Harnessing America's heat pump moment • Hacker News Board

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#261

Post by edg5000 » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 6:27 AM UTC

kortilla wrote: post #238

neltnerb wrote: post #234

I've got to throw out an obvious explanation. A third of the country rents. Renters pay the utility bills. Landlords pay for appliance upgrades. Why would the landlord put any effort into upgrading appliances when the cost of not upgrading them is borne by the renters? I've never rented at a place where they didn't want to fix broken equipment with the cheapest possible replacement. And no renter would ever consider…

Then why aren’t they in 2/3 of houses

They are efficient but do not have as high of an energy output as a smaller and cheaper gas furnaice. Apart from that, the water temperature is lower, so you need much larger radiators. Due to the lower energy output, you also need better insulation or a relatively massive heat pump. And the tech was not around 20 years ago (for reasons unknown to me).

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#262

Post by ricardobayes » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 6:29 AM UTC

prasadjoglekar wrote: post #233

danielsju6 wrote: post #148

Maybe I have scar tissue from COVID prices but $20k to install a ductless heat pump vs. a $200 to throw a window A/C in or $700 for a portable heat pump. While I get that these heat pumps are better for the environment and much more efficient it's a last mile issue. The installers charge an arm and a leg and I'm not hurting enough to self install. I'm hoping the window heat pumps that just run off mains will be avail…

This. The quotes I got for a single 2 ton heat pump with a oil backup ranged from $15K to $45K. It's insane and really made me look into the DIY installs. Even if I broke 2 of those it would still be cheaper than one professional one. Solar install is another scam. All those companies want to steer you into a PPA rather than let you buy panels.

Yup, got similar quotes. I'm really not going to pay that for a day's work (2 people). The price difference over installing A/C is staggering and don't know where it comes from.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#263

Post by ricardobayes » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 6:31 AM UTC

galoisscobi wrote: post #3

> we’re waiting on people Right on. I have a heat pump water heater and a heat pump heating system in my HVAC. Getting those installed felt like swimming upstream. Most contractors would try to dissuade me from them. Luckily, I found a contractor who was skilled and knowledgeable about heat pumps and rebates (back when govt thought climate change was real). Very happy with my heat pump tech.

Honestly yeah. Even a certified heat pump engineer would try to persuade me to "just get a gas boiler" when asked for quotes.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#264

Post by Glyptodon » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 6:32 AM UTC

brendoelfrendo wrote: post #80

Glyptodon wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do newer ones somehow not need ducts? Edit: (or so you mean mini splits?)

No, no ductless magic without mini splits. I feel like a lot of people refer to heat pump systems interchangeably with ductless mini splits, so I wanted to clarify that. Maybe that's just an issue with the people I speak with, though.

I'm just much more used to seeing air handler style, particularly for situations that aren't additions.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#265

Post by mikepurvis » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 6:34 AM UTC

chongli wrote: post #169

danielsju6 wrote: post #148

Maybe I have scar tissue from COVID prices but $20k to install a ductless heat pump vs. a $200 to throw a window A/C in or $700 for a portable heat pump. While I get that these heat pumps are better for the environment and much more efficient it's a last mile issue. The installers charge an arm and a leg and I'm not hurting enough to self install. I'm hoping the window heat pumps that just run off mains will be avail…

This is talking about cold-climate heat pumps. A $200 window AC isn't going to heat your house when it's way below freezing outside. $20k USD is insane though. I live in Ontario and we paid $12k CAD (pre-government subsidy) for a modern heat pump with a backup high efficiency furnace for when temperatures dip down to -40 or lower.

Similar for me, also in Ontario. I got a three zone mini split this year that I’m hoping can cover most of the shoulder seasons and keep me from using the gas boiler, though it remains to be seen if that’ll actually pan out; so far the kids have complained that their rooms are a lot less evenly heated when it’s the heat pump running rather than the rads.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#266

Post by thelastgallon » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 6:36 AM UTC

caminante wrote: post #249

glxxyz wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the opposite for me, much bigger ROI on the heatpump than solar. Rural property, 10 years old, ~3,500 sq ft + basement, in Canada where summer can be above 30C (86F) and winter below -30C (-20F). Electricity costs (Canadian) 7.6 ¢/kWh off-peak and 15.8 ¢/kWh on-peak here. I spent C$40K (about US$30k) on a ground source aka 'geothermal' heat pump to replace furnace powered by propane tank. I kept propane for on-d…

I'm jealous of the learning and hobby project. Though, the returns are (edit: "not great") if the figures above INCLUDE net metering revenues. Heatpump = Negative IRR until y8 Solar = Negative IRR until y16 Heatpump + Solar = 0 NPV through y25 | 8% discount rate

I'm jealous of your financial learnings. However, your model is not accurate as it doesn't factor in the 4 degree improvement in comfort and indoor pollution from propane furnaces: Propane furnaces can cause indoor pollution through the release of pollutants like carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide ($NO_{2}$), and benzene, which are byproducts of combustion.

