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How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

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Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#81

Post by ai-x »

tecleandor wrote: post #74
ai-x wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The jury is still out there if his analysis are level-headed or not. He says things that *some* people want to hear, but that's not level-headed E.g What is the unit cost of serving a Token? It is the cost of electricity + amortized cost of GPU (GPUs would have been Capex, but because of their fast depreciation rate, you can claim they should be Opex). Given this cost structure, every SOTA labs (Google, Anthropic and…

> If he is level-headed, show me an Ed article that is positive about AI Why should those two things go together?

If 1 Billion people voluntarily use a product and many claim to be productive, there must be something good about the product right?

But I guess Ed Zitron has found his audience

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#82

Post by cortesoft »

swyx wrote: post #35
tinyhouse wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No way their share is so high. Where did you get these numbers from?

it's a number 2 years out of date. they invested 8b and ant is now worth 183b.

That doesn't tell us what percentage they own, though. When you invest in a company and the value goes up, your percentage doesn't change (unless there are additional investors)

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#83

Post by dcre »

LetsGetTechnicl wrote: post #65
dcre wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Cherry pick the highest" is misleading. If your revenue is growing 10% a month for a year straight and is not seasonal, picking any other than the most recent month to annualize would make no sense.

Well people like Sam Altman have not been entirely honest and there's a reason they're not sharing their actual revenue numbers. If they could show they were growing 10% every month they would.

They are sharing their actual revenue numbers. That's what ARR is. Take the number and divide it by 12 and that's monthly revenue.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#84

Post by dcre »

LetsGetTechnicl wrote: post #63
infecto wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eh, when you have a company that’s growing, picking the highest and annualizing it is sensible. If we had a mature company with highly seasonal revenue it would be dishonest.

I mean I think there are instances where OpenAI's revenue is seasonal. Lots of students using it during the school year and cancelling it during summer.

The graph that was widely shared to make this claim was from OpenRouter and did not represent ChatGPT usage in any way.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#85

Post by dcre »

LetsGetTechnicl wrote: post #78
infecto wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you missed the forest for the trees. I am sure the student population has some dropoff during summer months but the point is that for businesses that a growing month over month which most of these have since creation, you take the highest number (latest) and annualize it. I am also willing to bet that the student dropoff is not pronounced. I am more thinking of a business that sells beach umbrellas, they make…

Then why aren't AI companies reporting their actual monthly revenues?

They are. That is what ARR is.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#86

Post by JCM9 »

oliwarner wrote: post #71
JCM9 wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, the Amazon AI stuff isn’t great. They don’t really have the right leadership or talent to do anything particularly competitive there.

Why do they need to compete? AI at Amazon should be laser-focussed on two things: selling compute time to AI Wannabees, and up-selling stuff to me in the shop. Everything else is expense.

I agree. Unfortunately AWS leadership is in an all out panic to compete, diverting attention away from core services. I wish they’d just get back to focusing on the foundational stuff!

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#87

Post by dist-epoch »

baggachipz wrote: post #72
ai-x wrote: post #32

Just a reminder, Ed Zitron is neither an AI researcher, nor an Engineer, nor a Financial Analyst, nor an Economist nor an Insider and has ZERO clue in multiple dimensions (technology, investing, unit economics, growth, TAM) to analyze any of this

An 18 hour old account, named suspiciously like an ai model company, trying to discredit a prominent AI skeptic.

Here I am, 2.5 year account discrediting him - the confirmation bias of Zitron is so thick, you need diamond tipped cutters to cut through it.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#88

Post by LetsGetTechnicl »

dcre wrote: post #83
LetsGetTechnicl wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well people like Sam Altman have not been entirely honest and there's a reason they're not sharing their actual revenue numbers. If they could show they were growing 10% every month they would.

They are sharing their actual revenue numbers. That's what ARR is. Take the number and divide it by 12 and that's monthly revenue.

It's literally not ARR is the highest monthly revenue times 12. Dividing it by 12 doesn't get you the actual, on the books monthly revenue numbers.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#89

Post by dist-epoch »

disgruntledphd2 wrote: post #37
ai-x wrote: post #32

Just a reminder, Ed Zitron is neither an AI researcher, nor an Engineer, nor a Financial Analyst, nor an Economist nor an Insider and has ZERO clue in multiple dimensions (technology, investing, unit economics, growth, TAM) to analyze any of this

Correct. And yet, he's provided some of the most level headed takes on the current LLM boom, to the point where FT Alphaville link to his analysis of the economics.

FT Alphaville dissed bitcoin and Tesla for 10 years. Not the greatest track record.

Re: How much Anthropic and Cursor spend on Amazon Web Services

#90

Post by thewebguyd »

jcheng wrote: post #62
thewebguyd wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think anyone is expecting Amazon (or Google or Microsoft for that matter) to be taken out by the AI bubble. I would expect to see OpenAI, Anthropic, and a lot of the little tool wrappers to get taken out though, or at least acquired for pennies on the dollar when it bursts. But like the last one, it's going to be us, the tax payers, that are left holding the bag.

Why taxpayers? Where’s the systemic risk in AI labs getting acquired for cents on the dollar? The taxpayers weren’t holding the bag during the dot com crash, just investors.

During the dot com crash, none of the companies were "too big to fail" This is looking more like 2008 than dotcom, the entire market is being propped up by basically Nvidia. US GOV is likely to bail them out for "national security"
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