121–130 of 193 posts
Its not a bubble because the economy isnt actually about trade any more, its about power. The people in power now know that control over technology is the name of the game. It doesnt have to have a return on investment, it has to enable control of public opinion and eventually, robots.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There are only two ways it could: either power cost increases which only make up a small portion of cost of living or somehow believing it responsible for inflation. But the latter doesn't make any sense, especially as they believe the money spent to be 'lost'.
How does that not make sense? Inflation is lost money from a consumer viewpoint.
> No nation has seen an immigration boom-bust cycle near the scale of the one roiling America. Net immigration nearly quadrupled after 2020 to peak at well over 3mn in 2023, but the backlash led by President Donald Trump sent that figure into freefall. This year only around 400,000 net new arrivals are expected, and that could be the trend in the coming years. If true, that's <1% of the population?
Key quote: > The hundreds of billions of dollars companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40 per cent share of US GDP growth this year. In other words, investment in AI is a massive private-sector stimulus program, powering economic growth. Questions for which no one knows the answer include: * Will these AI investments earn a positive rate of return in the aggregate? * Without these investments o…
is this real? by first look USA only spent like 4% of GDP on space stuff at the peak of space race. 40% is insane.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Without these investments on AI and their second-order economic effects, would the US economy be growing? It's only 40% of the growth so.. yes.
I wouldn't be so sure, especially since we know a lot of it is actually vendor financing/circular financing (Nvidia give money to OpenAI who buy dedicated datacenter from oracle who buy GPUs from Nvidia), so a part of the growth might have to be counted twice, or more.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's too bad we also can't really agree on what value is. A decade or two ago, I'd have told you the companies that are building new technologies (smartphones, streaming services, etc) were creating value. I don't think that at all anymore, even retroactively.
>It's too bad we also can't really agree on what value is. This is fortunately a problem that economics has already solved: value is what people are willing to pay for. Any other definition involves imposing someone's own subjective judgement on what's valuable.
Sloppy opinion piece. Stock market increases are bad because it makes rich people happy, but select US sectors are lagging behind Europe which is somehow also bad. Low immigration resulting in a labor force squeeze is bad, but this is offset by reduced demand because of AI, which is, you guessed it, also bad lol
None of this is contradictory.
Its not a bubble because the economy isnt actually about trade any more, its about power. The people in power now know that control over technology is the name of the game. It doesnt have to have a return on investment, it has to enable control of public opinion and eventually, robots.
Something like 70-80%+ of US stock market ownership is institutional, which ultimately means overwhelmingly pension and insurance funds. I'd imagine much of the rest is individual investors' pension savings. Bubbles can grow fine so long as no one wants their money back. But eventually they will, and then valuations will be real. When all these boomers draw their savings and buy themselves annuities, what's going to…
Key quote: > The hundreds of billions of dollars companies are investing in AI now account for an astonishing 40 per cent share of US GDP growth this year. In other words, investment in AI is a massive private-sector stimulus program, powering economic growth. Questions for which no one knows the answer include: * Will these AI investments earn a positive rate of return in the aggregate? * Without these investments o…
is this real? by first look USA only spent like 4% of GDP on space stuff at the peak of space race. 40% is insane.