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Harnessing America's heat pump moment

heatpumped.org

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Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#241

Post by jofla_net »

Animats wrote: post #192

Everybody seems to agree that installation costs way too much. There's a few parts to this. Everything has to be carefully sized - power, pipe sizes, unit locations. You need to put a house's thermal profile (how much heat loss, how much air leak, how much thermal mass) along with the regional thermal profile into an engineering calculation which computes what you need. Thermographic inspections are a thing.[1] Usual…

or you could, you know, wing-it, like they do overseas, and I tell you, the world does not end.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#242

Post by JeremyPOsborne »

doctorhandshake wrote: post #102
ssuds wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just wrote a big thread yesterday responding to someone with similar concerns to yours ( https://bsky.app/profile/shreyassudhakar.com/post/3m3w3nra2h... ). Copying it here if it's helpful to other folks. FWIW, the challenges you are facing seem to be grounded in bad design and application, which happens more than it should and really sucks. We need to move the bar much higher for the contractors installing heat pum…

This. I had 12 contractors come out for an estimate. I insisted to each that I would only consider estimates accompanied by a Manual J (aka show your work). I got 4 estimates with a manual J, and one of them the vendor said ‘despite that the math says you need a 4 ton outdoor unit, I’m giving you two,’ and refused to budge on that. I went with a vendor who did the math and sized accordingly and my system works great…

If we’re trying to bring down cost the this is the issue with so many contractors coming out. The cost of sales is about 10-15% of the installation in the US. So thats $2-3k in California per heat pump

Try to get an install for $600 like in Japan when you have to pay $2k to find the customer.

Let’s have a lower cost sales process. Review 12 companies online, pick top 3, ask them to come out.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#243

Post by [deleted] »

mithr wrote: post #26

Electricity costs are a big factor in this, imo. Rates for my northeast town increased by ~25% in 2024 and are going up by another ~10% this year. It's a hard sell to spend a large amount of up-front money (even after rebates, which decreased this year) to convert to a system that will cost you more than you pay today, and may not work as well in cold weather (every heat pump company I talked to suggested keeping my…

[deleted]

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#244

Post by EgregiousCube »

glxxyz wrote: post #177
danielsju6 wrote: post #148

Maybe I have scar tissue from COVID prices but $20k to install a ductless heat pump vs. a $200 to throw a window A/C in or $700 for a portable heat pump. While I get that these heat pumps are better for the environment and much more efficient it's a last mile issue. The installers charge an arm and a leg and I'm not hurting enough to self install. I'm hoping the window heat pumps that just run off mains will be avail…

It's the opposite for me, much bigger ROI on the heatpump than solar. Rural property, 10 years old, ~3,500 sq ft + basement, in Canada where summer can be above 30C (86F) and winter below -30C (-20F). Electricity costs (Canadian) 7.6 ¢/kWh off-peak and 15.8 ¢/kWh on-peak here. I spent C$40K (about US$30k) on a ground source aka 'geothermal' heat pump to replace furnace powered by propane tank. I kept propane for on-d…

Excellent data, thanks! Net metering does look necessary for economics. Have you factored in relative replacement/maintenance costs for the geo pump vs furnace? Also curious how much your investment was discounted thanks to tax subsidies.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#245

Post by ssl-3 »

eldaisfish wrote: post #195
orev wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Heat pumps are just air conditioners in reverse. They use the same amount of electricity whether heating or cooling. While many people have air conditioners, and grids seem to be able to handle them in the summer, an assertion that the grid can’t handle them in the winter is doubtful. Plus there are fewer people using them in the winter (just because fewer are installed). Most people in the NE heat with oil, gas, or…

> They use the same amount of electricity whether heating or cooling This is completely wrong. The amount of power depends on the temperature delta. When cooling, you are typically not cooling your home to 30 degrees Celsius below the outdoor temperature. However, when heating, you are typically heating your home to around 20 degrees above outdoor temperature. Heating consumes more power than cooling.

It is approximately correct as long as the temperature deltas are approximately the same for heating vs cooling.

(And as long as we're dispelling generalizations: Those deltas do vary wildly based on local climate, such that they're impossible to generalize and typify.

For instance: The city of Saint Paul, Minnesota [USA] has a very different climate compared to the city of São Paulo in Brazil, with accordingly-different heating/cooling deltas.

https://weatherspark.com/h/y/10422/2025/Historical-Weather-d...

https://weatherspark.com/h/y/30268/2024/Historical-Weather-d... )

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#246

Post by adwn »

jofla_net wrote: post #239
danielsju6 wrote: post #148

Maybe I have scar tissue from COVID prices but $20k to install a ductless heat pump vs. a $200 to throw a window A/C in or $700 for a portable heat pump. While I get that these heat pumps are better for the environment and much more efficient it's a last mile issue. The installers charge an arm and a leg and I'm not hurting enough to self install. I'm hoping the window heat pumps that just run off mains will be avail…

Its most simply summed up as what I call the tradesman's protection racket. On one side of the coin you have any moron, calling himself a repair man which can and does end in disastrous jobs which can be unsafe. This though has much lower pricing. The flip side is, basically a protection racket where suppliers only sell to you if you have a 'loicense' and the hurdles required to become said VIP are so high, giving yo…

Have you considered that the second path you outlined, "giving your body to a master tradesman to get a piece of paper over many years" (in the figurative sense), is in general a necessary prerequisite to avoid the first path of any moron being allowed to "[call] himself a repair man which can and does end in disastrous jobs"?

