorithms that can compute deterministic equilibrium strategies [0]. Therefore, mixed (randomized) strategies must be used for professional-level play or stronger. 2) In practice, strong play has been achieved with: i) online search and ii) a mechanism to ensure strategy consistency. Without ii) an adaptive opponent can learn to exp…

What would be your intuition as to which 'quality' of the LLMs this tournament then actually measures? Could we still use it as a proxy for a kind of intelligence, since they need to compensate for the fact that they are not really built to do well in a game like poker?

Re: Poker Tournament for LLMs

#33

Post by raverbashing »

prodigycorp wrote: post #4
camillomiller wrote: post #2

As a Texas Hold'em enthusiast, some of the hands are moronic. Just checked one where grok wins with A3s because Gemini folds K10 with an Ace and a King on the board, without Grok betting anything. Gemini just folds instead of checking. It's not even GTO, it's just pure hallucination. Meaning: I wouldn't read anything into the fact that Grok leads. These machines are not made to play games like online poker determinis…

> Gemini folds K10 with an Ace and a King on the board, without Grok betting anything. Gemini just folds instead of checking. It's well known that Gemini has low coding self-esteem. It's hilarious to see it applies to poker as well.

You're absolutely right! /s

Re: Poker Tournament for LLMs

#34

Post by gorn »

camillomiller wrote: post #2

As a Texas Hold'em enthusiast, some of the hands are moronic. Just checked one where grok wins with A3s because Gemini folds K10 with an Ace and a King on the board, without Grok betting anything. Gemini just folds instead of checking. It's not even GTO, it's just pure hallucination. Meaning: I wouldn't read anything into the fact that Grok leads. These machines are not made to play games like online poker determinis…

Reminds me of the poker scene in Peep Show.

Re: Poker Tournament for LLMs

#35

Post by IanCal »

michalsustr wrote: post #31

I have PhD in algorithmic game theory and worked on poker. 1) There are currently no algorithms that can compute deterministic equilibrium strategies [0]. Therefore, mixed (randomized) strategies must be used for professional-level play or stronger. 2) In practice, strong play has been achieved with: i) online search and ii) a mechanism to ensure strategy consistency. Without ii) an adaptive opponent can learn to exp…

How much is needed to get past those? The third one is solvable by giving them a basic tool call, or letting them write some code to run.

Re: Poker Tournament for LLMs

#36

Post by gsinclair »

michalsustr wrote: post #31

I have PhD in algorithmic game theory and worked on poker. 1) There are currently no algorithms that can compute deterministic equilibrium strategies [0]. Therefore, mixed (randomized) strategies must be used for professional-level play or stronger. 2) In practice, strong play has been achieved with: i) online search and ii) a mechanism to ensure strategy consistency. Without ii) an adaptive opponent can learn to exp…

FWIW, I’d bet some coin that current CharGPT would provide a genuine pseudo-random number on request. It now has the ability to recognise when answering the prompt requires a standard algorithm instead of ordinary sentence generation.

I found this out recently when I asked it to generate some anagrams for me. Then I asked how it did it.

Re: Poker Tournament for LLMs

#38

Post by the_injineer »

We (TEN Protocol) did this a few months ago, using blockchain to make the LLMs’ actions publicly visible and TEEs for verifiable randomness in shuffling and other processes. We used a mix of LLMs across five players and ran multiple tournaments over several months. The longest game we observed lasted over 50 hours straight.

Screenshot of the gameplay: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GpywKpDXMAApYap?format=png&name=... Post: https://x.com/0xJba/status/1907870687563534401 Article: https://x.com/0xJba/status/1920764850927468757

If anybody wants to spectate this, let us know we can spin up a fresh tournament.

Re: Poker Tournament for LLMs

#39

Post by noduerme »

michalsustr wrote: post #31

I have PhD in algorithmic game theory and worked on poker. 1) There are currently no algorithms that can compute deterministic equilibrium strategies [0]. Therefore, mixed (randomized) strategies must be used for professional-level play or stronger. 2) In practice, strong play has been achieved with: i) online search and ii) a mechanism to ensure strategy consistency. Without ii) an adaptive opponent can learn to exp…

I ran a casino and wrote a bot framework that, with a user's permission, attempted to clone their betting strategy based on their hand history (mainly how they bet as a ratio to the pot in a similar blind odds situation relative to the aggressiveness of players before and after), and I let the players play against their own bots. It was fun to watch. Oftentimes the players would lose against their bot versions for awhile, but ultimately the bot tended to go on tilt, because it couldn't moderate for aggressive behavior around it.

None of that was deterministic and the hardest part was writing efficient monte carlos that could weight each situation and average out a betting strategy close to that from the player's hand history, but throw in randomness in a band consistent with the player's own randomness in a given situation.

And none of it needed to touch on game theory. If it did, it would've been much better. LLMs would have no hope at conceptualizing any of that.

Re: Poker Tournament for LLMs

#40

Post by animal531 »

michalsustr wrote: post #31

I have PhD in algorithmic game theory and worked on poker. 1) There are currently no algorithms that can compute deterministic equilibrium strategies [0]. Therefore, mixed (randomized) strategies must be used for professional-level play or stronger. 2) In practice, strong play has been achieved with: i) online search and ii) a mechanism to ensure strategy consistency. Without ii) an adaptive opponent can learn to exp…

Do you have more info on deterministic equilibrium strategies for us (total beginners in the field) to learn about?
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