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The Pendulum Swings, Again

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Re: The Pendulum Swings, Again

#21

Post by mikecane »

rolux wrote: post #15
MatthewPhillips wrote: post #11

It's an interesting view of history, but without providing your reasoning for why you think the pendulum is about to swing again I have to assume that it is not.

I agree. While I can follow the author's reasoning about the history of computing (particularly his assertion that computing was most democratic in the 1980s), he doesn't reveal the sources for his optimism, apart from stating: If my observations are correct then such a swing is about to happen, and this time we had better get it right. The interesting part, which is missing, would be a list of such observations.

The iPad being seen as a store for Apple. The Kindles being seen as a store for Amazon. The Nook being seen as a store for Barnes & Noble. Those are just three too damned obvious examples that are totally against the grain of the history of computing he -- and I -- lived through. That's part of the pendulum right there.

Also, writers and publishers and musicians not wanting DRM but the stores -- Apple, Amazon, et al -- insisting on it. Another pendulum swing. You wind up not even having total control over your own product.

Fake DRM takedowns to stifle competition (see the Vinted thing with Kickstarter).

The battle over whether GPS tracking does or doesn't require a court order.

All the evidence is out there and I'm surprised any of you need someone else to create such a list.

And, shit, I'm a writer and I now want to learn JavaScript because I think something like Open webOS (or the Mozilla OS) is the future we'll all be running towards for technological self-defense and freedom. The path we're currently on is a noose that can hang all of us.

Re: The Pendulum Swings, Again

#22

Post by bad_user »

The most interesting thing about these recent trends is human nature.

I remember back in year 2000/2001 how everybody was talking about freedom, open-source and the open nature of the Internet. I remember how the closed garden that Microsoft tried to create was frowned upon. Small companies that were picking the Internet as a delivery platform and using open-source/multi-platform technologies were on the forefront of innovation. Of course regular consumers and businesses never cared, but as Paul Graham once said, if you want to see the future trends in computing, you have to look at what hackers are using today.

Then OS X happened, this UNIX-compatible OS that was shiny and cool and all of your UNIX tools were compatible with it and you could run some pretty important proprietary software too, like MS Office or Photoshop. It was more productive for developers than Windows. Compared to Linux it was friendlier to all people. And suddenly Apple was hip again and it slowly captured the hearts of developers.

Then the iPhone happened and people didn't mind that it was a closed garden, because there has never been anything like it. Anything that Apple allowed on this new platform, it was taken as a gift, as it was their platform, so if they wanted to ban an app for "duplicating existing functionality" then openness be damned, it was their product after all. Then the stories about lone developers getting rich on the App Store happened, and people didn't mind being at the behest of Apple, as long as they could have some piece of that awesome pie.

Of course, countless of reasons were given by tech pundits, trying to rationalize the walled garden they've created - it is better for grandmas that have their PCs ridden with viruses, it is better for the protection of our children, it exposes computing to a wider mass (even though computing in this context means mostly consumption), it solves the problem of app marketing for individual developers without huge marketing budgets, etc... there's always some reason for why Apple was right to act the way it did. Even now that they've released a shitty GMaps replacement, some genuinely believe that they had no choice, when for a company like Apple there are always choices available.

Let's not forget for a moment the ultimate argument against this closed garden: if you don't like it, you are free to go somewhere else.

And now Apple started suing left and right, which in my opinion is what companies do when finding themselves in the innovator's dilemma, and is doing so while dropping the ball on new versions of its products. They are still successful and they might produce some more golden eggs in the future, but the innovation frenzy of the iPod era is over and they know it.

And yet people still cheer for them, even though as far as openness is concerned, Apple makes Microsoft look good. And it was only 12 years ago that people hated Microsoft with a passion for being an obstacle to innovation, even though Microsoft never banned any app from running on Windows or restricted its usage only to certain hardware (but surprise, since Apple has been doing it so successfully, Microsoft is going to start doing it with Windows 8 ... hurray for the renewed and totally not evil Microsoft).

I own an Android phone and an iPad. I love my iPad, but it was a gift and I secretly yearn for a Nexus tablet that has the same size + 3G. I also voted with my wallet against apps like Instagram, because I'm primarily an Android user and the aesthetic senses of developers like Marco don't really solve any my problems.

I also remember the day I got my Galaxy S, even though I owned an iPhone 3GS ... I got out of my way to buy one out of frustration because Apple was banning apps for blocking calls and SMS messages from specific phone numbers (but hey, look how it "just works"). And I predict similar frustration levels as use-cases for my iPad are unfolding. Already I'm pretty pissed off about my carrier having the ability to enable/disable the tethering option on my iPad.

If this is the future of computing, then I shudder to think of the consequences.