> I wish I could live in a world somewhere in the middle […]

This world would just be a mixture of both, with many more semi-skilled tradesmen doing many more half-assed jobs, but not having to train as long.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#247

Post by uhfraid »

ssuds wrote: post #76
blahedo wrote: post #33

People are reluctant to install them because they don't work as well as the good old boilers we'd be replacing. I'm not saying they can't, and I'm not saying that there are zero models out there that work. But in practice, a lot of us that have interacted with heat pumps have the specific experience that they get anemic as the temperature goes down and eventually become unable to do much of anything. I live in the mi…

I just wrote a big thread yesterday responding to someone with similar concerns to yours ( https://bsky.app/profile/shreyassudhakar.com/post/3m3w3nra2h... ). Copying it here if it's helpful to other folks. FWIW, the challenges you are facing seem to be grounded in bad design and application, which happens more than it should and really sucks. We need to move the bar much higher for the contractors installing heat pum…

> “Air doesn’t come out hot” is a common complaint. It’s by design! You don’t need scalding hot air to have a comfortable space.

“It’s a feature, not a bug. Just put on a hoodie and get under the blanket!”

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#248

Post by glxxyz »

EgregiousCube wrote: post #244
glxxyz wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the opposite for me, much bigger ROI on the heatpump than solar. Rural property, 10 years old, ~3,500 sq ft + basement, in Canada where summer can be above 30C (86F) and winter below -30C (-20F). Electricity costs (Canadian) 7.6 ¢/kWh off-peak and 15.8 ¢/kWh on-peak here. I spent C$40K (about US$30k) on a ground source aka 'geothermal' heat pump to replace furnace powered by propane tank. I kept propane for on-d…

Excellent data, thanks! Net metering does look necessary for economics. Have you factored in relative replacement/maintenance costs for the geo pump vs furnace? Also curious how much your investment was discounted thanks to tax subsidies.

There was a C$7k government grant at the time for the heatpump, which roughly matched the tax.

The current Ontario solar grant is weird- it only applies to battery systems without net-metering. They also offered a 10-year interest free loan though so I took that, improves the ROI a little. I think battery systems do make more sense for people who are further sound and using more electricity at the time of year that they are generating it. The solar sales people estimated a 10-year ROI but they had to include a pretty high annual energy cost increase in their calculations (I think 8%/year), I estimated more like 15 years.

I didn't really consider replacement, by all reports the WaterFurnace pump should last 25-30 years and the propane furnace was probably 5 years old so would have lasted about the same. I would think that the WaterFurnace costs a little more to replace, maybe a winter's worth of propane.

Several people told me that ground source heat pumps were too expensive, but years later it still feels like the best investment I've ever made, the gentle heating and cooling is more comfortable too. Anyone with enough space who has to have fuel delivered (propane, oil, etc.) should seriously consider it.

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#249

Post by caminante »

glxxyz wrote: post #177
danielsju6 wrote: post #148

Maybe I have scar tissue from COVID prices but $20k to install a ductless heat pump vs. a $200 to throw a window A/C in or $700 for a portable heat pump. While I get that these heat pumps are better for the environment and much more efficient it's a last mile issue. The installers charge an arm and a leg and I'm not hurting enough to self install. I'm hoping the window heat pumps that just run off mains will be avail…

It's the opposite for me, much bigger ROI on the heatpump than solar. Rural property, 10 years old, ~3,500 sq ft + basement, in Canada where summer can be above 30C (86F) and winter below -30C (-20F). Electricity costs (Canadian) 7.6 ¢/kWh off-peak and 15.8 ¢/kWh on-peak here. I spent C$40K (about US$30k) on a ground source aka 'geothermal' heat pump to replace furnace powered by propane tank. I kept propane for on-d…

I'm jealous of the learning and hobby project.

Though, the returns are (edit: "not great") if the figures above INCLUDE net metering revenues.

    Heatpump = Negative IRR until y8
    Solar = Negative IRR until y16
    Heatpump + Solar = 0 NPV through y25 | 8% discount rate

Re: Harnessing America's heat pump moment

#250

Post by smnrchrds »

Merad wrote: post #214
smnrchrds wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have never had a heat pump, so I wasn't aware of this shortcoming. Could you please explain a bit more how different it is with heat pump compared to furnace?

The heat pump will always produce air that is warmer than the temp in the house, but as the temp outside drops the temp of the air coming out of the vents also drops. So on a very cold day when the house temp is say 70F, the system might only be putting out air that's 75-80F. The air coming out of the vents doesn't really _feel_ warm and it may take an hour or two to raise the temperature in the house when you wake u…

I see. Thanks for the explanation. So the system is slow to come up to the set temperature. Is it good at keeping the temperature though? After the house temp gets to 70, does it consistently stay at 70, or are there shortcomings in this aspect too?
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