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The game theory of how algorithms can drive up prices

quantamagazine.org

11–20 of 146 posts

Re: The game theory of how algorithms can drive up prices

#11
post #5

I mean we are in the age of digital pricing, even on the shelf. Modern price collusion is more apt to happen with A/B testing if prices at locations to see what the local market will bear. I've seen Walmart do this in the past. Items that were not on sale could have significant differences in price, where in general the prices in more affluent areas are higher. We're talking 50 to 75 cents on common items, but sporti…

Labor and land prices in more affluent areas will be higher, so it is expected COGS will be higher.

However, Walmart now displays in store and online for pickup prices on their website. I walked into the Walmart and paid $1.11 more than if I were to have ordered it via the app on my phone or website for pickup.

And Walmart was very upfront about it, and I knowingly paid $1.11 more because their online order and pickup option sometimes makes you wait 20min+ for a Walmart employee to come out and give you what you bought (even after it says your order is ready for pickup).

Re: The game theory of how algorithms can drive up prices

#12
post #5

I mean we are in the age of digital pricing, even on the shelf. Modern price collusion is more apt to happen with A/B testing if prices at locations to see what the local market will bear. I've seen Walmart do this in the past. Items that were not on sale could have significant differences in price, where in general the prices in more affluent areas are higher. We're talking 50 to 75 cents on common items, but sporti…

You can see this happening all the time on Amazon these days if you use a price tracker. Most items are swapping between two prices that are maintained for periods and little peaks just a little bit lower and higher to test response. Then when you take that and look across different countries stores you can see they are running different pricing and running tests globally while the price is being sustained in others.…

Having a single flat price is/was due to labor prices being high enough in the developed world to ignore potential profits from price discrimination.

When my grandparents went to the market in the developing country they immigrated from, they would bargain for everything, and every customer got a different price.

The developed world was rich enough that grocery stores didn’t need to waste time doing this, and could simply price high enough to earn a consistent profit margin and expect consistent sales. They did engage in price discrimination via coupons. Just not individually, until smartphones and apps came along.

Now that automation can handle a lot of the price discrimination, expect more of it, everywhere.

Re: The game theory of how algorithms can drive up prices

#13
post #6

The researcher says > this strange strategy will maximize your profit. “To me, it was a complete surprise” It doesn't seem like such a surprise that algorithms that use information about rivals to optimising profit tend to price high. Consider a small town with two gas stations, you own one. You can set the price (high or low) in the morning and can't change it until the next day. Your goal is to optimise profit for…

> (i.e. in practical terms, there's no way regulators can police what algorithms sellers use - I can't think of exceptions to this, but perhaps there are some special cases)

Regulators can already police the data used as inputs in decision-making in industries like insurance, so policing the algorithms that operate on that data doesn't seem like too much of a reach.

Re: The game theory of how algorithms can drive up prices

#14

> Imagine a town with two widget merchants. Customers prefer cheaper widgets, so the merchants must compete to set the lowest price. I always found this statement to be rather wishful. Individual lowering of prices makes sense if and only if your competitor is capable of saturating the market. Otherwise, demand elasticity becomes very relevant. Sure, your competitor may take the larger share of the market, but then y…

This feels like a variation of prisoners dilemma.

I think what you say is true for well established markets. In growing markets the incentive to capture market share may well override any profit considerations.

Re: The game theory of how algorithms can drive up prices

#16
It's possible algorithms simply drive up prices because price isn't the main factor some people use in deciding what to buy. Algorithms are probably able to learn that raising the price outweighs the decrease in the number of people buying something, and if every algorithm does the same, then prices will continue to rise.

Re: The game theory of how algorithms can drive up prices

#17
post #6

The researcher says > this strange strategy will maximize your profit. “To me, it was a complete surprise” It doesn't seem like such a surprise that algorithms that use information about rivals to optimising profit tend to price high. Consider a small town with two gas stations, you own one. You can set the price (high or low) in the morning and can't change it until the next day. Your goal is to optimise profit for…

> (i.e. in practical terms, there's no way regulators can police what algorithms sellers use - I can't think of exceptions to this, but perhaps there are some special cases) Regulators can already police the data used as inputs in decision-making in industries like insurance, so policing the algorithms that operate on that data doesn't seem like too much of a reach.

> Regulators can already police the data used as inputs in decision-making in industries like insurance

How enforceable is policing which data can be used as inputs though?

It's common for insurance companies to price based on age and sex (e.g. teenage boys will typically pay higher car insurance premiums than similar aged girls). Presumably insurers are not allowed to price on a factor such as race. Unlike collusion, overt use of a variable like 'race' in a pricing model could be detected and enforced via a company whistleblower.

But how would a regulator find/prove algorithmic collusion?

In an extreme case, regulators could ban all use of competitors' data in a sellers' pricing models. But that seems extreme and unproductive since it could stop price wars (downward prices), as well as muting good effects of the 'invisible hand' (higher prices attracting more market entrants and greater investment)

Re: The game theory of how algorithms can drive up prices

#19
post #5

I mean we are in the age of digital pricing, even on the shelf. Modern price collusion is more apt to happen with A/B testing if prices at locations to see what the local market will bear. I've seen Walmart do this in the past. Items that were not on sale could have significant differences in price, where in general the prices in more affluent areas are higher. We're talking 50 to 75 cents on common items, but sporti…

> Modern price collusion is more apt to happen with A/B testing if prices at locations to see what the local market will bear.

One of my first thoughts as well. If you're big enough, you collect so much data and run so many experiments all the time that you know exactly what you'd do if/when there's any competitor on the scene. Not only is there no need to talk to them and make backroom deals, but barely any need to even observe them. You priced like they did/would/could at some point already anyway. At a certain scale and if you already know the price that the market can tolerate.. the most relevant hidden information you want to know is how much cash your competitor has access to. That tells you whether you can win the price-war to sell at a loss for long enough to ruin them, buy them, move on to integrating verticals etc.

Game theory is interesting but also a bad model to the extent that it assumes persistent players with changing strategies, whereas average case in late-stage capitalism is more likely to have players eating players, no new players can enter, players changing rules, etc. As a CS nerd I still like a game theoretical approach better than most econ, but at some point we need to give up on tidy formulas and closed-form answers, and go all in on messy simulations.

Re: The game theory of how algorithms can drive up prices

#20

> Imagine a town with two widget merchants. Customers prefer cheaper widgets, so the merchants must compete to set the lowest price. I always found this statement to be rather wishful. Individual lowering of prices makes sense if and only if your competitor is capable of saturating the market. Otherwise, demand elasticity becomes very relevant. Sure, your competitor may take the larger share of the market, but then y…

It is an intentional oversimplification.

Although a good proxy for the situation in the real world is gas stations, as long as you ignore that gas stations tend not to make much, if any, profit on gas sales.

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