Live data from Hacker News

Startup = Growth

paulgraham.com

151–160 of 220 posts

Re: Startup = Growth

#151

- Venture Capital pouring millions into untried businesses. - The crazy valuations. - The recent complains of VCs that "Entrepreneurs aren't working on enough big ideas". It all actually makes sense now. It's all in the name of Big Risk = Big Reward style ventures. Especially after defining a "startup" as a company meant to grow rapidly and to massive proportions. Not necessarily a tech business. Not an online store…

I think there is a middle ground. I see that startups have 3 phases:

1. The first phase is figuring our scalable business model. That includes product, customer acquisition, etc. For this phase the best is that you are bootstrapped or having just small investment. At the end of this phase, you should be profitable or your natural/viral growth should be like Facebook in early days.

2. The second phase is growth. For this phase, you might need VC money since during growth profit might not be enough. Or you might decide that this is "lifestyle" business.

3. The third phase is optimization.

Now, the problem with some startups is that they jump onto phase 2 too early. And I have feeling that some SV startups (not all - but one pumped via techrunch and similar) jump to second phase too early. I think it is ok if phase one is extended by 6 months or even one year - that is just a rounding error if you are going to be big. No need to rush.

Re: Startup = Growth

#152

I gotta say, "a company designed to grow fast" is not only more concise, but broader and more on point than Steve Blanks' definition ("an organization formed to search for a repeatable and scalable business model"[1]) An epic essay with tremendous depth. Love the ending: "A startup founder is in effect an economic research scientist. Most don't discover anything that remarkable, but some discover relativity." [1] htt…

While the definition "a company designed to grow fast" makes his point clear, it's not as accurate as Blank's. There are lots of companies "designed to grow fast" that are not at all startups. The "search for a business model" is essential to the definition of a startup.

Which companies designed to grow very fast are not startups?

Re: Startup = Growth

#153
post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need a "slow startup" movement. pg's definition of a startup is just one kind of startup. I like to call it the VC startup. It's an organization whose goal is to succeed big or fail, and fast. This "charter" is driven by the needs of investors, and I get that. It makes perfect sense, and from where pg's sitting, it's the attitude he needs to have to successfully manage his portfolio. But it's not the only way to g…

Perhaps even applaud "slow" in the sense of longterm as a movement. It applies to not only "startups." Joel Spolsky wrote a great article about this in 2009 that also had an active discussion here. http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=920668 http://www.inc.com/magazine/20091101/does-slow-growth-equal-...

Thanks for sharing. The growth part that Joel writes about is very interesting.

One of the most important things about Crossing the Chasm/Inside the Tornado is knowing where your company and your market are in the TALC. At first blush it'd seem like you always have to hurry to grow or else you end up crossing the chasm too late and are relegated to monkey status forever. However, when you mix in some insight from Innovator's Dilemma, you see that you get a new market TALC curve whenever the market's primary feature requirement changes. So for a "mature market" like photography, we are trying to figure out what the next shift in feature needs will be, and hopefully pivot and cross the chasm to catch that wave.

Re: Startup = Growth

#154

- Venture Capital pouring millions into untried businesses. - The crazy valuations. - The recent complains of VCs that "Entrepreneurs aren't working on enough big ideas". It all actually makes sense now. It's all in the name of Big Risk = Big Reward style ventures. Especially after defining a "startup" as a company meant to grow rapidly and to massive proportions. Not necessarily a tech business. Not an online store…

We need a "slow startup" movement. pg's definition of a startup is just one kind of startup. I like to call it the VC startup. It's an organization whose goal is to succeed big or fail, and fast. This "charter" is driven by the needs of investors, and I get that. It makes perfect sense, and from where pg's sitting, it's the attitude he needs to have to successfully manage his portfolio. But it's not the only way to g…

"pg's definition of a startup is just one kind of startup."

Most important is that PG's definition of a startup (or Fred Wilson's or Steve Blanks or pmarcas or Doug McClure's etc.) is to serve a purpose of what is good for them in their business model which is to make money off of people who take chances with their time hoping for a certain outcome.

It's not about what is good for any particular person or for society. Guess what? That's not what business is about either. And YC is a business. It's not on a mission to help the world although that could be a by product of a successful investment.

That's fine as we all tend to do what is in our best interest (in varying degrees of course), but it needs to be recognized and considered when one makes a decision to go down that path of which the person taking the journey is the one who has something to loose (time or impact on family).

Possibly the parent poster is jesting or perhaps they didn't realize this before, but it is quite obvious that what people write is self serving in so many ways. PG is no different.

Notice also that PG didn't exactly do anything "ambitious" with his time. He choose a path of certainty (Harvard and YC was certainly not "bet the ranch" in any way it's an excellent idea that in retrospect anyone can see had an excellent chance of working with a smallish downside). Viaweb was not "ambitious" either. I was around when that was founded and it was fairly obvious small business needed online stores and there were multiple companies doing the same thing.

Before you downvote, this is not in any way to rain on Paul's parade or take away any of his achievements at all. Or to try and make a point that there is anything wrong with what he is saying vs. what he has done.

There are always the "to be sure phrases" sprinkled about. PG does this quite early (in the fourth paragraph) by stating "because most startups fail." which of course is slipped in there the same way financial firms say "past performance is no guarantee of future gains" in their advertising (while taking out expensive full page ads in order to tout their past performance - at least they did back in the day..)

Re: Startup = Growth

#155
The discussion of expected return sounds good from an investors perspective, but founders have no diversification, so a 1% chance of $100m or 99% chance of wasting five years sounds pretty lousy. This is my biggest issue with the VC world from a founder's standpoint. The situation gets even worse once you throw the decreasing marginal utility of money into the mix, because now the expected value of $100m is not worth 10x as much to me as $10m. In terms of ability to change my life, $10m provides probably 50-70% of the value that $100m provides.

