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It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

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Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#101

Post by codyb »

moistoreos wrote: post #100
karel-3d wrote: post #83

I don't like Ed Zitron automatic dismissal of everything AI and the constant profanities in his writing are getting old, and it's usually not very well structured, but that said... I like the perspective he has about the money involved. https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-case-against-generative-ai/ OpenAI needs 1 trillion dollars in next four years just to keep existing. That's more than all currently available capital,…

You could literally eliminate homelessness, world hunger, and fully pay health care costs in that same timeframe with much less cash.

Fully pay health care costs for _who_ for four years with 1 trillion dollars?

Doesn't America alone already spend 2 or 3 trillion a year on healthcare?

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#102

Post by mattgreenrocks »

karel-3d wrote: post #83

I don't like Ed Zitron automatic dismissal of everything AI and the constant profanities in his writing are getting old, and it's usually not very well structured, but that said... I like the perspective he has about the money involved. https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-case-against-generative-ai/ OpenAI needs 1 trillion dollars in next four years just to keep existing. That's more than all currently available capital,…

All that money and they’ve been trying to shy away from talk of AGI recently to lower expectations.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#103

Post by bigyabai »

codyb wrote: post #101
moistoreos wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You could literally eliminate homelessness, world hunger, and fully pay health care costs in that same timeframe with much less cash.

Fully pay health care costs for _who_ for four years with 1 trillion dollars? Doesn't America alone already spend 2 or 3 trillion a year on healthcare?

> Doesn't America alone already spend 2 or 3 trillion a year on healthcare?

There's a huge difference between "paying for healthcare" and "paying a healthcare provider" here in the United States. Oftentimes the latter has 2 or 3 additional zeroes attached.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#104

Post by gooodvibes »

karel-3d wrote: post #83

I don't like Ed Zitron automatic dismissal of everything AI and the constant profanities in his writing are getting old, and it's usually not very well structured, but that said... I like the perspective he has about the money involved. https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-case-against-generative-ai/ OpenAI needs 1 trillion dollars in next four years just to keep existing. That's more than all currently available capital,…

> OpenAI needs 1 trillion dollars in next four years just to keep existing.

More like $115 billion based on your own link. The $1T is a guess based on promises made, far from "needs to spend that much just to exist".

Spending $30 billion a year doesn't sound that apocalyptic.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#105

Post by Insanity »

aerhardt wrote: post #70
kllrnohj wrote: post #13

Platforms usually deliver significant value that is hard to replicate. OpenAI doesn't have any such thing. It's trivially replaced, and there's many competitors already. OpenAI is ahead of the curve, but they don't seem to have any particular way to do sticky capture. Migrating to a different LLM is an afternoon's work at most, not nearly the complexity of porting an app between OS' or creating a robust hardware driv…

Yeah, I'm extremely loyal to ChatGPT Plus and Codex, but is't because OpenAI has a native Mac app that I like, and Codex included with Plus and has served me well enough to not look at Claude. I like GPT-5 quite a bit as a user. I'll concede none of these are small things - they've had my money for 2+ years - but they're not gigantic advantages either. At an enterprise level however, in the current workload I am deal…

I don’t think they will get any moat. I might be wrong on this of course, but I don’t see a killer feature for these stochastic parrots that can’t be easily replicated

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#106

Post by RussianCow »

mgh95 wrote: post #54
yubblegum wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Migrating to a different LLM is an afternoon's work at most, not nearly the complexity of porting an app between OS' or creating a robust hardware driver model. I question this. Each vendor's offering has its own peculiar prompt quirks, does it not? Theoretically, switching RDBMS vendors (say Ora to Ingress) was also "an afernoon's work" but it never happened. The minutia is sticky with these sort of almost-but-not…

> I question this. Each vendor's offering has its own peculiar prompt quirks, does it not? Theoretically, switching RDBMS vendors (say oracle to postgres) was also "an afernoon's work" but it never happened. The minutia is sticky with these sort of almost-but-not 'universal' interfaces. The bigger problem is that there was never a way to move data between oracle->postgres in pure data form (i.e. point pgsql at your o…

Moreover, it's trivial to run several LLMs side-by-side for a while and measure the success of each, then migrate to the one that performs the best. And you can even migrate in-progress chats since all the context is passed on each call anyway.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#107

Post by AgentME »

karel-3d wrote: post #83

I don't like Ed Zitron automatic dismissal of everything AI and the constant profanities in his writing are getting old, and it's usually not very well structured, but that said... I like the perspective he has about the money involved. https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-case-against-generative-ai/ OpenAI needs 1 trillion dollars in next four years just to keep existing. That's more than all currently available capital,…

Hasn't he been saying that OpenAI is going to shut down every year for the last few years now? And that models are never going to get better than they were in 2022? I think he's pretty clearly a grifter chasing an audience that wants to be reassured that big tech is going away soon.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#108

Post by CuriouslyC »

mattgreenrocks wrote: post #102
karel-3d wrote: post #83

I don't like Ed Zitron automatic dismissal of everything AI and the constant profanities in his writing are getting old, and it's usually not very well structured, but that said... I like the perspective he has about the money involved. https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-case-against-generative-ai/ OpenAI needs 1 trillion dollars in next four years just to keep existing. That's more than all currently available capital,…

All that money and they’ve been trying to shy away from talk of AGI recently to lower expectations.

A lot of this is because there isn't a good definition of AGI. Look at Sama's recent interviews, that's how he deflects, along with the statement about the Turing test having ultimately been inconsequential. They have an internal definition of AGI that is "the model can perform the vast majority of economically viable tasks at the level of the highest humans" which isn't the story the investors are expecting when they hear AGI, so they're trying to stay mum to truthfully roadmap AGI while not blatantly lying to capital.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#109

Post by yen223 »

kllrnohj wrote: post #13

Platforms usually deliver significant value that is hard to replicate. OpenAI doesn't have any such thing. It's trivially replaced, and there's many competitors already. OpenAI is ahead of the curve, but they don't seem to have any particular way to do sticky capture. Migrating to a different LLM is an afternoon's work at most, not nearly the complexity of porting an app between OS' or creating a robust hardware driv…

A lot of the points also apply to Google as a search engine, yet we're still seeing Google owning about 90% of search engine usage.

Re: It's OpenAI's world, we're just living in it

#110

Post by vbezhenar »

moistoreos wrote: post #100
karel-3d wrote: post #83

I don't like Ed Zitron automatic dismissal of everything AI and the constant profanities in his writing are getting old, and it's usually not very well structured, but that said... I like the perspective he has about the money involved. https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-case-against-generative-ai/ OpenAI needs 1 trillion dollars in next four years just to keep existing. That's more than all currently available capital,…

You could literally eliminate homelessness, world hunger, and fully pay health care costs in that same timeframe with much less cash.

Cash is just paper. You can't eat paper.
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