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In particular they count a US civil war as an apocalyptic event… lots of countries and societies have been completely wiped out, though, which must(?) be more apocalyptic.
Maybe the point of the site is just that apocalypses tend to happen unexpectedly?
Doesn't make much sense given that we wouldn't exist to observe a timeline/reality where doomsday has been realized/effectuated.
Doesn't make much sense given that we wouldn't exist to observe a timeline/reality where doomsday has been realized/effectuated.
the two active predictions with the time frames of <5 years by MIT, and How & Strauss still look scary and not impossible
Yeah I was fully expecting this site to be making fun of all the wacko conspiracies about armageddon, such that it would make me feel better. But instead, the "Limit to Growth" summary seems entirely plausible.
Basically, the ultimate, "Nothing ever happens" scoreboard [0]. If any of your acquaintances are ever in doubt of anything ever happening, this will be a handy guide for them to consult. [0]: https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/nothing-ever-happens
1. Events, including big ones like 9/11, don't unfold like in the movies as even direct consequences are often far removed.
2. Pax Americana + Hypernormalization + Cheap Food + Digital Escapism = a drug which convinces its users of neverending stability and order.
Survival bias. I get this is a joke but... There are many societies which have collapsed. We can't know who predicted it because they are dead. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Societal_collapse And of course, this list will no longer exist after societal collapse.
I know this is mostly for fun, but it would be great to see how we are trending on the predications which has more scientific approach to it. ...remember it only takes one to be right!
Do they specify exactly what qualifies as a successful apocalyptic prediction? In particular they count a US civil war as an apocalyptic event… lots of countries and societies have been completely wiped out, though, which must(?) be more apocalyptic. Maybe the point of the site is just that apocalypses tend to happen unexpectedly?
the two active predictions with the time frames of <5 years by MIT, and How & Strauss still look scary and not impossible
I think that they Simon–Ehrlich wager showed how laughable they were but I guess we have to revisit every couple of decades.