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Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

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Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#181
I think electric cars will only really flourish once self driving vehicles become more practical and common. That convergence, along with civilian drones, will expand and improve our options for transport immensely, while also improving efficiency dramatically. It's still a long way to go, but the technologies to make it happen exists today. It's going to be more of an infrastructure change, for example to provide specially marked routes and stopping points for self driving vehicles. The benefits of implementing this is going to take a while for people to realise, but doing so will be comparable or cheaper than current mass transit projects, while offering significantly more flexibility regarding routes and capacity. It will allow people to improve the mobility they have with their own cars now, while improving efficiency so people can live better in and around bigger cities.

For example, instead of bus routes, you can have a car come to pick you up at or near home at a scheduled time, or on demand, to take you to the train station to make a scheduled train on time. When the train arrives in the city you can have a similar car take you to the office. The cars can manage stopping to recharge by itself. The car routes can be updated and optimised based on demand or congestion, new routes can be added easier than bus routes. Software can manage your individual trips so you only have to make decisions based on time and cost. Deliveries can be done with automated cars and flying drones, and this can be adapted much quicker based on demand.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#182
post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, electric cars are never going to be completely practical for people with a daily commute beyond 150 miles or so. But if you're commuting 3 hours a day total, you have bigger issues with your life, to be honest. Move closer to where you commute!

I'd say a 150+ mile daily commute isn't practical :)

Frankly, if I can't get there in less than 1/2 an hour on my bicycle, I don't think I'm interested.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder why they used CGI renders if there's supposed to be actual stations already in operation.

One plausible explanation is photos of the actual stations are filled with lots of background clutter that just doesn't suit the mood of the presentation.

Or the presentation was prepared before the stations were complete.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#184
This is it - the tipping point has finally arrived.

This is a killer combination of rapidly falling prices in solar PV (thank you China/Kyoto protocol/Global warming), meeting the falling prices of Li-ion batteries (thank you astonishingly successful decade of laptops/smartphones/tablets), meets a cyclic economic boom (thank you GFC), meets rising gas prices (thank you OPEC/cheap oil/peak oil), meets anti-carbon incentives (thank you IPCC), meets autonomous cars (thank you Google), meets the development of nuclear fusion (thank you ITER) all combining into one massive tailwind for the one company just on the cusp of absolutely crushing it.

It's a complete clusterfuck of fortune, falling costs, converging secondary technologies and economic forces concentrated in one company protected with monopoly pricing, akin to those found by Apple, Google, YouTube, Intel, Cisco, Microsoft, Facebook and many other tech giants.

TSLA will go 10x within the next 20 years (or get bought out before it - unlikely) as it rides these convergent waves of progress.

Please for the love of capitalism short the crap out of it and don't buy it! I need to get as much of this stock as cheap as possible over the next 2-3 years of savings :D - you'd be doing me a favour!

Full disclosure: I have a significant amount of my net worth in TSLA stock and have done so on and off for 2 years (riding cycles for fun). I used to own AAPL - until relatively recently - whereupon I transferred all holdings to Google/Tesla. I may be exiting Google within the next 6 months due to rapid appreciation.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars are 100 years old and have not improved much, bizarrely http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2010/05/the-status-quo-of-ele...

Electric cars have improved immensely. - Better battery performance and lifespan. - Improved charging time and technology. - Distance cars can travel in a single charge. - Increased torque and horsepower. - Affordability and increases is mass production. And most importantly, increases in the necessary infrastructure to support long-distance travel (exactly the topic at hand) Your comment is very uninformed.

Did you read his link? The point the guy makes is completely correct.

Let's say tomorrow some grad student gets fusion going at a very low price. The best way to use this to power cars would be to use it to create a fuel with a high energy density. If you had 'free energy' you'd extract C02 from the atmosphere and turn it into a hydrocarbon.

