It has always been "a decade away".
But nothing will make grifters richer than promising it's right around the corner.
Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
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Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#12Are researchers scared to just come out and say it because they'll be labeled as wrong if the extreme tail case happens?
No, it’s because of money and the hype cycle.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#13This seems to be the growing consensus.
There is a very strange totally coincidental correlation where if you are smart and NOT trying to raise money for an AI start-up, you think AGI is far away, and if you are smart and actively raising money for an AI start-up, then AGI is right around the corner. One of those odd coincidences of modern life
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#14And self sustained nuclear fusion is 20 years away, perpetually. On which evidence can he affirm a timeline for AGI when we can barely define intelligence?
I'd argue we've had more progress towards fusion than AGI.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#15And self sustained nuclear fusion is 20 years away, perpetually. On which evidence can he affirm a timeline for AGI when we can barely define intelligence?
And a program that can write, sound and paint like a human was 20 years away perpetually as well, until it wasn't.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#16Whenever someone brings up "AI", I tell them AI is not real AI. Machine learning is a more apt buzzword. And real AI is probably like fusion. Its always 10 years away.
> Whenever someone brings up "AI", I tell them AI is not real AI.
You and also everyone since the beginning of AI. https://quoteinvestigator.com/2024/06/20/not-ai/
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#17I'm betting we'll have either cold fusion or the "year of the linux desktop" (finally) before AGI.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#18Whenever someone brings up "AI", I tell them AI is not real AI. Machine learning is a more apt buzzword. And real AI is probably like fusion. Its always 10 years away.
AI is in the eye of the beholder.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#19And self sustained nuclear fusion is 20 years away, perpetually. On which evidence can he affirm a timeline for AGI when we can barely define intelligence?
I'd argue we've had more progress towards fusion than AGI.
Yet at the same time "towards" does not equate to "nearing". Relative terms for relative statements. Until there's a light at the end of the tunnel, we don't know how far we've got.
Re: Andrej Karpathy – It will take a decade to work through the issues with agents
#20Whenever someone brings up "AI", I tell them AI is not real AI. Machine learning is a more apt buzzword. And real AI is probably like fusion. Its always 10 years away.
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