It also doesn't include the negative externalities because of tragedy of commons. Sadly, these kind of flawed 'financial' calculations are widespread.

What is inspiring from the OPs comment is that this is doable in harsh Canadian winters with negligible solar and it breaks even. Most of the world is living in significantly more sunshine, so it should work out a lot better financially for >99% of the population.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#267

Post by silisili » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 6:36 AM UTC

mithr wrote: post #26

Electricity costs are a big factor in this, imo. Rates for my northeast town increased by ~25% in 2024 and are going up by another ~10% this year. It's a hard sell to spend a large amount of up-front money (even after rebates, which decreased this year) to convert to a system that will cost you more than you pay today, and may not work as well in cold weather (every heat pump company I talked to suggested keeping my…

My personal anecdote? Don't.

I have a house where the first floor is served by a gas/ac combo unit, and the second floor with a heat pump.

I literally see no advantage to the heat pump and wish I didn't have it. It takes forever to heat and cool, comparitively, and likes to ice over when it gets too cold in the winter while running 24/7 doing nothing. The emergency heat eventually kicks in and fixes it, so I'm considering just running emergency heat all winter.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#268

Post by danans » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 6:36 AM UTC

kalleboo wrote: post #222

danielsju6 wrote: post #148

Maybe I have scar tissue from COVID prices but $20k to install a ductless heat pump vs. a $200 to throw a window A/C in or $700 for a portable heat pump. While I get that these heat pumps are better for the environment and much more efficient it's a last mile issue. The installers charge an arm and a leg and I'm not hurting enough to self install. I'm hoping the window heat pumps that just run off mains will be avail…

For comparison, I just bought a house here in Japan. Installed 6 minisplit heat pumps across various rooms in the house. All together it cost me 750,000 yen ($5,000) for the hardware and 90,000 yen ($600) for the install.

Japan is where early air-source heat pumps first achieved market success, so it's unsurprising that they are much cheaper to install there, because of the relatively large number of installer options.

In the US, they are struggling to break out of the eco-luxury product niche (where they have been stuck for a long time).

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#269

Post by mikepurvis » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 6:38 AM UTC

chongli wrote: post #212

danielsju6 wrote: post #207

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True. We have natural gas and an existing steam radiator setup though, for the two months a year window heat pumps can't keep up. The upfront investment alone would heat my house for 10-20 years. Honestly, just piling more insulation in the attic and doing an energy audit will probably put the ROI out another 10+ years... I'm hoping the newer window units that are being rolled out to the NYC market will be good enoug…

There’s another alternative: a mini-split. Larger than a window unit, with a refrigerant lines you run yourself but with the actual refrigerant pre-charged inside the unit, so you don’t need to handle it yourself (which usually requires a license). Mini-splits tend to be much cheaper than full installations.

I looked into the precharged DIY option and the lengths just didn’t work out for what I needed in my space. I ended up paying a licensed installer C$12k to put in a three head system (two conventional, one ducted), and then a separate guy $5k to do the ducting for the bedroom level.

It would have been nice to do it as one, but the HVAC firm didn’t want to get their hands dirty with my wacky ducting plan, and the duct guy wasn’t licensed to charge the refrigerant lines.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#270

Post by Ekaros » Sat, Oct 25, 2025, 6:41 AM UTC

glxxyz wrote: post #256

Reason077 wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks pretty good to me over 25 years. Not many safe/guaranteed investments that will reliably return 8% these days. And as utility rates will no doubt rise over time, savings in future years will be greater.

Yes the people selling solar systems all factor in aggressive future electricity increases, it's best to also see how it looks with more conservative rate increases. By my calculation in a reply above with the interest free solar loan it's an 8% return over 14.3 years.

Which to me is funny, when the electricity prices will clearly not rise when there is solar energy production from said panels. But might in other times.