What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?
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What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?
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Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?
#2> But here’s the most telling data point from the school’s National Student Clearinghouse data: Over 60% of WKU-admitted applicants who don’t attend WKY don’t enroll anywhere. Not at a competitor, not at a community college — nowhere. Colleges are still competing with one another, but increasingly, they’re competing with the labor market itself.
Labor shortages are leading to college credentials not being needed. This is objectively good (as college debt and the time opportunity cost is avoided for an unnecessary credential), and hopefully will continue as demographic dynamics continue in the US. Is it good or bad the US has many colleges that will close because they are no longer needed due to a slowly declining fertility rate? It just is.
Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?
#3> But here’s the most telling data point from the school’s National Student Clearinghouse data: Over 60% of WKU-admitted applicants who don’t attend WKY don’t enroll anywhere. Not at a competitor, not at a community college — nowhere. Colleges are still competing with one another, but increasingly, they’re competing with the labor market itself. Labor shortages are leading to college credentials not being needed. Thi…
They won't close. They will just rely more heavily on foreign students. The primary focus of academia is to remain employed, not to serve the needs of the domestic student population.
Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?
#4> But here’s the most telling data point from the school’s National Student Clearinghouse data: Over 60% of WKU-admitted applicants who don’t attend WKY don’t enroll anywhere. Not at a competitor, not at a community college — nowhere. Colleges are still competing with one another, but increasingly, they’re competing with the labor market itself. Labor shortages are leading to college credentials not being needed. Thi…
They won't close. They will just rely more heavily on foreign students. The primary focus of academia is to remain employed, not to serve the needs of the domestic student population.
Nearly 20 Percent Fewer International Students Traveled to the U.S. in August - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45503960 - October 2025
U.S. colleges poised to close in next decade, expert says - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45171434 - September 2025
Looming 'demographic cliff': Fewer college students and fewer graduate - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42634596 - January 2025
Predicting College Closures and Financial Distress [pdf] - https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/working-... - December 2024
BestColleges: Tracking College Closures and Mergers - https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/closed-colleges-list-s...
(At least 84 public or nonprofit colleges have closed, merged, or announced closures or mergers since March 2020 as of this comment; I think the evidence is strong smaller for profit schools with enrollments <1k will continue to close well into the future)
Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?
#5> But here’s the most telling data point from the school’s National Student Clearinghouse data: Over 60% of WKU-admitted applicants who don’t attend WKY don’t enroll anywhere. Not at a competitor, not at a community college — nowhere. Colleges are still competing with one another, but increasingly, they’re competing with the labor market itself. Labor shortages are leading to college credentials not being needed. Thi…
They won't close. They will just rely more heavily on foreign students. The primary focus of academia is to remain employed, not to serve the needs of the domestic student population.
Is there any profession where they aren't focused on staying employed?
Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?
#6[flagged]
Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?
#7Universities are responding by increasing the range of people they admit. If you consider universities farmers growing a crop of students that the government pays for, you'll see things play out like this.
You think to yourself "why would they admit people with really low scores and then inflate grades? That doesn't seem like educating people" but the answer is that they're responding to a crop with shrinking yield by expanding what they're willing to farm.
Hence all those bogus subjects and stuff which people are getting degrees in.
Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?
#8> But here’s the most telling data point from the school’s National Student Clearinghouse data: Over 60% of WKU-admitted applicants who don’t attend WKY don’t enroll anywhere. Not at a competitor, not at a community college — nowhere. Colleges are still competing with one another, but increasingly, they’re competing with the labor market itself. Labor shortages are leading to college credentials not being needed. Thi…
They won't close. They will just rely more heavily on foreign students. The primary focus of academia is to remain employed, not to serve the needs of the domestic student population.
The supply of foreign students does depends on their career prospects in the US(which is getting worse at least in tech) and also the current administration is weighing policies that would cap intake of foreign students.
https://thebusinessfrontier.com/trump-tells-universities-to-...
Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?
#9Earlier quoted context omitted.
They won't close. They will just rely more heavily on foreign students. The primary focus of academia is to remain employed, not to serve the needs of the domestic student population.
Is there any profession where they aren't focused on staying employed?
You mean, is there any state funded system in which the primary drive of the system is to elrotect and expand itself, even at the expense of providing the good ir service for which it was created?
History says no...
Re: What happens to college towns after peak 18-year-old?
#10> But here’s the most telling data point from the school’s National Student Clearinghouse data: Over 60% of WKU-admitted applicants who don’t attend WKY don’t enroll anywhere. Not at a competitor, not at a community college — nowhere. Colleges are still competing with one another, but increasingly, they’re competing with the labor market itself. Labor shortages are leading to college credentials not being needed. Thi…
They won't close. They will just rely more heavily on foreign students. The primary focus of academia is to remain employed, not to serve the needs of the domestic student population.
There are people who will read this, agree with this, and still not realise how absolutely fucked everything is.