AI is not able to replace good devs. I am assuming that nobody sane is claiming such a thing today. But, it can probably replace bad and mediocre devs. Even today.
In my org we had 3 devs who went through a 6-month code boot camp and got hired a few years ago when it was very difficult to find good devs. They struggled. I would give them easy tasks and then clean up their PRs during review. And then AI tools got much better and it started outperforming these guys. We had to let two go. And third one quit on his own.
We still hire devs. But have become very reluctant to hire junior devs. And will never hire someone from a code boot camp. And we are not the only ones. I think most boot camps have gone out of business for this reason.
Will AI tools eventually get good enough to start replacing good devs? I don't know. But the data so far shows that these tools keep getting better over time. Anybody who argues otherwise has their heads firmly stuck in sand.
In the early US history approximately 90% of the population was involved in farming. Over the years things changed. Now about 2% has anything to do with farming. Fewer people are farming now. But we have a lot more food and a larger variety available. Technology made that possible.
It is totally possible that something like that could happen to the software development industry as well. How fast it happens totally depends on how fast do the tools improve.