For more info look at:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density

and this interview with Nobel Prize winning Physicist Robert Laughlin

http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2010/08/laughlin_on_the.htm...

the key quote is:

"The ones that are technically trained get it right away: hydrocarbons, which we burned today have the greatest energy density possible of all fuels. Things that have carbon in them. Will people fly airplanes? Usually people say yes for the same reasons. Well, how are you going to make the airplanes fly? Battery. Batteries are pretty heavy. Oh--you can't have airplanes unless you have hydrocarbon fuels. You could in theory do it with hydrogen, but it's highly dangerous, noxious fuel. Quantum-mechanically, we know the energy content of those fuels is optimal. There will never be anything that beats them."

A massive breakthrough in energy density for batteries might be possible but it's unlikely. Huge resources have been put into improving batteries and while they have improved it's not been enough to get near the energy density of hydrocarbons.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#186
post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree that his moves (he) are brilliant, we still have to see widespread impact of his companies apart from PR waves. What I like most about his companies is they share a common vision that, at least to us outsiders, gives a notion of futurism combined with altruism and hardcore business. Rare event.

Ehh no. Paypal obviously had and still has a huge impact on global ecommerce. SpaceX launched a rocket into space and landed a contract with Nasa. And Tesla set up a factory line producing fully electric cars for (rich) consumers. Elon Musk is without a doubt one of the greatest entrepreneurs ever.

And the great thing is it feels like he's only getting started.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#187

If these become as popular as they seem like they should, I foresee long lines at the supercharging stations. I'm sure that 1. Tesla have thought of it and 2. They will milk the positive publicity from such an occurrence, but it could still be a PITA for, eg., folks who want to get home from Vegas.

Unlike gas stations, electric charging stations can be trivially distributed anywhere there's a parking lot.

Fast-food chains, Super markets, Offices, Malls, Any parking lot!!

So if they tie up with a dine-in restaurant chain to offer 10 charging spots at every highway restaurant - BOOM - you just got recharge facility with a 3min wait [30m/10] all across the country.

Cost of this compared to setting up a gas station would be minimal - only capital cost of charging station - looks like one-time $15K or so per station.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#188
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you comparing charging stats unironically and saying it's a dealbreaker if it's not just as good as the incumbent in this category? It's really not that terrible to stop for 30 minutes after 3 hours of driving. Long road trips just went from wildly impractical to almost convenient, assuming the chargers are well distributed. You could compare the 0-60 times of the Civic and say it's unacceptable that it takes the…

> Are you comparing charging stats unironically and saying it's a dealbreaker if it's not just as good as the incumbent in this category? Yes, I can guarantee you that the layman doesn't give two shits about electric cars. Until it's cheaper and/or more convenient for him than gas cars, he won't switch. And until laymen switch, you won't get the economies of scale necessary for a vast charging network. > assuming the…

The layman is the long long term goal. This is about slowly pushing down the barriers to entry to increase the net of early adopters, and the more one chips away at these barriers, the closer you are to the whole thing bursting open.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#189

This is it - the tipping point has finally arrived. This is a killer combination of rapidly falling prices in solar PV (thank you China/Kyoto protocol/Global warming), meeting the falling prices of Li-ion batteries (thank you astonishingly successful decade of laptops/smartphones/tablets), meets a cyclic economic boom (thank you GFC), meets rising gas prices (thank you OPEC/cheap oil/peak oil), meets anti-carbon ince…

You are smart enough to know the risks of having a significant fraction of your net worth in one asset, so I'll spare you the lecture there.

Tipping point? No, I don't think so. It's progress, and it's good news, but 30 minutes to recharge is still a LONG time compared to the two minutes a petroleum-fueled vehicle takes, and the best of those can go several multiples of the Teslas range between fuelings.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#190

This is it - the tipping point has finally arrived. This is a killer combination of rapidly falling prices in solar PV (thank you China/Kyoto protocol/Global warming), meeting the falling prices of Li-ion batteries (thank you astonishingly successful decade of laptops/smartphones/tablets), meets a cyclic economic boom (thank you GFC), meets rising gas prices (thank you OPEC/cheap oil/peak oil), meets anti-carbon ince…

How about diversification?
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