So if my odds of succeeding with a $10m payout from a bootstrapped business are 10%, and my odds of succeeding with a $100m payout from a VC business are 1%, those expected returns are equal in math terms, but not utility terms, and I'd be crazy to raise money.

Re: Startup = Growth

#156
minor corrections:

"What matters is not the abolute number of new customers ..." should be "absolute"

in footnote 13:

"Though nominally acquisitions and sometimes on a scale …" should be "acquisitions ARE sometimes" I guess?

Re: Startup = Growth

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We need a "slow startup" movement. pg's definition of a startup is just one kind of startup. I like to call it the VC startup. It's an organization whose goal is to succeed big or fail, and fast. This "charter" is driven by the needs of investors, and I get that. It makes perfect sense, and from where pg's sitting, it's the attitude he needs to have to successfully manage his portfolio. But it's not the only way to g…

Couldn't agree more - let the entrepreneurs define and live the term "startup" - not the VCs. (PS: After sleeping over pg's essay, I found it much less convincing the next day - implicitly, he's mixing up price with value, ignoring the temporal nature of markets and of opportunities - Google couldn't have been a startup in 1989 and Ford was a startup in the 1910s - and disregarding multi-product and B2B startups (pre…

7% weekly growth may seem like BS, but it happens. The arbiter of this growth rate is a function of need and reach as PG said. To say it is BS while there is evidence the phenomenon is possible (having experienced it first hand and seeing friends achieve it for long periods of time) and that we even know the factors in it -- that is a self limiting belief indeed.

Re: Startup = Growth

#158
post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Couldn't agree more - let the entrepreneurs define and live the term "startup" - not the VCs. (PS: After sleeping over pg's essay, I found it much less convincing the next day - implicitly, he's mixing up price with value, ignoring the temporal nature of markets and of opportunities - Google couldn't have been a startup in 1989 and Ford was a startup in the 1910s - and disregarding multi-product and B2B startups (pre…

7% weekly growth may seem like BS, but it happens. The arbiter of this growth rate is a function of need and reach as PG said. To say it is BS while there is evidence the phenomenon is possible (having experienced it first hand and seeing friends achieve it for long periods of time) and that we even know the factors in it -- that is a self limiting belief indeed.

I am not terming that as BS because it's impossible - it's not. I'm saying it's not suitable for all businesses (it might be downright hara-kiri for some of them) - that alone should not disqualify them from being known or viewed as startups.

Re: Startup = Growth

#159
post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

OK, but you're making an observation without a solution... that kind of thing is pretty much irrelevant to people like Paul Graham and CEOs of startups, who have to make decisions about what things to do. You can call people immoral from the sidelines but it will have zero effect. My opinion is that corporations are essentially "amoral" -- not immoral. Morality simply doesn't enter into any substantive decision. Goog…

I appreciate your response, and I fully understand the realistic angle that you have provided. But I have to clarify that I am not calling pg immoral. I am suggesting the essay could be. People outside the game industry may not get the Zynga problem, but you can also look at, say, Groupon's controversies. "Immoral" could indeed be too strong a word, but I believe few will disagree that aggressive growth strategies ha…

OK... well I think your point is that PG's essay is "amoral", which is true. It doesn't say anything about whether hyper-growth is a thing we should value (as human beings, not as money making machines).

Actually ALL his essays are amoral. PG is very precise. He doesn't advocate specific things; he lays out a set of deductions. You will come to the same conclusions IF you have the values he supposes. IF you value this, then you should believe that. Which is a true statement regardless of what you believe.

My point is that amoral != immoral. But I think you are saying they're the same -- that all decisions must have a moral component or they are immoral.

I agree that hyper aggressive growth doesn't always produce the kinds of companies that society "should" want... but sometimes it does! It's probably impossible to separate the two, not least because everyone has different opinions on what's valuable.

Re: Startup = Growth

#160

The discussion of expected return sounds good from an investors perspective, but founders have no diversification, so a 1% chance of $100m or 99% chance of wasting five years sounds pretty lousy. This is my biggest issue with the VC world from a founder's standpoint. The situation gets even worse once you throw the decreasing marginal utility of money into the mix, because now the expected value of $100m is not worth…

The whole 1% of $100M versus 10% of $10M calculation vastly oversimplifies the outcome of these companies as binary. This is totally wrong.

In my experience in silicon valley, people start with building something small/simple (but in a big market), get little drips of funding from investors as they show progress. If they fail at any point along the way, there's value in what they've created, and they exit for whatever they get. The later you exit, typically the further along you get, and the bigger the exit. That's why the diversity of outcomes in the valley are everything from zero to billions, and companies raise anywhere from zero to a dozen rounds of funding.

At any inflection point in the business, you have lots of options: you can sell, raise more money, raise more and cash out some shares, you can quit, you can make yourself chairman and have your cofoudner run it, you can do nothing and grow it organically, etc., etc.

Each one of the choices above are part of your arsenal of options at almost any point. The people who choose to raise tons of money, not cash out at all, and then who fail- well, they made a series of active decisions to do all of that. They're big boys.

My point is, when you're building a company you can make a lot of choices along the way, and it's not just setting out for a suicide run of either 1% of $100M or 10% of $10M. Choosing to raise outside financing is sort of like deciding whether or not you want a cofounder (or 2, or 3) - it just another form of business partner. You get less %, but hopefully they add to the business in a meaningful way that leaves you better off.

Post reply on HN