Re: The Pendulum Swings, Again

#23

Post by RobAley »

mikecane wrote: post #19
RobAley wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The simplest way is through the use of your wallet. Buy "open". E.g. - Need a new desktop? Buy one that doesn't lock down uefi by default, and runs linux compatible hardware - New phone? Buy one with Firefox OS if you can wait that long, or at least go for one with a stock Android install - New book? Buy one from independent publishers/authors who don't support DRM [1] - New app? Don't use a commercial app store, get…

>>>New book? Buy one from independent publishers/authors who don't support DRM [1] You must have forgotten the raging battle between Doctorow and the eBookstores. He and his publisher didn't want DRM, but the stores did . This is part of the point the writer is making about the pendulum swinging.

Indeed. Lets amend that to "publishers/authors/stores". Many authors and/or publishers are letting you buy direct from their own sites as well as at mainstream ebookstores, so there is often that choice. Again, see [1]

Re: The Pendulum Swings, Again

#24

Post by snooblywoobly »

I think the comments on hacker news, in general, need to be a little more tolerant of ambiguity. Just because a statement is not immediately verifiable or is imprecise, it does not mean that it is without worth. The scientific method is a way of verifying our intuition, it is not in and of itself the one true route to all knowledge.

Re: The Pendulum Swings, Again

#25

Post by microtonal »

bad_user wrote: post #22

The most interesting thing about these recent trends is human nature. I remember back in year 2000/2001 how everybody was talking about freedom, open-source and the open nature of the Internet. I remember how the closed garden that Microsoft tried to create was frowned upon. Small companies that were picking the Internet as a delivery platform and using open-source/multi-platform technologies were on the forefront of…

Or summarized: people will argue in favor of and cheer for whatever is trendy that day.

We should not fool ourselves, we live in a bubble - the outside world is mostly boring Windows XP business desktops, Android smartphones, and Nokia featurephones ;).

Re: The Pendulum Swings, Again

#26

Post by __Joker »

The freedom we got was a by product or say side effect of computing pheonemenon rather that we actively sought it. I don't think people en masse would like the freedom right now. Most of the people will be happy with the service vs. privacy-freedom compromise we are getting today. I don't want to belabour the point of Google as service and Apple as service.

Re: The Pendulum Swings, Again

#27

Post by fauigerzigerk »

MatthewPhillips wrote: post #11

It's an interesting view of history, but without providing your reasoning for why you think the pendulum is about to swing again I have to assume that it is not.

I think the reason is that IT is no longer a component that has some limited purpose in various professional and personal aspects of life. IT is quickly becoming the platform for everything else. As such it is going to be regulated just as strictly as banks or utilities.

Re: The Pendulum Swings, Again

#28

Post by bloaf »

a similar thing using hardware had happened in the 80’s with so called ‘dongles’, typically for expensive programs such as CAD software

I can think of at least one software package which still uses physical dongles.

Re: The Pendulum Swings, Again

#29

Post by gbog »

kintamanimatt wrote: post #5

Those who lived through that period and paid attention are probably well aware of the ridiculous notion that information flows should be controlled in order to protect the children or whatever the fig-leaf of the day is. Ask the Iranian and the Chinese people how they like their firewalls. Let’s make sure it ends up on the side of freedom and democracy, and not on the side of DRM and other forms of control and digita…

The kind of freedom we get from open systems is like insurance, you need to pay a bit now to get the benefit later. It is also like saying money, you keep spending to much now because you might need it later.

These rational behaviors can be and are taught, usually from your parents. Saying again and again to your friends and relatives that walled gardens and devices you don't own are bad and wrong, and that a shiny box or a sexy aesthetics are less important, will have some effect in the long term.

It is the same as teaching kids to not trust ads. The result is not guaranteed but you have to do it anyway.

Re: The Pendulum Swings, Again

#30

Post by nessus42 »

bad_user wrote: post #22

The most interesting thing about these recent trends is human nature. I remember back in year 2000/2001 how everybody was talking about freedom, open-source and the open nature of the Internet. I remember how the closed garden that Microsoft tried to create was frowned upon. Small companies that were picking the Internet as a delivery platform and using open-source/multi-platform technologies were on the forefront of…

> And yet people still cheer for them, even though as far as openness is concerned, Apple makes Microsoft look good. And it was only 12 years ago that people hated Microsoft with a passion for being an obstacle to innovation,

The reason why people don't hate Apple the way that they hated Microsoft is for three reasons: (1) Apple actually makes a great product, unlike Microsoft at the time. (2) Apple innovates unlike Microsoft at the time. And (3) Apple is never going to have a monopoly, like Microsoft did.

If there's a monopoly to be had, the future is already written, and it belongs to Android.

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