It doesn't seem like the design of this experiment allows AIs to evolve novel strategy over time. I wonder if poker-as-text is similar to maths -- LLMs are unable to reason about the underlying reality.
You mean that they don’t have access to whole opponent behavior? It would be hilaroius to allow table talk and see them trying to bluff and sway each other :D
I think by
> LLMs are unable to reason about the underlying reality
OP means that LLMs hallucinate 100% of the time with different levels of confidence and have no concept of a reality or ground truth.
It doesn't seem like the design of this experiment allows AIs to evolve novel strategy over time. I wonder if poker-as-text is similar to maths -- LLMs are unable to reason about the underlying reality.
You mean that they don’t have access to whole opponent behavior? It would be hilaroius to allow table talk and see them trying to bluff and sway each other :D
Make entire chain of thought visible to each other and see if they can evolve into hiding strategies in their cot
I wonder if these will get better over time. Fun idea and I kind of want to join a table. For now at least, some can't even determine which hand they have: > LLAMA bets $170 on Flop > "We have top pair with Tc4d on a flop of 2s Ts Jh. The board is relatively dry, and we have a decent chance of having the best hand. We're betting $170.00 to build the pot and protect our hand." (That's not top pair)
It would be better if they’re also allowed to trash talk
You mean that they don’t have access to whole opponent behavior? It would be hilaroius to allow table talk and see them trying to bluff and sway each other :D
I think by > LLMs are unable to reason about the underlying reality OP means that LLMs hallucinate 100% of the time with different levels of confidence and have no concept of a reality or ground truth.
Confidence? I think the word you’re looking for is ‘nonsense’
As a Texas Hold'em enthusiast, some of the hands are moronic. Just checked one where grok wins with A3s because Gemini folds K10 with an Ace and a King on the board, without Grok betting anything. Gemini just folds instead of checking. It's not even GTO, it's just pure hallucination. Meaning: I wouldn't read anything into the fact that Grok leads. These machines are not made to play games like online poker determinis…
> These machines are not made to play games like online poker deterministically I thought you're supposed to sample from a distribution of decisions to avoid exploitation?
You're correct that the theoretically optimal play is entirely statistical. Cepheus provides an approximate solution for Heads Up Limit, whereas these LLMs are playing full ring (ie 9 players in the same game, not two) and No Limit (ie you can pick whatever raise size you like within certain bounds instead of a fixed raise sizing) but the ideas are the same, just full ring with no limit is a much more complicated game and the LLMs are much worse at it.
I would love to see a live stream of this but they’re also allowed to talk to each other - bluff, trash talk. That would be a much more interesting test of LLMs and a pretty decent spectator sport.
Cool idea and interesting that Grok is winning and has “bad” stats.
I wonder if Grok is exploiting Minstral and Meta who vpip too much and the don’t c-bet. Seems to win a lot of showdowns and folds to a lot of three bets. Punishes the nits because it’s able to get away from bad hands.
Goes to showdown very little so not showing its hands much - winning smaller pots earlier on.
> These machines are not made to play games like online poker deterministically I thought you're supposed to sample from a distribution of decisions to avoid exploitation?
This invites a game where models have variants with slightly differing system prompts. Don't know if they could actually sample from their own output if instructed, but it would allow for iterations on the system prompt to find the best instructions.
You could give it access to a tool call which returns a sample from U[0, 1], or more elaborate tool calls to monte carlo software that humans use. Harnessing and providing rules of thumb in context is going to help a great deal as we see in IMO agents.
I would love to see a live stream of this but they’re also allowed to talk to each other - bluff, trash talk. That would be a much more interesting test of LLMs and a pretty decent spectator sport.